- Equities: Reportedly for Barclays [BARC.UK] The company's loan book is in
final stages of the stress test by UK regulators; test may show that firm does
not need new capital - FT. The FT notes that it has learnt that the test will
be concluded in the next few days and the FSA (UK
regulator) has indicated that Barclays does not need any fresh capital. ||BAE
Systems [BA.UK] reportedly has been awarded a ÂŁ300M contract to build 60
armored earth moving vehicles for Royal engineers. London Times reported that
the route-clearing vehicles, called Terriers, will be built at BAE's Newcastle
factory. ||Dairy Crest [DCG.UK] provided a trading statement: Sold 49% stake in
Yoplait for ÂŁ63.5M. The dairy/food company stated that the joint venture
agreement with the Yoplait group contained provisions for termination in
February 2012. ||Scottish and Southern [SSE.UK] confirmed that it expected a
modest increase in Adj Pretax affirms dividend "at least" at 66p/shr.
Note analysts are looking for a final dividend of 46.20p/share. ||Air France
[AF.FR] confirmed it expects a FY operating loss of â‚¬200M v profit â‚¬142.9Me and
that it saw FY revenue down 6% in constant currency. The carrier expects
further operating losses in FY2009/2010 and stated that it has seen continued
reductions in cargo and passenger numbers since the beginning of 2009. Air France
expects further declines in March activity Note: Current analyst estimates for
FY09 are for a Net Loss of â‚¬159M, Rev â‚¬24.4B. || Retirement home operator
Korian [KORI.FR] reported its Final FY08 Net â‚¬18M v â‚¬27.7Me, Op profit â‚¬67.7M v
â‚¬75.3Me, and EBITDA â‚¬93.5M v â‚¬92.6Me. Reminder: On Feb 10, Reports Q4 Rev
â‚¬211.0M v â‚¬185.1M y/y, FY08 Rev â‚¬781.8M v â‚¬782.3Me . || Siemens [SIE.GE] CEO
reaffirmed the groups FY09 Op Profit guidance at â‚¬8.0-8.5B v â‚¬6.4Be (initial
guidance given on Nov 27, 2008).
He commented that Q2 operating profit at its three main sectors will grow in a
double-digit-percentage range y/y and that Q2 orders are down significantly
from â‚¬23.4B in 2008. Further, Siemens expects margins in the company's energy
sector to double an operating profit y/y with the Healthcare sector showing
some weakness especially in the U.S.,
which could spill over to Europe. The conglomerate
expects Healthcare sector sales and operating profit will come in above prior
year levels in Q2 and FY09. In further guidance, Siemens sees Industry sector
performance falling short in the second quarter and in the current fiscal year
as it has strong exposure to the automotive industry and mechanical
engineering. The CEO stated that it is possible the group could see new orders
from stimulus plans in various countries in fiscal 2010 and lead to sales
growth in the medium term. ||For Daimler [DAI.GE] reportedly, Mercedes facility
in South Africa
to be shut for eight weeks. The plant to be closed for four weeks in April and
May. These comments were reported to come from spokesperson Van der Laan cited
in business report. ||Commerzbank [CBK.GE] reiterated that no dividend will be paid
in 2009 and 2010 on SOFFIN, German bank will seek to raise funds totaling â‚¬20B
this year. The bank stated that the acquisition of Dresdner to aide in banks
expansion projects and that its current business model remains viable despite
market turmoil. CBK sees loan loss provision will rising in 2009 and expects
higher operating expenses in FY09. CBK also stated that it sees margins in
banking industry to continue to come under threat. ||Jenoptik [JEN.GE] reports
its Q4 Net profit at â‚¬6.4M v â‚¬4.9M expected and rev at â‚¬150.9M v â‚¬149.0M
expected. Jenoptik also provided its FY08 Rev at â‚¬548.3M v the â‚¬521.7M reported
y/y. The firm expects Net and Rev to decline in 2009 y/y. ||Banca Monte Paschi
[BMPS.IT] reported its FY08 Net at â‚¬953M v â‚¬985M expected and confirmed the
banking group will apply for â‚¬1.9B govt aid. The Italian bank seeks to repay
the Treasury by 2013 and see its FY08 8 Tier 1 ratio at 7.1% following govt
bond purchase. Banca Monte Paschi proposed a FY08 div of â‚¬0.013/shr v â‚¬0.02e.
|| For OZ Minerals [OZL.AU], Australia's
Treasurer Swan stated that he would reject China's
Minmetals bid for OZ Minerals if it includes Prominent Hill mine and that talks
between FIRB and Minmetals continue on other assets. Swan noted the govt is
willing to consider alternative proposals and has informed
Minmetals of bid restriction. Swan cites national security grounds as Prominent
Hill copper and gold mine is in weapons testing range. Note: Both Rio Tinto and
Fortescue Metals are awaiting decisions from Australia's
FIRB (Foreign Investment Review Board) on Chinese Foreign investment. ||
- Speakers: German Fin Min Steinbruek stated that too much debt could have a
negative impact on capital markets and that Germany
has big interest in the credibility of marinating stability and growth pact.
