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Friday January 7, 2005 - 09:21:18 GMT

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FX Daily Technical Strategy

EUR/USD: The dollar gained a bit more on the single currency overnight moving down to a level near December’s spike and daily closing lows (1.3150). Interestingly, the move translated the most in terms of pips against the EUR and CHF when compared to the JPY and GBP.  We are not sure what can be made of this if anything; nevertheless, a mild bid in the pair has been dominant since the roll-over into London trading.  A considerable break in either direction is expected in the next 12 hours though as event risk becomes paramount. We feel a move higher is likely to stall at the confluence of the 61.8% of December’s range coupled with a trendline connecting December’s previous highs 1.3345/65.
Key levels: On the resistance side of things, we have laid out fib retracements using the session high and low. These levels combined with the larger scale fibs peg key resistance that may serve as a tipping point for those anticipating a larger retracement (1.3350/60). Subsequent to that, more levels of resistance come in near the 20-day EMA (1.3425/35).  Naturally, session highs will be the most considerable on a move beyond that. On the support side of the picture, December spike lows seem to have propped the pair on
London’s slip of the 3200 level with projections and historical levels indicative of 1.3100 and 1.3035/50 as probable regions of support. However, daily oscillators imply a base may have already been found at present pricing. Thus, session spike lows (1.3150) should be considered the most ominous support until 13:30 GMT – then all bets are off insofar as predicated S/R.

USD/JPY: The pair has been singled out since displaying the most active price action following the recent relief rally in the benchmark to Jan highs of 105.00.  This anomaly suggests the former intermediate trend of later December still weighs on the pair.  As we noted yesterday, “…Key resistance comes in at a major fib just over head (104.30) and we feel if the level breaks recent highs (105.00) should stymie the offer into the weekly close….”, and now that the level has been met, we feel that session ending events could potentially alter these levels. However, that of course depends on how much more the pair moves going into the event, as it has been dropping throughout the Asian session.  We feel a break lower will likely fall short of crossing the 10 and 20say EMA converging below. The technical amalgam is creating tight symmetrical range (105-103.50) and its is likely going to crowd the price in the coming trading daily sessions.  However the nature of the formation suggests a large correction may take place near the apex.  We will keep informed of this development as it unfurls.

Key levels: The confluence of the 61.8% of December’s range and 10/20-day EMA should prop thing on a move lower with the descending trendline connecting December’s spike highs shortly thereafter.


GBP/USD: Sterling specs are likely eying the USD with much greater consideration to that of the sterling at this moment in time. Since the pair in many ways is trading nearly identical to that of the EUR and the inverse to the CHF. The indication tells us that USD is the market’s primary concern at this moment in time. However, the daily studies do contrast somewhat to that of the GBP oscillators have begun to flat line in oversold while the EUR have just now crossed the boundary. The indication is accompanied by a waning ADX and double doji combination candle (GMT), while the pair hovers at key support just above the 100-day SMA and monthly pivot S2.
Key levels: On the resistance side, the former support, now resistance comes in near the range highs of 8900 and the 1.9000 figure thereafter. A break opening up the door to the diverging 10 and 20-day SMA (1.9175/1.9234) subsequent to that. On the support side, similarly to the EUR, session lows are the most formidable for the offer with a break opening up the doors to 1.8630 fib projection.

USD/CHF:The synthetic has rocketed off the DB formation at the key support level we were pinning about for over 2 weekly sessions at 1.1300. The move stalled just above Dec highs and the 23.6% of 1.1680-1.1300 near the 4 year old regression trend upper band (1.1700). Not unlike the diametric indication seen in EUR, daily oscillators have slammed through neutral territory from a diverging oversold level (while price moved to the same level) to overbought on the run, leaving us a little weary of the staying power behind this rally. Nevertheless, the 10 and 20-day EMA (1.1500) have accelerated rather ominously given the somewhat sideways trading of the last 24-hours, inspiring a cross near the roll-over.
Key levels: Going forward, we have key support coming into play at the confluence of the 38.2% of the rally and 10/20-day EMA crossover (1.1500). Prior to that level however, we have a barrier at 1.1605/15 and the previous session spike high of 1.1555/60. Resistance is scattered with 1825/30 the first major fib barrier.



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