- Traders seem to have put aside Feb CPI data while Congress continues working
itself into a frenzy over AIG bonuses. Investors are selling off equities and
commodities and purchasing some USTs to position themselves ahead of this
afternoon's FOMC statement. Indices are seeing some profit taking despite
continued aggressive buying in some of the most beaten down Banks. Front-month
crude has slide some 4% following weekly DOE inventory builds across all
products. April natural gas has made another 6-year low trading below $3.70
while Gold has made a fresh 1-month low briefly trading below $885.
- The Wall Street bonus soap opera has shifted into overdrive as AIG's CEO
testifies before the Senate and legislators launch various proposals to heavily
tax bonuses (recall that AIG said over the weekend that it would still be
doling out $165M in bonuses that the firm was contractually bound to pay).
After suggesting that AIG executives should apologize to the nation or commit
suicide, Senator Charles Grassley (R) and colleague Senator Max Baucus (D)
introduced sweeping legislation yesterday that would impose a 70% tax hike on
"excessive executive compensation" - comprising a 35% excise tax on
bonuses of workers who are employed by firms who received government funds and
a 35% tax on the firm that paid the bonus, applying to all bonuses over $50K.
The Congressional leadership has promised to fast-track some kind of
legislation to tax the AIG bonuses out of existence, if not all bonuses from
Wall Street firms. Note that yesterday afternoon a House committee chairman
asked Bank of America to turn over info related to Merrill's $3.6B in bonuses.
Note that shares of AIG are up more than 25% today.
- Back in the real world, the Treasury said it would work with AIG to wind down
the company in an orderly way. The Fed's financial vehicle, Maiden Lane III,
and AIG said yesterday that they would pay $62B to settle derivative
transactions with 16 investment banks. BoA CEO Ken Lewis said his bank could
pay back its $45B in TARP funds in 2009 or at the start of 2010, accelerating
the expected payback from the three or so years Lewis had talked about
recently. With quarterly reports expected soon from Goldman Sachs and Morgan
Stanley, the analyst community is positioning their calls on the banks. Sandler
O'Neill cut Morgan to a Sell from Hold this morning, while JP Morgan assumed
Goldman at Overweight with a $120 price target. Shares of C+10% and BAC+6% are
up substantially after pausing for a day or so, while the other major
financials are in the red.
- In other equity news, China's
Ministry of Commerce rejected Coca-Cola's bid for Huiyuan Juice, noting that
the deal will â€śhurt competition.â€ť Commentators are discussing the protectionist
implications of the move. The Wall Street Journal reported that IBM is holding
negotiations to buy Sun Microsystems for around $6.5B. That sum would translate
into a premium of more than 100% over Sun's closing price on Tuesday of
$4.97/shr. No confirmations of the story have been forthcoming. Shares of
JAVA+65% are doing well in early trading, while IBM is down 4% or so. MGM is
down more than 10% after missing earnings and revenue targets. MGM's CEO was
downbeat on the conference call, noting the firm has hired outside advisors and
is mulling "all options.â€ť Adobe is up 8% after meeting estimates and
guiding in line, noting that business has stabilized and that a modicum of
normality may return over the next two quarters.
- In currencies, the greenback saw most of its initial strength from the
European morning erode ahead of the FOMC interest rate decision, which comes
later this afternoon. EUR/USD easily plowed through reported Far
East offers rumored at the 1.3070 area to test 1.3145 for fresh
seven-week highs in the pair in the wake of the US CPI data. Some chatter
circulated that the overall euro strength might be fix related. Dealers were
trying to test the SNB's resolve in the CHF-related pairs. EUR/CHF briefly tested
below the 1.5290 level before rebounding above the 1.5330. Swiss names have
denied any intervention during the session thus far and dealers are noting the
price action appears to be stop-related in EUR/USD thanks to a short squeeze in
the cross. USD/CHF remains heavy as the pair tested below 1.1660. Sterling
has recovered from its worst levels for the session against its major pairs
after the terrible jobs data. The BoE's Blanchflower expressed concern that the
was getting worse. GBP/USD was nearing the 1.40 area after testing the 1.3850
after the data.
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
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The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
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Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
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