The Euro would be threatened if stability pact was not taken seriously
- Reiterates that heavy public borrowing could cause crowding out ||China SAFE
increases overseas short-term FX debt quota for financial companies to$32.9B
(+12% from prior)|| Swedish finance minister: Economic crisis is problem for
trade oriented nations. He noted that over 20 European states could break the
3% limit under Maastricht pact
during the 2010 period.
|| Japan Senior Fin Min Official commented that he did not expect the upcoming
G-20 summit to discuss USD as key currency. He noted that G20 would rather
discuss the global economy, financial markets, financial regulation, IMF
reform, and protectionism|| BOE Dale commented that the process of quantitative
easing would not work unless banks begin to lend again. BoE's Dale saw Q1 GDP
similar to the Q4 contraction of 1.6%, Near term prospects are bleak but
substantial economc stimulus is on the way, BoE considering entering additional
corporate credit markets || Polish Central banker Filar: Should pause the rate
cuts in April and May period || Russian Central Banker Ulyukayev noted that the
2009 Russian Economy could contract by more than the 2.2% forecast. He also
noted that the central bank was not planning to officially narrow ruble band
but may intervene to limit volatility. The Ruble was likely to strengthen
against the basket. He also expected 2008 Net capital outflows less than $83B v
prior $100B to $110B range provided by the Gov't || German Q1 new car market
increased by double digit rate - VDIK || India Government borrowing needs to
put pressure on interest rates - Chandrasekh || Riksbank's Wickman-Parak
commented that the Swedish Central bank would use all tools necessary; Bank has
more than just interest rates on hand || OECD's head Gurria revised the OECD
area economic contraction to -4.2% in 2009. he commented that the USD remains
the reserve currency â€śpar excellenceâ€ť. || China's
SAFE increased its overseas short-term FX debt quota for financial companies to
$32.9B, which is 12% higher its from prior calculation. || BOE designate member
Miles: Monetary and fiscal stance set to be highly stimulative
- In Currencies: The USD gained against the European pairs after several
constructive comments from government officials. The OECD's stated that the USD
remained the reserve currency â€śpar excellenceâ€ť. A senior Japanese MOF official
stated that the USD reserve currency issue unlikely to be brought up at G20
summit ( Reportedly a Russian central banker made a similar comment). The
EUR/USD moved from the 1.3590 level to break below an hourly support line at
the 1.3480 area. It was reported earlier in the week that the 1.3400 level had
some â€ślargeâ€ť euro sell stop orders building below. That 1.34 level was a pause
point during the FED's quantitative easing last week.
- The CHF was softer throughout the European morning on chatter that the KOF
leading indicator data would be weaker than current forecasts. USD/CHF above
the 1.13 level ahead of the NY morning. EUR/CHF retested the 1.53 handle.
- Fixed income: Month end buying and short covering in thin volumes has
produced a modest rally in Bunds this morning, with the German yield curve
experiencing some corrective steepening. Gilts gapped higher and have moved
lower since whilst US treasuries have floated around the unchanged mark.
- In Energy: Venezuela
stated that OPEC could request an additional production cut at the next meeting
if necessary; Sees oil price floor at $30-40/barrel . A fresh round of OPEC
production cuts could be needed by May || Gazprom [GAZP.RU] Reported Q4 Net
loss RUB259.9B compared to a profit RUB147.2B q/q. the Loss for the quarter was
attributed to sharp decline in shares of GazpromNeft ||
- Geopolitical: Dealers taking note of a fresh warning from US officials that
Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda are reportedly planning new attacks on the US.
||Reportedly Russian ministry advises North Korea to refrain from missile
launch || Iran's Foreign Min stated it did not plans to meet US officials in
*** NOTES ***
- As noted in the currency section, the USD received some verbal support from
around the world as the reserve currency of choice.
- After China's
PBoC declared that the 'worst' was over for its recession, Its Feb Industrial
profits were down 37.3% y/y. Japan
continues to display dismal data as its Feb Retail Sales declined by 5.8% worse
than the 3.0% expected.
- Dealers taking note of a fresh warning from US
officials that Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda are reportedly planning new attacks
on the US.
- China VP
roadmap from upcoming G20 for economic coordination in times of hardship. He
noted that China
will purchase bonds issued from the IMF.
- ECB explores expansion of economic armory.
- Looking Ahead:
- 6:30 (SZ) March KOF Swiss Leading Indicator: -1.55 expected v -1.41 prior
- 8:30 (US) Feb Personal Income (last 0.4%), Feb Personal Spending (last 0.6%),
Feb PCE Deflator y/y (last 0.7%), Feb PCE Core (last m/m 0.1%, y/y 1.6%)
10:00 (US) March Final U. of Michigan Confidence (last 56.6)
- (GE) March Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.1% expected v 0.6% prior; Y/Y; 0.7%
expected v 1.0% prior; EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% expected v 0.7% prior; Y/Y:
expected v 1.0% prior
- (GE) March CPI - Baden Wuettemberg M/M: % v 0.7% prior, Y/Y: % v 1.3% prior
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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