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Sunday March 22, 2009 - 23:03:34 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz

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Forex Research - Morning Report

Morning Report Monday 23 March 2009

 

News and views

The USD sell-off, inspired by Wednesday's US Fed's treasuries purchase plan, ran out of steam in NY, risky currencies all slightly off their European-session highs. US equities were even less convinced, and fell for the second consecutive day since the Fed announcement. The S&P500 closed 2% lower, banks falling almost 7% as the AIG-bailout furore is expected by the market to pressure politicians to allow future bank failures to run their course. Further gauges of risk aversion mounting in the short term were VIX higher to 46, 10 year US treasuries weakening by 3bp to 2.63%, and gold down 0.8% to $952. Commodities were generally unchanged. The Swedish finance minister said on CNBC he wouldn't rule out quantitative easing, and while the ECB's Weber didn't go quite that far, he did say longer-term loans to flatten the yield curve were possible.

NZD closed a touch higher than the domestic session's 0.5575, but looked tired after hitting a 2-month high of 0.5625. Friday's immigration and credit card data were overshadowed by the residual effect of Wednesday's FOMC decision.

The AUD closed NY at the same level as the domestic session close, 0.6870. It did reach 0.6930 during Europe, but followed the EUR's weaker tone back down. AUD/NZD continued to confound the punters by attacking 1.23, an old support level, but failing to sustain a 1.2270 low.

EUR couldn't surpass the previous day's 1.3740, with 1.3725 being its best effort before sliding back to finish the week at 1.3580. USD/JPY gained over a yen to close at 96.

No US data.

German producer prices fell 0.5% in February, leaving them up 0.9% on a year ago. The annual rate of growth is likely to briefly turn negative through the middle of the year, highlighting the growing degree of slack in the European economy.

Eurozone industrial production fell by 3.5% in January, as signalled by the ugly country-level data published earlier (Germany in particular, down 7.5%). Production is down 17.3% on a year ago, the sharpest rate of decline since records began in 1986.

Canada retail sales rose by 1.9% in January, following three consecutive declines that culminated with December's near-record 5.2% drop. Vehicle sales picked up as expected, but ex-auto sales were also stronger than market forecasts, with strength in apparel and personal care.

Outlook

Some NZD bullish sentiment is creeping into the market, which will make for choppy price action over the next few weeks. We hold on to our multi-month expectation that the NZD will fall below 0.49, but the multi-week outlook is unclear. Shorter term, having reached our 0.56 target on Friday night, and noting the toppish price action, we feel the next few days will see NZD lower, to at least 0.5450.

 

Latest Research Papers/Publications

• NZ Q4 GDP Preview (18 March)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (16 March)

• RBNZ March MPS Review (12 March)

• NZ Q4 Terms of Trade (11 March)

• NZ Agribiz March 2009 (9 March)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (9 March)

• RBNZ March MPS Preview (6 March)

These papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac

Institutional Bank’s website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)

 

Upcoming Events

Date Country Release Last Forecast

23 Mar Aus Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan speaks in Sydney

US Feb Existing Home Sales %mth –5.3% –2.0%

Jpn BoJ Policy Meeting Minutes

Q1 BSE Large Mfg %qtr –44.5% –

Eur Jan Trade Balance €bn –0.7 –9.0

Can Feb Leading Indicators –0.8% –0.9%

24 Mar Aus RBA Asst Governor Lowe speaks in Sydney

US Jan House Price Index 0.1% –0.9%

Mar Richmond Fed Factory Index –51 –54

Fedspeak: Evans

 

 

 

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.




 

 

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