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Monday March 16, 2009 - 10:18:48 GMT
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Forex Blog - European market Update: Risk barometers rise

Today 06:04am EST/10:04am GMT

European market Update: Risk barometers rise


- (JP) Japanese Gov't keeps its economic outlook unchanged; Economy in “Severe” state

- (CZ) Czech Feb PPI M/M: 0.3% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: -0.6% v -0.8%e

- (CZ) Czech Jan Exports Price Index: 3.3% v 1.2% prior; Import Price Index: 0.0% v -2.2% prior

- (TU) Turkey Feb Consumer Confidence: 74.0 v 71.6 prior

- (TU) Turkey Dec Unemployment Rate: 13.6% v 12.3% prior

- (SW) Sweden Feb Average House Prices (SEK): 1.73M v 1.92M prior

- (IT) Italy Feb Final CPI (NIC Incl Tobacco): M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.6%e

- (IT) Italy Feb Final CPI (EU Harmonized): M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5%e

- (NO) Norway Feb Trade Balance: NOK29.5B v NOK29.4B prior

- (EU) Euro-Zone Feb CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e; Core CPI Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.6%e

- (EU) Euro-Zone Q4 Employment Q/Q: -0.3% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.0% v 0.8% prior


- Equities: Barclays [BARC.UK] Commented that its business continued to perform well into 2009. It also noted it was maintaining a dialogue with HM Treasury and FSA over asset protection scheme. The firm held talks over iShare sales, no decision has been made ||Roche [ROG.SZ: Acquired Innovatis AG for €15M which would complement its product portfolio in the rapidly growing area of cellular analytics || SGL [SGL.GE] SKion purchased around 8% stake in company and sought to expand its stake nut would keep it below 25% || UBS [UBSN.SZ] Swiss press reported that the firm sought to cut 5,000 senior and management jobs (about 6.4% of workforce) over the next few weeks || Vodafone [VOD.UK], India's income tax department has expanded its tax liability probe related to Vodafone-Essar - Business Standard. Stated the investigation will now target offshore transactions associated with Vodafone's buyout of Hutchison Whampoa's 67% stake in an $11.1B deal in 2007. || Brit Insurance [BRE.UK], it has reportedly cancelled a planned £150M ($210M) rights offering - Sunday Telegraph. The report cites a lack of demand among investors for the decision. || Rio Tinto [RIO.UK], shareholders are seeking a 75% approval rate requirement for the proposed deal with Aluminum Corp of China - FT. The report cites the Association of British Insurers. Activist shareholders are seeking for have Chinalco deal classified as 'special resolution' deal that would require a higher shareholder approval level. || Hypo Real Estate [HRX.GE] German Sofin Chief reportedly stated its intention to nationalize the company, rejecting J.C. Flowers conditions - German press. Further, it was added that the co's collapse is worse than that collapse of Lehman. SoFFin met with representatives from Flowers on Sunday and plan to meet again today. It is expected that the Lower house of Parliament will discuss new nationalization law, that bill Is expected to be passed by Friday. ** Note ** JC FLowers (holds 24% in the company) proposed that German Government acquires 633M shares (75% stake) at €3.00/shr in an effort to recapitalize the company. ||Linde [LIN.GE] reported its FY08 Net at €776M, below the expected €783.3M, Op Profit at €2.56B, ahead of the €1.56B expected and Revenues of €12.7B, which was inline with the €12.8B expected. Firm put its Engineering Backlog at €3.06B (+4.3% y/y) and stated that it will not reach 2010 targets of Op Profit €3.0B and ROE of 13%. ||

- Speakers: || Russia proposed that IMF study the possibility of a super-national reserve currency and sought effective regulatory institutions on a global scale, need global risk-management system. It would like to see G20 meeting change an 'obsolescent' economic order ||

|| Polish Central Banker Noga commented that its monetary policy remained in easing phase but that did not imply an interest rate cut this month meeting. He noted that the PLN currency was fundamentally stronger than 4.50 against Euro || EU Barroso commented that one needs to restore confidence to ensure economic recovery; avoid protectionism || UK PM Brown also reiterated the importance of avoiding protectionism and stated that G20 needs to help emerging economies. Brown did note that a large contraction in global trade has occurred.

- In Currencies: The currency markets focused their attention towards the equity market movement which were broadly higher despite the weekend G20 offering little concrete measures || Russia proposes that IMF study the possibility of a super-national reserve currency adding that reserve currencies needed to be diversified || GBP was firmer in the session and dealers noted that the Pound was helped by comments from Barclays, which stated it made a strong start to 2009 and confirmed it is looking to sell its £5B iShares unit,

- Fixed income: BOE announced it would seek offers for 6 eligible Gilts in 10 to 25 year basket in the second phase of its Quantitative Easing scheme. The list of six eligible stocks range from the 4.75% 2020 out to the 4.25% 2032 which contrasts with last weeks operation which targeted stocks ranging from 2014 to 2018

- In Energy: OPEC left their existing production targets unchanged at its weekend meeting. OPEC's next meeting would be in May. || OPEC Sec Gen El-Badri commented that a 93% compliance with OPEC quotas would be a success. Delay oil and gas projects may rise beyond current 35 level|| Saudi Oil Min Naimi commented that he was pleased with outcome of summit. He noted that current resources are estimated to last around 80 years and that the days of oil as main fuel source are 'far from over' . he reiterated that the current economic situation inhibited energy investments || Statoil [STL.NO] Announced a gas discovery in the Norwegian Sea at its Wildcat Well 6705/10-1. Four other discoveries made at south, east of well with the size of discovery estimated at 16B Cubic Meters ||

*** NOTES ***

- The weekend G20 Finance Minister reiterated the view that National governments should take appropriate actions and noted that fiscal steps to be implemented quickly

- Bernanke offers hope saying recession could end in 2009. Fed Chairman noted that the unemployment outlook remained severe but declined to comment on whether he saw the jobless rate climbing into double digits.

- Nonetheless equity markets were firmer. Geithner bank bailout plan this week ???

- Opec left its quotas unchanged and sought greater compliance with the prior 4.2M bpd cuts. Its next planned meeting in May.

- Looking Ahead:

- 8:30 (CL) Chile Feb Copper Exports: No estimates versus $1.49B prior

- 8:30 (CA) Canada Q4 Capacity Utilization rate: 75.0% expected versus 77.4% prior

- 8:30 (US) Mar Empire manufacturing: -30.80 expected versus -34.65 prior

- 9:00 (US) Jan Net Long-term TIC Flows: $45.0B expected versus $34.8B prior; Total Net TIC Flows: No estimate versus $74.0B prior

- 9:15 (US) Feb Industrial Production: -1.35 expected versus -1.8% prior; Capacity Utilization: 71.0% expected versus 72.0% prior

- 10:00 (BE) Belgium Dec Trade Balance: No estimate versus -€1.45B prior

- 13:00 (US) Mar NABH Housing market index: 9 expected versus 9 prior


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