The rally in risk assets took a
breather on Friday night, the
S&P500 dropping 2% in the first hour, and remaining there for the session's
duration, as investors took profit and banks admitted March had been a tough month.
European equities also fell 2%. Oil dropped 3.6% on equities weakness. US 10yr treasuries weakened by 2bp, possibly
suffering from indigestion after a record issuance week. US 3mth Libor fell
1bp, but more interestingly, was the subject rumours the Fed may try to
engineer it lower. 1mth treasury bills traded at a negative yield, -0.01%.
NZD followed suit from 0.5750 to 0.5670, bouncing
back above 0.57. NZ interest rates calmed down on Friday, after a torrid week,
the 5yr swap at 5.00% after the previous day's almost 50bp spike (see Friday's
Rates Strategy publication for our explanation of the volatility).
AUD tumbled from the domestic session's 0.70 level,
as stop-losses were triggered by model-driven selling initially, to a
late-London low of 0.6866, recovering to 0.6950. AUD/NZD was confined to a 1.21
to 1.22 range, currently at 1.2150.
EUR suffered its biggest daily loss since January,
1.3590 to 1.3260, assisted by comments from German Minister Steinbrueck that
the EUR is at risk if the EU stability pact is not taken seriously. GBP
fell from almost 1.45 to 1.4270, BoE Miles' caution that UK debt could climb to 70% of GDP adding to the
tone. USD/JPY lost ground slightly to 97.85, at one point as low as
USMarchUniversity of Michigan consumer confidence index was revised to 57.3 from the previously estimated 56.6. The index
improved slightly relative to February but remained at a dire level consistent
with ongoing deep recession. Economic conditions were more pessimistic while
the economic outlook was slightly improved.
US core PCE deflator continued its recent rise in
February, to 0.24%. Last year's
low core PCE readings were partly due to falling energy prices, and oil is no
longer falling. Personal disposable income returned to its negative trend after
rising last month on tax cuts and benefit increases. Personal spending
increased in nominal terms but fell in inflation-adjusted terms, due to higher
Japan CPI update and Feb retail sales: the inflation and retail updates confirm that
price pressures are easing and that spending is weakening as the recession
continues. Nationally, core inflation showed that prices were unchanged on a
year-ago (as expected) and that for Tokyo, core prices rose by 0.4% over the year, down
from 0.6%yr (also as expected). On the retail front, sales contracted by 0.3%
in Feb. That saw sales down 5.8%yr, much weaker than the -3.0%yr expected. For
large retailers, sales have slumped 8.2%yr.
Germany's flash CPI estimate for March was weaker than
expected at -0.2%. Annual
inflation fell to 0.4%, and will soon fall below zero.
European industrial orders fell a
further 3.4% in January.
Revisions to previous months revealed that factory orders are now down more
than a third compared to a year ago. Orders for consumer durables were down 26%
yr, although the 1.1% January decline was milder than recent months. Orders for
capital goods are now down 40% yr and continued to fall at a nasty 4.4% pace in
UK Q4 GDP was revised from -1.5% to -1.6%, in line with our expectation. But construction
activity was revised down from -1.1% to -4.9%. Recent data suggest GDP has
fallen just as precipitously in Q1 2009.
The UK current account deficit was GBP7.6bn seasonally
adjusted, having failed to
shrink as expected in Q4. There was no improvement in the goods balance,
despite cheaper oil and reduced imports, because UK exports also collapsed.
Given the weak tone from New York's close, NZD will probably soften further
today, towards 0.5650. We are watching for signs of a top in this month-long
NZD rally, but don't expect any until at least tonight's US equities session. Today's economic releases,
building permits and M3, are typically not market movers.
β’ NZ Q4 GDP
Review (27 March)
β’ NZ Q4
Current Account Review (26 March)
β’ NZ Q1
Consumer Confidence (25 March)
β’ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (23 March)
β’ NZ Q4
Current Account Preview (20 March)
β’ NZ Q4 GDP
Preview (18 March)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.