- US equity indices are enjoying the strongest rally since late January, driven
by positive comments from Citigroup and a general rebound in financial stocks
around the globe. Front-month crude continues to strengthen towards $50 ahead
of this weekend's OPEC meeting, where another output cut potentially remains on
the table. Spot gold dipped below $900 for the first time in nearly a month.
The better risk appetite has taken a bite out of Treasury prices. The 2-year
yield has climbed back above 1% ahead of this afternoons $34B 3-year note
- Financials are rocking this morning after weeks and in some cases months
without much inspiring news. All the enthusiasm was touched off by Citi CEO
Vikram Pandit, who told the bank's employees in an internal memo that Citi was
profitable in the first two months of 2009. Later a filing from Citi disclosed
that January and February revenues were $19B, making the bank profitable and
representing its best quarter since Q3 2007. Unsurprisingly, Pandit ‚Äúremains
disappointed with the movements in share price.‚ÄĚ Note that yesterday the WSJ
reported that Bank of America
CEO Lewis has been talking up BoA to differentiate the bank from Citi. Lewis
has repeatedly insisted that Bank of America needs no more government money,
while suggesting that Citi probably will. Shares of both Citi and BoA were up
25% in early trading, while other major banks were up 10-15%.
- But today's rally aside, multiple other headlines bode ill for the
financials. Earlier today reports circulated that the SEC will not suspend
mark-to-market accounting (note that on 3/12 the House Financial Sevices
subcommittee will hold hearings with the SEC and FASB on mark-to-market
accounting). In his speech this morning, Ben Bernanke strongly endorsed the
principle of mark-to-market accounting while also noting he believes current
conditions may distort marking to market. Meanwhile the newly-independent
analyst Meredith Whitney warned that credit cards will be the next credit
crunch, insisting that credit card lines will be cut materially, reducing
consumer outlook and spending. Whitney boosted her prior estimates of the
amount credit-card lines will be cut in 2009 to more than $2T and $2.7T by the
end of 2010. Also note that overnight the FDIC's Bair said emerging plans to
remove troubled assets from banks could force some firms to record large
- Just a few days after President Obama said the defense sector is #1 on his
wasteful spending to-do list, Morgan Stanley took a swipe at the industry,
cutting the US defense and aerospace sector to cautious from in-line. Meanwhile
defense giant and Dow component United Technologies cut its 2009 forecast and
announced plans to lay off 4% of its workforce. UTX's CEO said the move would
protect profitability and ‚Äúposition the company for resumed earnings growth in
2010.‚ÄĚ These developments aren't dampening the rally for UTX, which is up 6% in
early trading, while other defense names are underperforming markets. In other
earnings news, Avnet cut its Q3 forecast, Kroger reported Q4 in line with all
expectations and JA Solar missed Q4 earnings estimates by a country mile.
- In currencies, EUR/USD has rallied above the 1.28 level and above last
Friday's post-US payrolls high. The cross has managed to shrug off dovish
interest rate comments from ultra-hawk ECB member Weber, who noted that the
Euro Zone economy could still shrink in early 2010 and rates could move below
the current level of 1.50%. Note that Weber also insisted that 1% was about the
lower limit for ECB rates, although this barrier was not set in stone. Some
potential central bank action on the Eastern European front added to the risk
reportedly warned numerous banks against selling Hryvnia below the official
bank rate. Dealers were also noting that the Hungarian Central Bank said it
would sell euros from EU funds to stem further losses on the Forint.
- In other currency news, Canadian Finance Minister Flaherty noted the upcoming
jobs data set for release on Friday was not likely to be good number. However,
the CAD was firmer throughout most of the morning, helped by energy and basic
commodity momentum. There were some signs of stabilization in China
after it noted its Feb auto sales encountered their first advance in four
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
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The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
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