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Monday January 10, 2005 - 12:35:37 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts - Evening - 10/01/05.......1225 GMT

Euro @ 1.3095/8....Sell on further rise
------------------------------------------
R: 1.3121 / 1.3148-63 / 1.3220-41
S: 1.3071 / 1.3044-22 / 1.2996-86
The first Resistance at 1.3130-45 mentioned in the morning is yet to be seriously tested as the Euro has stalled a bit at 1.3120 itself. The next Resistance is nearer 1.3165, rather than 1.3130-45, actually. That too, is a tough Resistance.

Should the Euro turn down from here and test 1.3050 again, a fresh wave of selling might well start taking the market down towards 1.2986, the statistically projected low for the day.

Order:
Sell EUR 20K at 1.3156, SL 1.3176, TP open
Sell EUR 20K at 1.3188, SL 1.3250, TP open


$-Yen @ 104.30/34....TP on Short
--------------------------------------------
R: 104.62-74 / 105.25 / 105.67
S: 104.30-22 / 104.03-103.85 / 103.73-58
We Take Profit at current level on Short entered at 105.03


Euro-Yen @ 136.63/68....Importance of 136.50 Support
----------------------------------------------------
R: 136.89 / 137.20 / 137.69-71
S: 136.61-54 / 136.20-02 / 135.60
The Resistance at 137.15-20 mentioned in the morning has held and the Cross has indeed turned down again, but it now faces Range Support at 136.50. If this Support is suceessfully broken, then a fall to 136.00 might be inevitable. Else, we'd be looking at prospects of range trade between 136.50-137.50 for a couple of days. Elect to stay out.


$-Swiss @ 1.1806/11....Holding Long
--------------------------------------
R: 1.1798 / 1.1838 / 1.1890
S: 1.1765 / 1.1704 / 1.1664-1.1652
The pair has seen a dip since morning, but holding well above a strong support level at 1.1765.On the 4-hrly charts the 1.1765 level happens to be the lower end of a bullish channel. The dip that was see today may be attributed to profit taking and also an opportunity for the dollar bulls to enter on a dip, but we expect that the pair still has left with potential for a rise towards 1.1960 in the next few days.

Holding:
Long $25K at 1.1800, SL 1.1760, TP 1890

Order:
Long $25 at 1.1861, SL 1.1820, TP 1.1930



Cable @ 1.8754/59....Watch 1.8690 and 1.8820
--------------------------------------------
R: 1.8820-31 / 1.8855-65 / 1.8893-1.8904
S: 1.8764 / 1.8740-19 / 1.8690-87
Cable has risen to the 1.8795 (past the 1.8770 mentioned in the morning) as the 1.8690 Support held. In case it rises past 1.8820 it may see 1.8860 and maybe 1.8895. Other wise it may have to bear with the Bears for some more time to see a fall to 1.8690 and may be 1.8520. Watch 1.8820 and 1.8690 for now, therefore.




Happy Trading!

 

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