A quiet night.US equities provided no net direction, only
managing a small extension to the 2-day rally at the opening bell, but then
fading as energy stocks fell with the oil price. The S&P500 is unchanged as
we write, and the Euro-stoxx closed down 0.5%. WTI oil is currently down almost
7%, attributed mainly to yesterday's China trade numbers showing a plunge in imports. That
data also hit copper, down 3%. The overall tone towards risk was mixed: gold's
+1% and US 10 year treasuries 8bp rally tilting slightly towards risk aversion,
but the US dollar's 1% fall suggesting the opposite. Currency markets are
possibly building expectations from this weekend's G20 meeting.
NZD replicated the AUD's price action, rallying
from 0.4980 to 0.5070, and consolidating above 0.5050. Yesterday's minor data
releases were largely ignore by the market, participants more concerned with
positioning ahead of today's RBNZ meeting.
After the China-export news led
sell-off late yesterday's domestic session, AUD consolidated for a few
hours above 0.64, before rallying to around 0.6520, and again consolidating
around 0.65. Given their similar price paths, AUD/NZD did little, ranging in
the 1.28 to 1.2870 area, with more time spent around the lower bound.
EUR moved 2 cents on the post-China news recovery,
up to 1.2815, and rests just below 1.28. Weak German data releases were
ignored. GBP was dull, relative to its past week's volatility,
recovering from 1.3660 to rest around 1.38. The most interesting move from the
majors was by JPY, strengthening from 98.70 to its current 97.20, in
what looked like a short-squeeze.
US federal budget deficit for Feb was $192.8bn, in line with market expectation.
Japanese machinery orders slump
continues in January. Orders
fell another 3.2% in the month to be down a whopping 39.5%yr.
UK visibles trade balance was -GBP7.7bn, roughly as expected. The trade deficit is
beginning to shrink after a decade of steadily expanding deficits.
Canadian new house prices fell 0.6%, as Canada's housing market takes a new leg down. This was
the steepest monthly decline in new house prices since 1991.
The RBNZ reviews the
OCR at 9am this morning, and given the market is divided between 50bp and 100bp
predictions, a surprise one way or the other is likely (unless, of course, we
get a neutral 75bp). A 50bp cut would likely see NZD higher, while 100bp would
do the opposite. Support and resistance levels are broadly 0.40 and 0.51,
respectively, and a break of either bound would be technically significant
β’ NZ Q4
Terms of Trade (11 March)
β’ NZ Agribiz
March 2009 (9 March)
β’ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (9 March)
β’ RBNZ March
MPS Preview (6 March)
β’ A changing
climate (4 March)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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