- Equities: Rio tinto [RIO.UK], Australia's Competition Regulator (ACCC) will
not oppose company's stake sale to Chinalco. The ACCC notes transaction will
not substantially lower competition. Share traded higher in Sydney
and broadly lower in London. || UK
grocer Sainsbury [SBRY.UK] provided an Interim statement: Reports Q4 LFL sales
ex fuel +6.2% y/y v +5.5% y/y. Sainsbury stated it was seeing some significant
changes in the mix of products customers are choosing to buy. Our 'Switch and
Save' campaign in January focused on our entry price point range 'basics',
sales of which are up over 60% y/y. The grocer saw non-food sales continuing to
grow strongly. Chairman: We expect the current economic environment to remain
challenging. || Insurer Legal and General [LGEN.UK] reported its FY08 IGD
surplus at Â£1.9B, and its IFRS Op Loss at Â£189M v Â£658M y/y. For the insurer,
FY08 EEV operating Profit was Â£870M v Â£848M y/y, IGD Core Tier 1 Ratio was 3.9%
v 7.6% y/y and the final 2008 Dividend was proposed at 4.06p /shr, down from
the 5.97p/shr y/y. ||Smiths Group [SMIN.UK] reported its H1 Pretax profit at
Â£135.2M v Â£209.2Me, and Rev at Â£1.29B v Â£1.25Be. The firms CEO stated that
orders for European delivery in H1 had been weak and continued to see a
difficult H2. Smiths noted that it was on track for FY results in line with
forecasts. ||HSBC [HSBA.UK] confirmed UK
job cuts of 1,200 positions (less than 1% of global workforce). ||Tui AG
[TUI1.GE] reported its FY08 at a Net loss o fâ‚¬121.3M v loss â‚¬11.4Me, and Rev at
â‚¬18.7B v â‚¬19.9Be. Tui stated that it could not provide 2009 guidance due to
economic uncertainty and expected container Sappington unit sales to decline in
2009 and tourist operations to remain stable. Firms expects to see stable
earnings in its Hapag units and expects annual synergies of Â£200M with numerous
business partners. Tui UK [TT.UK] also reported its Q1 Rev at Â£2.75B v Â£2.52B
y/y. ||Porsche PAH3.GE: Confirmed that automaker has secured â‚¬10B credit line
||Hochtief [hOT.GE] reported its FY08 Net at â‚¬175.1M v â‚¬155.2Me, and Rev at
â‚¬19.1B v â‚¬18.0Be. The German commercial and home builder declared a final
dividend of â‚¬1.40 v â‚¬1.30/shr y/y. Hochtief puts its Q4 backlog at â‚¬30.9B v
â‚¬32.7B q/q and noted that it expects 2009 orders and revenue to decline y/y.
The firm guided its FY09 Net and pretax inline with 2008, but remains cautions
on the outlook guiding FY09 CAPEX â‚¬780M. Hochtief expects markets to stabilize
in 2010. ||Banco Populare [BP.IT] reported its Q4 at a Net loss of â‚¬855.1M v
profit â‚¬63Me, Net interest income at â‚¬604.2M, and Net Commissions â‚¬239.4M. The
Italian bank put its FY08 Net loss at â‚¬333M v profit â‚¬321.5Me (unclear if comp)
and guided its Core Tier 1 Ratio of 8% (pro forma). The bank noted it had Q4
Impairment charges of â‚¬1.36B and expects that the bank could reflect further
writedowns on the back of Lehman and Iceland
assets. Populare confirmed that the bank will not pay final FY08 dividend (as
expected). || Gazprom [GAZP.RU] is reportedly in talks with state banks to
raise funding for 20% buyback of GazpromNeft and Russian gas options. The
Russian gas giant is seeking to buy stakes back from Italian firm ENI in early
April, 2009. ENI holds a 20% stake in Gazprom neft (948M shares). ||Industrai
de Diseno [ITX.SP], the parent company of Zara Reported its FY08 Net profit at
â‚¬1.25B v â‚¬1.23Be and Rev at â‚¬10.41B v â‚¬9.54Be. The retailer proposed a final
dividend of â‚¬1.05/shr which was flat y/y. Firm noted that it expected to see
another challenging year for the sector but expects to continue outperforming
it this year and that it will take advantage of opportunities presented by
current environment. The firm guided FY09 CAPEX at â‚¬600M and plans to save â‚¬75M
in costs this year. The retailer put its FY08 Gross Margin at 56.8% and
reported its H2 LFL -0.7% v +1.0% in H1. The brand plans to open between
370-450 stores this year; 95% of new store openings will be outside Spain.
