- Equities: Lufthansa [LHA.GE] Reported FY08 Net profit ÔéČ599M below
expectations of ÔéČ712Me. It operating profit was ÔéČ1.35B and inline with its
guidance issued back on Feb 3rd. Revenues came in at ÔéČ24.9B slightly better
than forecasts of ÔéČ24.67B. The airline expected FY09 operating profit to be
'distinctly positive' but considerable lower than 2008 levels and that revenues
would increase due to acquisitions. It forecasted revenues and profit
increasing in 2010 if economy recovers as expected in Q3 of 2009 || Aer Lingus
[AERL.UK] Reported FY08 Operating loss of ÔéČ17.6M worse than the loss of ÔéČ4.9M
expected citing falling consumer sentiment, a restructuring and
higher fuel prices for the result. Revenues were ÔéČ1.36B slightly better than
ÔéČ1.36B forecasts. || Party Gaming [PRTY.UK] Reported its FY08 EBITDA $144.2M
just above estimates of $141.4M. Revenues were $472.9M in line with estimates
of $473M. The firm stated that it had made ÔÇťgood progressÔÇŁ in the first few
weeks of 2009, even in a ÔÇťhighly competitiveÔÇŁ market to the beginning of the
year. || Axel Springer [SPR.GE] Reported that its FY08 Sales were up 5.8% y/y
but noted a difficult advertising market in 2009 and would not be able to match
its prior year results || UBS [UBSN.SZ] Adjusted its FY08 net profit lower by
CHF1.19B due to US Department of Justice settlement. It now would have a net
loss of CHF20.9B for 2008 after the DOJ adjustment || JC Decaux [DEC.FR]
reported its FY08 Net at ÔéČ108.1M, below the expected ÔéČ192M and Op profit at
ÔéČ236.4M, also below expectations at ÔéČ309.7M. Firm will not pay FY08 dividend
and stated that it expected a decline in FY09 underlying revenue with Q1 Rev
falling 10% y/y. Shares have traded sharply lower following this guidance. ||
ArcelorMittal MT.NV: Firm does not to raise additional capital || Hannover Re
[HNR1.GE] Reported Q4 Net ÔéČ15.8M better than the lossof ÔéČ3.1M expected. The
gross premiums came in at ÔéČ2.02B above the ÔéČ1.91B forecasts. The company
reaffirmed FY09 ROE in excess of 15%. CEO Zeller commented that the 2008 loss
was due entirely to investment-side problems, while underwriting business was
- Speakers: China PBoC commented that companies are less worried about economic
weakness in Q2 and that the entrepreneur sentiment was recovering. the PBoC
bank lending index had risen sharply || Moody's commented that Russia
was 'not yet on brink' of any ratings cut. Moody's stated that Russia
had the ability to meet up to 18 months of its debt obligations. It did note
that Russia was
'no longer in free fall' and that the 'dirty float' of its currency moves in
the right direction. || Polish Ministe stated the it expected around PLN17B
from EU in 2009 and would accelerate EU fund usage for investments
- In Currencies: USD and the JPY exhibited some strength in the aftermath of
the 'dismal' Chinese trade number and its components. Chinese exports plunged
by a record last month helping to revive demand for risk aversion plays. The
Sharply weaker trade data out of China
have put commodity currencies on the defensive as AUD, CAD and NZD moved lower
in the session. The USD retraced from its best levels after Moody's commented
that Russia was 'not yet on brink' of ratings cut and the country had the
ability to pay its exiting debt obligations for a period of up to 18 months
helped to offset the initial impact o the China trade numbers. G20 FinMins meet
this weekend but no major action expected on the currency front.
- Fixed income: The Bank of England's historic reverse gilt auction, funded
with printed money, is underway, with competitive offers to due by . The Yield on the benchmark 10y
Gilt is down 2.5bps at 3.09%. German government bonds have been on a weaker footing
with both supply and stronger equities to contend with. In a strong auction ,
the Bundesbank sold ÔéČ6.3B in a new 1.25% 2y Schatz. US
Treasuries have regained some ground lost yesterday, with a steeper yield curve
and the yield on the 10y Note back below the 3.00% level
- In Energy: OPEC Delegate commented that there was no need to hurry into new
round of supply cuts if market keeps strengthening on existing curbs. Apr NYMEX
crude at $45.40/barrel and little changed ahead of the NY morning. OPEC meets
on March 15th to discuss possible action necessary to stabilize the oil markets
|| South Africa Eskom's Demers: Concerned about future supplies of coal in
country. It would assess coal reserves over the next 18 to 22 months in
conjunction with S. African government and would incorporate neighboring
countries (last reserves assessment made back in 1987). Eskom expected coal
consumption to increase up by 40% and its own consumption rising by 55% between
2008 and 2018 || Tullow Oil [TLW.UK] Reported FY08 Op Profit of ┬ú300M compared
to forecasts of ┬ú312M. Revenues were ┬ú692M below consensus of ┬ú730M. For 2009,
the Group is focused on progressing Phase 1 of the Jubilee project in Ghana,
fast tracking the commercialization of Ugandan reserves and executing selective
high-impact exploration and appraisal campaigns || Cairn Energy [CNE.UK]
reportedly to issue up to 6.5M shares (about 5% of shares outstanding). Stated
that it is prudent to strengthen equity capital base at current conditions. ||
Credit Crisis: Japan
to start purchasing stocks from banks portfolio's on Thursday, Mar 12th. Japan
would start buying shares from the investment portfolios of the nation's banks
from tomorrow in an effort to strengthen their balance sheets and encourage
lending. The Bank's Shareholding Purchase Corp (Gov't controlled entity) will
conduct the purchases of equities.
*** NOTES ***
- Dealers noting that data out of emerging countries over the last 24 hours
were not spectacular. The China
Feb trade balance and components were 'an eye opener' as the surplus shrunk to
just under $5B compared to $28B expected. On Tuesday, Brazil Q4 GDP contracted
more than forecasts at -3.6%. Also notable was Japan Jan Machine orders which
fell for the fourth consecutive month.
- After Tuesday's equity euphoria, European dealers noting comments from IMF in
which slow action of banks in advanced economies could 'jeopardize' expected
economic recovery in 2010
- European equities managed to shrug off the initial wave of risk aversion set
off by the Chinese trade data. Moody's comments on Russia
sovereign rating helped session sentiment and European auto sector firm on
potential merger-related rumors.
- Looking Ahead:
- 6:30 (SZ) Switzerland to sell 2.5% Notes due 2036
- 7:00 (GE) German Jan Factory Orders M/M: -2.0% expected v -6.9% prior; Y/Y:
-28.3% expected v -25.1% prior
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage applications w/e March 6th: No expectations v 12.6%
- 8:00 (BZ) Brazil Feb IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.55% expected v 0.48% prior;
Y/Y: 5.90% expected v 5.84% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Jan New Housing Price Index: -0.2% expected v -0.1% prior
- (UK) Bank of England to conduct reverse Gilt auction, purchasing ┬ú2B in 2014
to 2018 Gilts
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Mon 19 Feb 2018
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