It was not the language of diplomacy
and disguised meaning. Chinese President Wen Jiabaoâ€™s admonition to the
American Government: â€śI want to ask the United States to protect its credit
rating, honor its words and ensure the safety of Chinaâ€™s assetsâ€ť, was not a
request it was a lecture and it was a warning.
Chinaâ€™s influence over US economic and political policy is on the rise. This
was a public notice from the highest reaches of the Beijing administration.
Chinese economic interests do not necessarily coincide with Washingtonâ€™s.
Chinese investment in US debt should not be taken for granted. The Obama administration
has an attentive creditor and economic policies inimical to Chinaâ€™s interests
will have consequences. China has investment alternatives; the US does not.
China has always reacted forcefully to criticism of what it regards as internal
policy matters even when that policy has large external ramifications. Treasury
Secretary Geithnerâ€™s passing comment during his confirmation hearing accusing
the Chinese of manipulating their currency for trade advantage garnered a swift
and blunt reaction from Beijing. "These comments are not only out of
keeping with the facts, even more so they are misleading in analyzing the
causes of the financial crisis," said Vice Governor Su Ning of the
People's Bank of China.
The Chinese are genuinely worried about the value of their American
investments. The US economic policy to spend its way out of recession is
worrisome twice over. First there is no assurance and debatable historical
evidence that it will be effective. Second the amount of US debt that will be
issued to the world's credit markets over the next few years is unprecedented.
The potential for inflation and Dollar devaluation cannot be underestimated.
The Chinese are simply saying what is obvious. Confidence in the economic
policies of the US government is essential. Every financial crisis teaches the
same lesson, without confidence there is no financial system; it is no
different for the debts of governments.
A run on the Dollar would be devastating to the value of Chinaâ€™s US holdings.
But that was equally true last summer when the Dollar was plumbing historic
lows against the Euro. The Beijing government had little to say then but their
position has since improved. The desire of the US administration to use the
economic crisis to advance its domestic agenda is a political risk. Washington
will have to listen to Chinese concerns. For China political power has grown
not from the barrel of a gun but from its trade surplus.
The extent of newfound Chinese influence was not stated by the Chinese
president but the implications are clear. China is in a far better economic
position than the United States. She can afford to stimulate and support her
own domestic spending without borrowing from the rest of the world; the US
An increase in domestic consumption was one of the goals of the current Chinese
five year economic plan, and one that had not been met. Domestic consumption
has fallen in percentage terms in this five year plan from the prior plan
period. Beijingâ€™s new infrastructure and domestic spending will draw in
resources, goods and capital from around the world. Because of its size China
has the potential over time to create the same type of sustaining domestic
consumer economy that had been typical of the United States until recently.
Japanâ€™s export driven economy is facing its worst recession since the Second
World War. The United States can offer little help. The US cannot offer an
alternative market; its own consumption is falling rapidly. China can. The
China market beckons the Australian and New Zealand resource export economies,
the middle level assembly industries of Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia
and Thailand and the developed industries of the West. The more these countries
look to China for their economic growth the more Chinese influence will expand
in Asia and globally.
Chinaâ€™s new economic assertiveness is the other side of its financial strength.
If the profligate governments of the West have to look to China for funding
they will have to listen to Chinese concerns. The Beijing rulers understand all
too well the dictum of President Obamaâ€™s Chief of Staff Rahm Emmanuel and they
have no intention of letting this crisis go to waste.
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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