- Traders seem to be cautiously optimistic this morning, with the US indices
extending yesterday's big rally with modest gains, although indices are off
their best levels mid morning. Market participants continue to wonder how long
a bear market rally can last, given the horrible underlying economic situation,
with data out off Europe and Asia
overnight reminding everyone of the severe state of the global economy.
Front-month crude is back around $45 as OPEC officials continue their
back-and-forth in the press over whether to cut or not to cut this weekend.
Government bond prices remain lower as markets digest a historic reverse
auction of GILTS in the UK
and a 10-year reopening later this afternoon. The US
benchmark yield is gaining some traction above 3% heading into the auction
- Financial stocks are reprising their big gains from yesterday, with Citi up
14%, BoA up 10%, and other major bank stocks up 4-6%. Credit card names are
under pressure after Goldman Sachs cut American Express to Sell from Neutral.
Shares of AXP are down 5%, while competitors Visa and Mastercard are down 2-3%
in sympathy. Goldman analysts also released a report overnight noting that JP
Morgan, Bank of New York and Morgan Stanley will likely be able to repay TARP
funds over the course of 2009. Note that the IMF's Strauss Kahn said overnight
that the US
needs to clearly state exactly how it plans to help clean up bank balance
sheets, as slow action on banks could jeopardize expected recovery in 2010.
Shares of Ford are up 7% in early trading.
- Ford announced that it has reached a wage deal with the UAW, noting that the
new arrangement is a key move in making the business competitive with foreign
‚Äútransplant automakers.‚ÄĚ Ford and the UAW have agreed to suspend COLA and
various performance payments, overtime and bonuses, among other initiatives.
According to Ford, the deal brings its average hourly wage rate to $55/hour in
total, making them roughly competitive with foreign automakers with operations
in the US. It
expects to reach parity with foreign US
manufacturers, at $48-$49/hr, in about two years.
- In other equity news, Staples missed earnings targets due to charges stemming
from the Corporate Express takeover, and missed on the top line. On the
conference call, a Staples executive warned that the company sees soft sales
trends for all of 2009. Semi manufacturer National Semiconductor surprised with
solid positive earnings in Q3, although the company also said it would cut 12%
of its workforce. NSM fell 5% after the open before recovering somewhat. Solar
manufacturer LDK reported a bigger than expected Q4 loss and guided below par.
LDK was down 7% and headed lower mid morning. Consumer-oriented resort operator
Vail blew out estimates and offered bullish guidance for the year, noting a big
improvement in bookings over levels seen at the end of last year. Shares of MTN
were up 10%, although off their best levels. Note also that OWW and PCLN are off
8% a piece after Expedia launched a special flight promotion that waives selected
booking fees though 5/31.
- In currencies, the greenback saw its earlier gains erode during the New
York session as risk appetite bubbled up in European
equities and at the major US
bourses. Dealers are noting that Moody's comments that Russia was ‚Äúnot yet on
brink‚ÄĚ of a ratings given the fact that it has the funds to pay existing debt
obligations for up to 18 months helped offset the initial impact of the Chinese
trade numbers. In addition, the IMF said it reached an understanding with Ukraine
regarding its budget and is continuing discussions on releasing second tranche
of loans. The EUR/USD briefly tested above the 1.28 area before corporate
orders stemmed upside momentum and placed the pair back into its 1.2550-1.2800
consolidation range. CHF was mixed ahead of tomorrow's Swiss National Bank
interest rate decision. The market is expecting another 25bps cut and remains
on guard for any potential quantitative easing measures. Sterling
recovered from earlier lows against the USD but remained on soft footing
against both the JPY and EUR pairs. CAD was choppy throughout the session as it
balanced its relationship between global recession concerns on commodity demand
and the upcoming OPEC meeting in Vienna
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Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
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Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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