The USD sell-off, inspired by Wednesday's US Fed's treasuries
purchase plan, ran out of steam in NY, risky currencies all slightly off their
European-session highs. US
equities were even less convinced, and fell for the second consecutive day
since the Fed announcement. The S&P500 closed 2% lower, banks falling
almost 7% as the AIG-bailout furore is expected by the market to pressure
politicians to allow future bank failures to run their course. Further gauges
of risk aversion mounting in the short term were VIX higher to 46, 10 year US
treasuries weakening by 3bp to 2.63%, and gold down 0.8% to $952. Commodities
were generally unchanged. The Swedish finance minister said on CNBC he wouldn't
rule out quantitative easing, and while the ECB's Weber didn't go quite that
far, he did say longer-term loans to flatten the yield curve were possible.
NZD closed a touch higher than the domestic session's 0.5575, but
looked tired after hitting a 2-month high of 0.5625. Friday's immigration and
credit card data were overshadowed by the residual effect of Wednesday's FOMC
The AUD closed NY at the same level as the domestic session close,
0.6870. It did reach 0.6930 during Europe, but followed
the EUR's weaker tone back down. AUD/NZD continued to confound the punters by
attacking 1.23, an old support level, but failing to sustain a 1.2270 low.
EUR couldn't surpass the previous day's 1.3740, with 1.3725 being its
best effort before sliding back to finish the week at 1.3580. USD/JPY
gained over a yen to close at 96.
German producer prices fell 0.5% in February, leaving them up 0.9% on
a year ago. The annual rate of growth is likely to briefly turn negative
through the middle of the year, highlighting the growing degree of slack in the
Eurozone industrial production fell by 3.5% in January, as signalled
by the ugly country-level data published earlier (Germany
in particular, down 7.5%). Production is down 17.3% on a year ago, the sharpest
rate of decline since records began in 1986.
retail sales rose by 1.9% in January, following three consecutive declines
that culminated with December's near-record 5.2% drop. Vehicle sales picked up
as expected, but ex-auto sales were also stronger than market forecasts, with
strength in apparel and personal care.
Some NZD bullish sentiment is creeping into the market,
which will make for choppy price action over the next few weeks. We hold on to
our multi-month expectation that the NZD will fall below 0.49, but the
multi-week outlook is unclear. Shorter term, having reached our 0.56 target on
Friday night, and noting the toppish price action, we feel the next few days
will see NZD lower, to at least 0.5450.
Q4 GDP Preview (18 March)
Weekly Forex Outlook (16 March)
RBNZ March MPS Review (12 March)
Q4 Terms of Trade (11 March)
Agribiz March 2009 (9 March)
Weekly Forex Outlook (9 March)
RBNZ March MPS Preview (6 March)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
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Tue 31 July 2018 AA JP- Bank of Japan A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence Wed 1 Aug 2018 A Final Mfg PMIs AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls A 15:00 US- EIA Crude AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision Thu 2 Aug 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 3 Aug 2018 A Final Services PMIs AA 12:30 US- Employment A 12:30 US/CA- Trade
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