- Equities: Swiss Life [SLHN.SZ] Reported FY08 Adj Net loss CHF1.14B roughly in
line with the loss CHF1.11B expected. It announced that it had established a
strategic partnership with Germany's
Talanx. Talanx to purchasing a long-term participation of up to 9.9% in Swiss
Life. Talanx will also acquire a stake of 8.4% in MLP from Swiss Life. Swiss
Life intends to reduce its remaining stake in MLP of 15.9% to below 10% and is
currently holding discussions with potential buyers and MLP. The partnership
deal effectively ends Swiss Life''s attempt to buy German financial advisor
MLP. || BG Group [BG.UK], Arrow Energy has accepted the co. offer for Pure
Energy. This decision takes BG ownership over the 90% which mean it would pay
A$8.25/shr. ||Severn Trent [SVT.UK]
provided an interim statement: Trading in line with prior expectations. Severn
has seen no material changes to business performance from Jan 27. Expects to
see a decline in consumption across measured income base, estimated to impact
year-on-year revenues in 2008/09 by around Â£20-25M. Firm guided 2008/2009 CAPEX
at Â£650-670M and stated that its cost savings plans for 2008-2010 remain on
track. ||Metro AG [MEO.GE], the supermarket retailer reported its Q4 Net profit
at â‚¬691M, below the â‚¬786.7M expected, EBIT â‚¬1.37B v â‚¬1.32Be, and Rev at â‚¬20.1B
v â‚¬20.11Be. Metro expected positive impact on earnings from restructuring
program from 2010, to become fully effective from 2012. Metro expects weaker
sales growth impacting FY09 earnings and stated that it is impossible to
provide a precise profit-loss forecast for this year due to high level of
uncertainty. Firm expects EBIT (ex items) to rise more than 8% in the medium
term and FY09 Rev growth rate to fall substantially short of medium term target
of more than 6%. Metro proposed an unchanged div for FY08 of â‚¬1.18/shr while
planning rapid expansion in China.
|| Deutsche Bank [DBK.GE] CEO in its final FY08 report stated that he saw no
requirement for raising capital from external source at the moment; should
return to profit in FY09. The bank states that funding and liquidity at the
bank remain strong, that it sees some degree of recovery in 2010 is foreseeable
and reiterated that the bank had good start this year. Deutsche Bank noted that
the bank is well positioned to weather the bad economy in 2009 and that
difficult conditions in the banking sector are expected to persist for some
time. It was stated that further cost-saving measures may be needed. || Arcelor
Mittal [MT.NV], the steel maker is launching at â‚¬750B due 2014 convertible debt
offering and confirmed its Q1 EBITDA Guidance at â‚¬1.0B with -15% to +15% range.
Arcelor Mittal stated that it may increase the bond offering by â‚¬120M. ||
Reiter holdings [RIEN.SZ] reported its FY08 Net loss at CHF396.7M v a loss of
CHF267.9Me, and Rev at CHF3.14B v CHF3.11B expected. Reiter proposed options in
lieu of a final FY08 dividend. Firm is also to prematurely terminate buyback
program while expecting FY09 to be challenging; sees operating losses in
automotive, textile units. || Credit Suisse [CSGN.SZ] CEO commented that the co
had a strong start in 2009, will continue to invest in private bank growth. The
Swiss bank is seeking conditional approval to sell up to 100M new shares, or
CHF4M in capital. Additionally, the group will seek to cut cost base by approx
CHF2B. || Telenor [TEL.NO] stated that it had no intention of paying $1.7B fine
to Russian court. Reminder: Back on Feb 20, 2009 - Siberian court ruled against
co. relating to Vimpelcom investment, saying it is liable for $1.76B in
damages; firm will appeal decision, will continue to defend investments in
Vimpelcom. || Volvo Trucks [VOLVB.SW] reported its Feb Truck Deliveries at
10.9K v 10.2K m/m. the Swedish truck maker put European Truck Deliveries at
4.8K v 5.0K m/m, North American Truck Deliveries 1.7K v 1.2K m/m and Asia Truck
Deliveries 2.8K v 2.6K m/m. ||
- Speakers: ECB's Liikanen: No prospect of a rapid global recovery; ECB has
room to maneuver on all key policy rates. -He noted that the global economy was
in 'deep' recession and might only recover in first half of 2010. He reiterated
that ECB has not used up leeway on interest rates and that the central bank
might broaden its 'arsenal' of non-standard measures. It would keep 'all
options open' on measures. The US
and Europe might face weaker growth after crisis || BOE
letter to Exchequer on CPI: Sharp inflation drop likely to resume; CPI to go
below target over next year. BOE noted that inflation has been more volatile
over the past two years and that the drop in inflation might reflect GBP depreciation
but that the GBP fall has dampened the commodity price decline UK GDP
contraction had created substantial spare capacity and that global activity
would constrain UK
demand prospects. The MPC would want to consider CPI risks at next policy
meeting and would monitor effectiveness of APF. || BOE King commented that it
might not have to reverse injection of broad money but an Exit strategy would
be to raise interest rates || Chancellor Darling commented that the UK
Government would continue to support decisions of BOE MPC . Darling noted that
he would update govt economic forecasts in the Apr 22nd Budget.
