Kingfisher [KGF.UK] reported its FY08 Adj profit at Â£368M v Â£364Me, and Rev at
Â£10.03B v Â£10.0Be. The retailer is seeking to reduce overall costs by 1% y/y
and to reduce gross capital investment to be by a further Â£300M. Kingfisher
anticipates 2009 to continue to be very challenging stating that its
repositioning is underway noting that its store portfolio to be rationalized
from 63 to 41 and all remaining stores revamped. || UK
clothing retailer Next [NXT.UK] reported its FY08 Pretax at Â£428.8M v Â£498.1M
y/y, and Rev at â‚¬3.3B v â‚¬3.3Be. Next to maintain its final dividend at 55p/shr
while guiding H1 SSS down 6% to 9% y/y, Directory sales down 2% to flat, Op
Margin at -3%. Next expects like-for-like sales for full year with H1 to be
particularly difficult and FY08 Retail Sales -2.5% , like-for like sales -6.1%.
The firm put its reduced debt at Â£629m, stating that it has ample debt
facilities in excess of Â£1 billion. The firm noted that a weakening property
market is already providing us with interesting opportunities for profitable
new Retail stores. Chairman: The current economic climate in the U.K.
is unstable and this brings short term volatility in sales which, in turn,
makes forecasting difficult. ||London Stock Exchange [LSE.UK] provided an
interim statement: the exchange reported average daily value trade on SET at
Â£5.6B (-40% y/y), London Avg daily trades 730K (+2% y/y). LSE stated that
activity levels for new issues reflect the difficult market environment. LSE
reported 11 month SET trades 735K (+17% y/y) and stated that value trading has
fallen. Overall the exchange stated that trading remains inline with prior
expectations. ||For the UK
financial group Man [EMG.UK], the firm reported its FY09 Pre tax at $1.2B v
$1.18Be and its AUM at $47.7B, down from the $74.6B y/y. Man stated that FY08
redemptions stood at $4.4B v $4.7B y/y and that the group is not immune to
variations in the global economy. Man stated that Markets are expected to
remain volatile while its group outlook remains positive. The firm put its
final dividend to be declared at $0.248/share and stated that investors have
been moving towards more conservatively structured investment products.
||Songbird [SBDB.UK] reported its FY08 net loss at Â£1.7B v a profit of Â£205.8M
y/y and its FY08 NAV at 64p v Â£1.49 y/y. The real-estate trust stated that its
net assets stood at Â£459.7M -80.4% y/y and its FY08 Rental income at Â£287.5M v
Â£275M y/y. The firm is seeking to refinance Â£880M facility due to mature in
2010 and remains in talks with shareholders regarding longer term capital
structures. Songbird stated that there is a material risk that company may
break covenant tests in 1-yr time. || RBS [RBS.UK], reportedly pay restrictions
may lead to an exodus of traders - London Times . The article notes that the
two heads (David Messer and Frank Gallipoli) of the company's commodities
trading jv (RBS Sempra Commodities) left the firm ahead of an expected
compensation review. According to an industry source, a number of traders were
planning to quit because RBS is about to clamp down on pay. || Wendel
Investissments [MF.FR] reported its FY08 Recurring Net at â‚¬395M v â‚¬583Me and
put its final dividend at â‚¬1/shr v â‚¬1.80/shr estimate. Wendle stated that its
net asset value stood at â‚¬22/share and that its CEO Lafonta was to leave in May
2009. Reminder: Earlier in session, it was reported that firm's FY08 earnings
will be in line with FY07 final figures - Les Echos. || Volvo Trucks [VOLVB.SW]
and Renault [RNO.FR] reportedly, Renault is not ruling out possible sale of its
20.9% stake in the company - Les Echos. Newspaper cites Renault COO Pelata in
report. Reminder: Back on 03/24, RNO.FR: Company reportedly denies intent to
sell its Volvo stake. || German truck maker [MAN.GE], reportedly co. seeks to
overtake Daimler in Latin America. Handelsblatt reports
Man AG plans to invest â‚¬330M to expand production at a Brazil-based plant
bought from Volkswagen for â‚¬1.2B. Reminder: On Feb 19 -CFO: Have received â‚¬2B
loan to fund VW Brazilian truck unit acquisition. â‚¬1.5B to be used to purchase
VW unit, facility from 10 banks. ||Spanish carrier Iberia
[IBLA.SP], reportedly merger with British Airways could be delayed until Sept -
Spanish press. Reminder: Iberia
had previously stated that it expected to have come to a decision by end of
March, 2009. ||Swedish retailer H&M [HMB.SW] reported its Q1 Net profit at
SEK2.58B v SEK2.89Be, Op profit SEK3.36B v SEK3.84Be, and Rev SEK23.3B v
SEK23.0Be. H&M put its Q1 Gross Margin at 56.6% v 58.6%e and Feb SSS -8% v
-7%e (negative calendar effect in Feb impacted sales by 4% to 5%). The said the
launch of H&M Home was well received and that Q1 price reductions were on
same level as Q1 2008. H&M remains positive towards future expansion and in
local currencies, the sales increase was 4%. In comparable units, sales
- Speakers: ECB's Trichet noted that the Eurozone Government bond yield spreads
reflected abnormal market conditions. He Notes that it reflected particular
appreciation of sound ness of fiscal policies || ECB's Noyer commented that
food price volatility is a challenge for monetary policy. He noted that food
price volatility created a divergence between the headline and core inflation
numbers. The volatility might be linked to long term upward trend in food
prices. Deterioration in terms of trade has hurt emerging economies ||BOJ's
Shirakawa commented that Japanese banks are not having difficulty borrowing US
Dollars || Polish Central Bank Noga reiterated that Zloty currency was
undervalued || BOE's Sentence noted that the UK fiscal deficit already very
