Wednesday March 11, 2009 - 15:13:27 GMT
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Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com
Has a dollar correction arrived?
â€˘ China vehicle sales surged 25 percent in February, the first gain in four months, after the government cut taxes on some models. (Bloomberg)
â€˘ Russia is â€śnot yet on the brinkâ€ť of a credit-rating downgrade by Moodyâ€™s Investors Service as the ruble and foreign reserves stabilize and the government resists taking corporate debt obligations. (Bloomberg)
â€śA good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving.â€ť
FX Trading â€“ Has a dollar correction arrived?
Our story, as you know, is not a positive one when it concerns the future of the euro. But, that is our story, and it may at times have little to do with the true storyâ€”price action! Mr. Price Action is always the final arbiter.
Watching the euro of late, and the continued ugly news in the background (evaporating German exports, no real cohesion on Central/Eastern Europe rescue, and ECB looking to go lower on rates, the euro has acted very well relative to the news, i.e. old timers might say â€śthe tone of the euro has been good.â€ť
And a lot of the Elliott Wave guys have been pecking away at the euro in here, in expectation of a â€śsubstantialâ€ť correction. And there would be no better time for a decent or substantial euro bounce than now ... as we seem to be entering a bout of risk appetite supported by:
â€˘ Stocks staging a very big bounce that could have some legs
â€˘ Bond prices under pressure and specs either shorting or wanting to badly
â€˘ Oil back in the mid-40â€™s despite no real sign that global demand has picked up anywhere
â€˘ Emerging currencies staging a bounce higher against the buck
â€˘ Gold moving lower in line with Mr. Greenback and reaffirming its new positive correlation
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Black Swan Capital LLC
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