User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Sunday March 29, 2009 - 21:01:27 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Research - Morning Report

Morning Report Monday 30 March 2009


News and views

The rally in risk assets took a breather on Friday night, the S&P500 dropping 2% in the first hour, and remaining there for the session's duration, as investors took profit and banks admitted March had been a tough month. European equities also fell 2%. Oil dropped 3.6% on equities weakness. US 10yr treasuries weakened by 2bp, possibly suffering from indigestion after a record issuance week. US 3mth Libor fell 1bp, but more interestingly, was the subject rumours the Fed may try to engineer it lower. 1mth treasury bills traded at a negative yield, -0.01%.

NZD followed suit from 0.5750 to 0.5670, bouncing back above 0.57. NZ interest rates calmed down on Friday, after a torrid week, the 5yr swap at 5.00% after the previous day's almost 50bp spike (see Friday's Rates Strategy publication for our explanation of the volatility).

AUD tumbled from the domestic session's 0.70 level, as stop-losses were triggered by model-driven selling initially, to a late-London low of 0.6866, recovering to 0.6950. AUD/NZD was confined to a 1.21 to 1.22 range, currently at 1.2150.

EUR suffered its biggest daily loss since January, 1.3590 to 1.3260, assisted by comments from German Minister Steinbrueck that the EUR is at risk if the EU stability pact is not taken seriously. GBP fell from almost 1.45 to 1.4270, BoE Miles' caution that UK debt could climb to 70% of GDP adding to the tone. USD/JPY lost ground slightly to 97.85, at one point as low as 97.10.

US March University of Michigan consumer confidence index was revised to 57.3 from the previously estimated 56.6. The index improved slightly relative to February but remained at a dire level consistent with ongoing deep recession. Economic conditions were more pessimistic while the economic outlook was slightly improved.

US core PCE deflator continued its recent rise in February, to 0.24%. Last year's low core PCE readings were partly due to falling energy prices, and oil is no longer falling. Personal disposable income returned to its negative trend after rising last month on tax cuts and benefit increases. Personal spending increased in nominal terms but fell in inflation-adjusted terms, due to higher petrol prices.  

Japan CPI update and Feb retail sales: the inflation and retail updates confirm that price pressures are easing and that spending is weakening as the recession continues. Nationally, core inflation showed that prices were unchanged on a year-ago (as expected) and that for Tokyo, core prices rose by 0.4% over the year, down from 0.6%yr (also as expected). On the retail front, sales contracted by 0.3% in Feb. That saw sales down 5.8%yr, much weaker than the -3.0%yr expected. For large retailers, sales have slumped 8.2%yr.

Germany's flash CPI estimate for March was weaker than expected at -0.2%. Annual inflation fell to 0.4%, and will soon fall below zero.

European industrial orders fell a further 3.4% in January. Revisions to previous months revealed that factory orders are now down more than a third compared to a year ago. Orders for consumer durables were down 26% yr, although the 1.1% January decline was milder than recent months. Orders for capital goods are now down 40% yr and continued to fall at a nasty 4.4% pace in January.

UK Q4 GDP was revised from -1.5% to -1.6%, in line with our expectation. But construction activity was revised down from -1.1% to -4.9%. Recent data suggest GDP has fallen just as precipitously in Q1 2009.

The UK current account deficit was GBP7.6bn seasonally adjusted, having failed to shrink as expected in Q4. There was no improvement in the goods balance, despite cheaper oil and reduced imports, because UK exports also collapsed.  


Given the weak tone from New York's close, NZD will probably soften further today, towards 0.5650. We are watching for signs of a top in this month-long NZD rally, but don't expect any until at least tonight's US equities session. Today's economic releases, building permits and M3, are typically not market movers.


Latest Research Papers/Publications

• NZ Q4 GDP Review (27 March)

• NZ Q4 Current Account Review (26 March)

• NZ Q1 Consumer Confidence (25 March)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (23 March)

• NZ Q4 Current Account Preview (20 March)

• NZ Q4 GDP Preview (18 March)

These papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac

Institutional Bank’s website (


Upcoming Events

Date Country Release Last Forecast

30 Mar NZ Feb Building Consents s.a. –13.1% 6.4%

US Mar Dallas Fed Mfg PMI –57.3% –45.0%

Jpn Feb Industrial Production %mth –10.2% –10.0%

Eur Mar Retail PMI 42.3 –

Mar Business Climate Indicator –3.51 –3.48

Mar Consumer Confidence –33 –33

Mar Economic Confidence 65.4 65.4

UK Feb Net Consumer Credit £bn 0.4 0.4

Feb Net Lending Sec. on Dwell. £bn 0.7 0.9

31 Mar NZ Mar NBNZ Business Confidence –41.2% –

Aus Feb Private Credit 0.6% 0.5%

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.



Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105