US equity indices have regained some upward momentum while volatility in
currency and government bond markets come to the forefront in early US
trade. An underwhelming long GILT auction in the UK
sent government bond yields higher in Europe as well as
the US ahead of
the NY open. The 10-year GILT briefly traded above 3.5%. Yields have since
moved lower following decent results from reverse auctions both here and across
the pond. The 10-year GILT yield has slipped back below 3.3% while the US
benchmark stays close to 3.7% ahead of this afternoons 5-year results. The
Greenback went for a wild wide after Treasury Sec. Geithner's comments
surrounding the idea of a world currency were botched on several fronts. Energy
markets are trading a little lower after weekly DOE inventory data.
- The major banks are solidly back in the saddle, building on gains from
earlier in the week. Bank of America's Ken Lewis told the LA Times overnight
that his bank would begin repaying its TARP funds in April, further refining
his timetable for returning government funding after pledging earlier this
month that BoA would return the money this year or next. Goldman Sachs
responded to press speculation yesterday that it would return its own TARP
funds ASAP, with Goldman's President noting that no final decision has been
made on when to return the government's money. Goldman also squelched talk that
it would sell any of its 80% stake in ICBC Bank to raise money to pay back TARP
funding, concluding a new share lock up agreement with ICBC that prevents it
from selling its stake prior to April 2010. The Japanese press reported that
Mitsubishi UFJ said it was delaying its plan to buy Citi's trust bank in Japan.
In addition, Mitsubishi UFJ denied other press reports that it would take a 60%
stake in the brokerage it plans to create with Morgan Stanley.
- In other equity news, DryShips missed earnings estimates, sending shares of
DRYS down 14% in early trading. Electronics manufacturer Jabil Circuit reported
largely in line with analysts' estimates but guided below par. Investors are
snapping up shares of JBL in the early going, sending the name up more than
30%. Commercial real estate firm CB Richard Ellis is up around 60% after
reaching a significant amendment of its credit arrangements with lenders.
Ailing movie rental giant Blockbuster is doing its best to shake up the online
rental arena, signing a JV deal with Tivo to make its films available right on
Televisions over Tivo hardware. Shares of BBI+15% and TIVO+4% are up on the
news, although rival NFLX have been largely unaffected.
- In currencies, misquoted comments from Treasury Secretary Geithner caused a
bit of a ruckus in the USD this morning. A wire service reported that Geithner
said he was â€œopen" to the idea of a SDR (Special Drawing Right) linked
currency system suggested by China,
quickly sending the dollar into a tailspin. Dealers immediately pointed out
that "damage control" would arrive shortly in the aftermath of the
remarks since the US
needs to remain the reserve currency to fund its huge deficits. EUR/USD surged
almost 200 pips to 1.3650 before a strongly-worded clarification and media
reviews of video of the actual statements from Geithner made it clear he
believes nothing of the sort. Geithner said the USD would remain the dominant
world reserve currency for "a long time" and that the US
would act to preserve the dollar as a key reserve currency, helping USD recover
to test back below the 1.35 level before ending New York
session around 1.3535. So far as the SDR goes, Geithner actually said he did
had not seen the actual Chinese proposal but thought that it likely deserves
- Sterling was in focus following
the UK's dismal
Gilt auction, where the bid-to-cover of 0.93 on the 2049 issue turned out to be
the lowest in recent memory. The UK DMO commented that the risk of an uncovered
auction was a normal part of the gilt sale process and that the 2049 issue was
riskiest part of Gilt curve. Gilts broke below support at 120.44 following the
auction results, with momentum pushing the contract below the psychologically
important 120.00 handle. The contract bounced off support at 119.51, which
corresponded to a 61.8 Fib retracement of the 115.77-125.58 range. The spread
between the UK
and German 10-year bonds widened to +32bps. Separately, BoE purchased Â£85.5M
bonds (below the Â£124M target) in its corporate bond auction.
- In other currency news, the Norwegian Central bank cuts its deposit rate by
50bps to 2.00%, as expected. It saw a gradual reduction in rates and noted that
it had seen a substantial decline in Norwegian exports. The NOK traded broadly
lower against the USD and Euro following the rate decision. The Polish Central
bank cut its base rate by 25bps to 3.75%, as expected.
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Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Max McKegg’s Daily Forex Trading Forecasts
FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the
Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders
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The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
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