||BOJ Shirakawa reiterated that conditions in corporate finance remained severe
and added that it was important for banks to strengthen capital base ||Czech
Central Banker Gov Tuma noted that the challenges faced are greater than a year
ago | BoE Dale noted that there were signs that the economy would turn at the
end of the year || Indian Panel Deputy Chief stated that he saw 2009 GDP
growing by about 6.5% and saw room for additional fiscal stimulus. Forecasted a
softening of prices, but not deflation. || India Ruling party: Will take steps
to revive economic growth with fiscal prudence and low inflation || IATA: 2009
airline industry revenues to decline by 11.7% to $467B, losses to hit $4.7B v
Dec forecast of $2.5B || Bahrain Central Bank Gov Al-Maraj commented that the
GCC monetary union was essential for GCC's future and that the region's low
debt allows them to withstand financial crisis || Former IMF chied Koehler
commented that a new Bretton Woods style accord is needed and would need to
double the IMF funding at minimum. EU members should 'bundle' interests
together in IMF/World Bank. He noted that Germany faces a huge challenge in
tackling crisis in Eastern Europe, EU needs to be ready to help eastern
neighbors || Fed's Evans stated that US govt interventions are helping markets
at both home and abroad. The flight to liquidity by investors was hurting other
markets. Policy initiatives will help stimulate world economic recovery; policy
designed to address cycle of instability in financial markets, economic
weakness and that arbitrage opportunities were going unexplored. Weak growth
and low inflation outlook calling for additional accommodation from Fed and
that the FOMC would return to focus on funds rate as US
- In Currencies: Return of the carry as the JPY price activity tracked movement
in equity markets, which experienced decent gains on the back of the U.S.
toxic asset plan.. Dealers noted that the outlook for JPY remained bearish,
with Japanese fundamentals soft and improved risk appetite encourage Japanese
investor demand for overseas assets. Technical were also favoring a weaker JPY.
CitiFX targeting 139 level in EUR/JPY after its break above the 132 area. ||
EUR/USD tested 1.3678 before retreating below 1.36 handle as Eastern European
flows were cited. || Fin Min Yosano Important to use FX reserves for FX market
stability; Sees no need to loan FX reserves to other financial institutions;.
The GBP surged to session highs against the major after the higher than
expected inflation data. GBP/USD tested 1.4780 before contracting. GBP/JPY
probed the 145 area and EUR/GBP moved towards the 0.9200 level.
- In Energy: UAE OPEC Min: Crude prices would be much lower if not for OPEC ||
Abu Dhabi: To cut supplies of Upper Zakum crude oil by further 10% in May
following 17% cut in April
*** NOTES ***
- Dealers noting that despite the recent euphoria over the US toxic asset plan
some storm clouds do remain on the horizon. European bourses saw opening level
gains erode into losses.. The European morning was a 'bit surprised' by the
Deutsche bank annual report, which contained higher than expected amount of
non-investment grade, and central European debt the bank is carrying
- A slew of European services and manufacturing PMIs came out in the session
and although steady and slightly improving from prior readings they do remain
firmly below the 50 point no change mark, which suggests ongoing contraction.
- GBP helps deflation risks as UK
inflation data 'shocks' market with higher readings. BOE is assured that CPI
will move back in-line with targets
- Looking Ahead:
- 10:00 (US) Jan House Price Index M/M: -0.9% expected v 0.1% prior
- 10:00 (US) March Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: -51 expected v -51 prior
- 10 :00 (US) Bernanke, Geithner appear before House Panel
- (SA) South African Interest Rate Decision: 100bps cut to 9.50% expected;
current Benchmark Rate is 10.50%
- 7:40 (IR) Ireland to sell up to â‚¬1B 4.00% 2011 and 4.50% 2020 Bonds
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $40B in 2y Notes
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
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