- Speakers: ECB's Gonzalez-Paramo observed that 2009 would be defined by a
severe adjustment while 2010 was the year of 'gradual' economic recovery. Can
expect results from upcoming G20 meeting in UK;
but must be realistic about the G20 overall as G20 was a forum for commitments,
not an executive committee. || EU's Juncker stated that EU was not planning to
increase stimulus plans on demand of US. He added a bit of pessimism to the
global outlook when he noted that a 'timid recovery' near end of 2010 . He
stressed the need for general financial oversight regulations following G-20
summit || PBoC Adviser Fan Gang: China suffered 'quite badly' from USD standard
system || BoJ Governor Shirakawa commented that the BoJ was not considering
direct purchases of JGB's nor considering buying new JGB issues || IFO
commented that companies were not expecting any sharp improvement in conditions
and that the bottom of the economy cycle has yet to be reached. The IFO noted
that retailers have grown more pessimistic || IFO's Nerb: Expects ECB to cut
rates by 50bps but they really should cut by 100bps to 0.50% level. Nerb noted
that the expectation portion of the data series signal turning point ahead with
stimulus showing impact by Q3 || Italian Industry Minister reportedly stated
that the EU planned a â‚¬1.5B fund to guarantee up to â‚¬80B in and that Italy
to increase fund to guarantee loans for small businesses ||
- In Currencies: The GBP was mildly softer in the session. BOE's King comment
yesterday that the UK
could not afford any more stimulus plans took the wind from the recent bullish
sentiment.. GBP sentiment also weighed down by a corporate report that the
volume of UK
mortgage debt was currently running at an "unmanageable" 86% of
GDP--equating to about Â£1.2T, according to an annual world retail banking
report. The report recommends 60% as a sustainable upper level.
- Euro-related currency pairs continue to be hampered by the no confidence
voted in the Czech Republic
late yesterday. Telegraph pointed put that Article noted that the economic
crisis sweeping Central and Eastern Europe has claimed a third victim in a
month after the Czech government lost a vote of no confidence on Tuesday night
in a drama that risks setting off a fresh round of investor flight from the
region. EUR/USD probed towards the 1.3400 level where 'large' euro sell stop
orders lurked below. 1.3400 area was the first wave of Euro support following
the FED's Quantitative easing last Wednesday. The IFO data came in roughly in
line and failed to boost any bearish momentum in the Euro-related pairs.
- the JPY was former in the session as it balance the fiscal year-end flows and
chatter regarding Japanese pension funds allocating money to new managers for
foreign equity allocation. At this time the repatriation flows have the edge.
USD/JPY at 97.70 level, down about 60 pips from its Asian opening levels.
- Fixed income: Some major corporate names announced plans to tap European debt
markets this morning Diversified minerals producer BHP is planning 3 and 7y
Euro denominated bonds in a benchmark offering with pricing indicated at 260bps
over swaps and 330bps over swaps respectively. JPMorgan will reportedly pay
350bps over swaps in its 5y euro denominated issue, whilst French aerospace
manufacturer Thales will issue â‚¬600M in 4y bonds priced at just 190bps over
swaps. Government bonds have been on the defensive this morning with stronger
equities and supply on the way. Germany is set to sell up to â‚¬7B in a new 5y
2.25% BOBL, the UK is looking to sell Â£1.75B in 4.25% 2049's and $34B in new 5
Notes are on sale later in the New York afternoon
- In Energy: PBOC's Zhou: China's oil and gas shortage to persist for
foreseeable future || Statoil [STL.NO] Announces oil discovery south of Snorre
Field in North Sea. The find estimated at 4M standard cubic meters of
- Credit Crisis: IMF to provide Romania with â‚¬13B loan with EBRD to provide â‚¬1B
, further assistance expected from World Bank and EU || Russian Fin Min Kudrin
commented that no plans to restrict capital flows. Government remains cautious
about creating bad bank in Russia
but the banking crisis was not as severe as the one occurring in US. He noted
would address toxic assets on case by case basis || Fitch: Turkish corporate
sector confronts increased refinancing risk this year
*** NOTES ***
- German IFO data in line with expectations, but notes companies are not
expecting marked improvement.
- Growing optimism on the equity front as several analyst calling for
constructive equity H2
Central Bank advisor noted that Chinese economy has likely hit bottom.
Deflation the issue for China
at this time nut noted inflation would be a longer-term issue.
- But some pessimism remains. Japan
registered its trade surplus in five months but the result obtained by all the
wrong reasons. Japan
exports plunged by almost 50% in January. Both imports and exports declined by
a record amount since records started back in 1980. Exports to the US
fell by a record amount as well.
- Fed starts to buy Treasuries, BoE starts to buy GBP corp bonds today.
- US President Obama affirmed support for the dollar at a press conference at
the White House in Washington and noted that he did not believe there was the
need for a global currency
- Looking Ahead:
- 7:00 (UK) UK CBI March Distributive Trades
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e March 20th: No expectations v 21.2%
- (PD) Polish Base Rate Announcement: 25bps
cut to 3.75% expected; current Base Rate is 4.00%
- 8:30 (US) Feb Durable Goods Orders: -2.5% expected v -4.5% prior
- 8:30 (US) Durables Ex Transportation: -2.0% expected v -3.0% prior
- 9:00 (NO) Norwegian Deposit Rates: 50bps cut to 2.00% expected; current
Deposit Rate is 2.50%
- 10:00 (US) Feb New Home Sales: 300K expected v 309K prior, M/M: -2.9%
expected v -10.2% prior
- (UK) March Nationwide House Prices M/M; -1.5% expected v -18% prior; Y/Y:
-18.15 expected v -17.6% prior
- 6:10 (SW) Sweden to sek SEK3.5B 5.25% 2011 Bonds
- 6:15 (GE) Germany to sell up to â‚¬7B 2.25% 2014 Bobls
- 6:30 (UK) DMO to sell Â£1.75B 4.25% 2049 Bonds
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $34B in new 5y Notes
- 9:15 (US) Tsy Sec Geithner spears before Council of Foreign Relations
-10:00 (US) Fed's Duke testifies before Congress
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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