- Traders seem to have put aside Feb CPI data while Congress continues working
itself into a frenzy over AIG bonuses. Investors are selling off equities and
commodities and purchasing some USTs to position themselves ahead of this
afternoon's FOMC statement. Indices are seeing some profit taking despite
continued aggressive buying in some of the most beaten down Banks. Front-month
crude has slide some 4% following weekly DOE inventory builds across all
products. April natural gas has made another 6-year low trading below $3.70
while Gold has made a fresh 1-month low briefly trading below $885.
- The Wall Street bonus soap opera has shifted into overdrive as AIG's CEO
testifies before the Senate and legislators launch various proposals to heavily
tax bonuses (recall that AIG said over the weekend that it would still be
doling out $165M in bonuses that the firm was contractually bound to pay).
After suggesting that AIG executives should apologize to the nation or commit
suicide, Senator Charles Grassley (R) and colleague Senator Max Baucus (D)
introduced sweeping legislation yesterday that would impose a 70% tax hike on
"excessive executive compensation" - comprising a 35% excise tax on
bonuses of workers who are employed by firms who received government funds and
a 35% tax on the firm that paid the bonus, applying to all bonuses over $50K.
The Congressional leadership has promised to fast-track some kind of
legislation to tax the AIG bonuses out of existence, if not all bonuses from
Wall Street firms. Note that yesterday afternoon a House committee chairman
asked Bank of America to turn over info related to Merrill's $3.6B in bonuses.
Note that shares of AIG are up more than 25% today.
- Back in the real world, the Treasury said it would work with AIG to wind down
the company in an orderly way. The Fed's financial vehicle, Maiden Lane III,
and AIG said yesterday that they would pay $62B to settle derivative
transactions with 16 investment banks. BoA CEO Ken Lewis said his bank could
pay back its $45B in TARP funds in 2009 or at the start of 2010, accelerating
the expected payback from the three or so years Lewis had talked about
recently. With quarterly reports expected soon from Goldman Sachs and Morgan
Stanley, the analyst community is positioning their calls on the banks. Sandler
O'Neill cut Morgan to a Sell from Hold this morning, while JP Morgan assumed
Goldman at Overweight with a $120 price target. Shares of C+10% and BAC+6% are
up substantially after pausing for a day or so, while the other major
financials are in the red.
- In other equity news, China's
Ministry of Commerce rejected Coca-Cola's bid for Huiyuan Juice, noting that
the deal will â€śhurt competition.â€ť Commentators are discussing the protectionist
implications of the move. The Wall Street Journal reported that IBM is holding
negotiations to buy Sun Microsystems for around $6.5B. That sum would translate
into a premium of more than 100% over Sun's closing price on Tuesday of
$4.97/shr. No confirmations of the story have been forthcoming. Shares of
JAVA+65% are doing well in early trading, while IBM is down 4% or so. MGM is
down more than 10% after missing earnings and revenue targets. MGM's CEO was
downbeat on the conference call, noting the firm has hired outside advisors and
is mulling "all options.â€ť Adobe is up 8% after meeting estimates and
guiding in line, noting that business has stabilized and that a modicum of
normality may return over the next two quarters.
- In currencies, the greenback saw most of its initial strength from the
European morning erode ahead of the FOMC interest rate decision, which comes
later this afternoon. EUR/USD easily plowed through reported Far
East offers rumored at the 1.3070 area to test 1.3145 for fresh
seven-week highs in the pair in the wake of the US CPI data. Some chatter
circulated that the overall euro strength might be fix related. Dealers were
trying to test the SNB's resolve in the CHF-related pairs. EUR/CHF briefly tested
below the 1.5290 level before rebounding above the 1.5330. Swiss names have
denied any intervention during the session thus far and dealers are noting the
price action appears to be stop-related in EUR/USD thanks to a short squeeze in
the cross. USD/CHF remains heavy as the pair tested below 1.1660. Sterling
has recovered from its worst levels for the session against its major pairs
after the terrible jobs data. The BoE's Blanchflower expressed concern that the
was getting worse. GBP/USD was nearing the 1.40 area after testing the 1.3850
after the data.
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Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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