large; sees case for targeted fiscal measures
|| HKMA's Yam commented that he saw inflation as a 'potential risk' but not a
current concern || (US) Fed's Lockhart: USD to remain dominant global reserve
currency. He noted that one month of improved economic data in the US
did not constitute a recovery and noted that most US
data suggested a recession for few more months. However, the US
data 'some what encouraging:. Treasury's plan should reduce long term interest
rates. Deterioration of economy warranted bold moves || Russian Dep Central
Bank: US Treasury share of reserves over 30%. No plans to widen Ruble corridor
at this time nor not likely to review currency structure of reserves. Lastly he
noted that capital outflows likely stopped in March || PBoC Gov Zhou commented
that the China's economic stimulus actions has shown initial results and that
the leading economic indicators signal an economy recovery and that the
momentum of the slowdowan has been curbed. He reiterated the G7 pledge to
increase its domestic consumption rater than rely on exports. PBoC say it
expects to serve as a 'stabilizing force' in global economy || Taiwan Central
bank commented that currency rates are determined by market forces but would
maintain order in currencies. Central Bank believes that interest rates cannot
go any lower but to decide on future rate cuts based on conditions. Money
market and interest rates are at record lows and that the central bank noted
that the domestic financial system was relatively stable || Indian Central Bank
Gov noted that global credit markets remain frozen; credit flows to companies
have declined and that India
has a painful adjustment to make. India
economic growth would be backed by productivity and savings rate but would not
issue timeline for economic recovery || Polish Central Banker Czekaj Favors
more interest rate cuts as could see contractions in both Q2 and Q3. GDP likely
to t remain positive for 2009. Stronger Zloty would make interest rate cut
decisions easier. || Italy's Confindustria: Sees Q1 2009 GDP -3.3% v -1.0%
prior view, Deficit at 4.6% of GDP v 3.0% prior, 2009 CPI +0.8%, Debt at 112.5%
- In Currencies: Fed Lockhart commented that the USD to remain dominate global
reserve currency || UBS analyst noted that the USD to remain supported on FED
policy making || Chatter circulating that the SNB would make a 'pending
announcement. The CHF weakened ahead of the NY morning on the rumors. Overall,
little movement in the currencies following the Geithner misquote late on
Wednesday. EUR/USD maintaining a 1.3530 to 1.3630 range.
- Fixed income: Government bonds continue to trade defensively despite a mixed
performance in equities, with bear steepening of yield curves still en vogue.
Dealers have noted that after a deluge of supply and weak auction results in
three major Bond markets yesterday yields are rising towards their pre
quantitative easing levels. The 10y Gilt is currently yielding around 3.3%
versus 3.34% on March 5th. The yield on the 10y Note is back above 2.80%
compared to opening levels of 2.95% last Wednesday, having moved as low as
2.465%. And the yield on the Bund is currently around 3.17% , having moved
firmly below 3.00% last week. || - In Energy:
- Credit Crisis: Fitch cuts credit rating on Russia's MDM and Alfa Banks;
lowers outlook on other banks to Negative
- Geopolitical: Saudi Arabia noted a senior Al-Qaeda commander had surrendered.
Noted that this person had helped smuggle fighters into Iraq
*** NOTES ***
- China growing more confident that the worst may be over for its economy
- ECB hints at concerns over food price inflation and the possible instability
it could bring
- Overall focus seems to be on the upcoming G20 summit on April 2. Dealers
noting that the U.S.
seemed to be positioning itself so it would not be forced into a corner at the
meeting. In particular, the Obama administration would not like to see any
restraints on its future borrowing power. The failed Gilt auction yesterday
send a warining shot across the bow for Washington.
- Dealer chatter of large USD supply and demand out of Japan
- WSJ noted that the AIG resignations could trigger defaults on $234B in
- Dealers noting that Geithner currency debacle yesterday overshadowed some
concerns in the financial sector as traders gave little notice to Moody's
downgrade of BAC and Wells Fargo over concern they'll need more govt aid.
- Looking Ahead:
- 8:30 (US) Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: -6.6% expected v -6.2% prior; GDP Price Index:
0.5% expected v 0.5% prior
- 8:30 (US) Q4 Personal Consumption: -4.4% expected v -4.3% prior; Core PCE
Q/Q: 0.8% expected v 0.8% prior
- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims w/e Mar 21st: 650k expected v 646k prior;
Continuing Claims w/e March 14th: 5.475M expected v 5.473M prior
- (TA) Taiwan Benchmark Interest Rate Decision: 25bps cut to 1.00% expected;
current Benchmark is 1.0%
- (CZ) Czech Interest Rate Decision: No change expected, current Repo Rate is
- 6:30 (UK) DMO to sell Â£1.1B 1.875% 2022 linkers
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $24B 5y Notes
- 6:15 (EU) ECB's Papademos speaks in Brussels
- 8:00 (EU) ECB's Wellink speaks in Netherlands
- 9:25 (US) Fed's Lacker speaks in Charleston
- 10:00 (US) Treasury Sec Geithner testifies before House Fin Services Committee
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Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
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Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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