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Sunday March 29, 2009 - 21:01:27 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz

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Forex Research - Morning Report

Morning Report Monday 30 March 2009

 

News and views

The rally in risk assets took a breather on Friday night, the S&P500 dropping 2% in the first hour, and remaining there for the session's duration, as investors took profit and banks admitted March had been a tough month. European equities also fell 2%. Oil dropped 3.6% on equities weakness. US 10yr treasuries weakened by 2bp, possibly suffering from indigestion after a record issuance week. US 3mth Libor fell 1bp, but more interestingly, was the subject rumours the Fed may try to engineer it lower. 1mth treasury bills traded at a negative yield, -0.01%.

NZD followed suit from 0.5750 to 0.5670, bouncing back above 0.57. NZ interest rates calmed down on Friday, after a torrid week, the 5yr swap at 5.00% after the previous day's almost 50bp spike (see Friday's Rates Strategy publication for our explanation of the volatility).

AUD tumbled from the domestic session's 0.70 level, as stop-losses were triggered by model-driven selling initially, to a late-London low of 0.6866, recovering to 0.6950. AUD/NZD was confined to a 1.21 to 1.22 range, currently at 1.2150.

EUR suffered its biggest daily loss since January, 1.3590 to 1.3260, assisted by comments from German Minister Steinbrueck that the EUR is at risk if the EU stability pact is not taken seriously. GBP fell from almost 1.45 to 1.4270, BoE Miles' caution that UK debt could climb to 70% of GDP adding to the tone. USD/JPY lost ground slightly to 97.85, at one point as low as 97.10.

US March University of Michigan consumer confidence index was revised to 57.3 from the previously estimated 56.6. The index improved slightly relative to February but remained at a dire level consistent with ongoing deep recession. Economic conditions were more pessimistic while the economic outlook was slightly improved.

US core PCE deflator continued its recent rise in February, to 0.24%. Last year's low core PCE readings were partly due to falling energy prices, and oil is no longer falling. Personal disposable income returned to its negative trend after rising last month on tax cuts and benefit increases. Personal spending increased in nominal terms but fell in inflation-adjusted terms, due to higher petrol prices.  

Japan CPI update and Feb retail sales: the inflation and retail updates confirm that price pressures are easing and that spending is weakening as the recession continues. Nationally, core inflation showed that prices were unchanged on a year-ago (as expected) and that for Tokyo, core prices rose by 0.4% over the year, down from 0.6%yr (also as expected). On the retail front, sales contracted by 0.3% in Feb. That saw sales down 5.8%yr, much weaker than the -3.0%yr expected. For large retailers, sales have slumped 8.2%yr.

Germany's flash CPI estimate for March was weaker than expected at -0.2%. Annual inflation fell to 0.4%, and will soon fall below zero.

European industrial orders fell a further 3.4% in January. Revisions to previous months revealed that factory orders are now down more than a third compared to a year ago. Orders for consumer durables were down 26% yr, although the 1.1% January decline was milder than recent months. Orders for capital goods are now down 40% yr and continued to fall at a nasty 4.4% pace in January.

UK Q4 GDP was revised from -1.5% to -1.6%, in line with our expectation. But construction activity was revised down from -1.1% to -4.9%. Recent data suggest GDP has fallen just as precipitously in Q1 2009.

The UK current account deficit was GBP7.6bn seasonally adjusted, having failed to shrink as expected in Q4. There was no improvement in the goods balance, despite cheaper oil and reduced imports, because UK exports also collapsed.  

Outlook

Given the weak tone from New York's close, NZD will probably soften further today, towards 0.5650. We are watching for signs of a top in this month-long NZD rally, but don't expect any until at least tonight's US equities session. Today's economic releases, building permits and M3, are typically not market movers.

 

Latest Research Papers/Publications

• NZ Q4 GDP Review (27 March)

• NZ Q4 Current Account Review (26 March)

• NZ Q1 Consumer Confidence (25 March)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (23 March)

• NZ Q4 Current Account Preview (20 March)

• NZ Q4 GDP Preview (18 March)

These papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac

Institutional Bank’s website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)

 

Upcoming Events

Date Country Release Last Forecast

30 Mar NZ Feb Building Consents s.a. –13.1% 6.4%

US Mar Dallas Fed Mfg PMI –57.3% –45.0%

Jpn Feb Industrial Production %mth –10.2% –10.0%

Eur Mar Retail PMI 42.3 –

Mar Business Climate Indicator –3.51 –3.48

Mar Consumer Confidence –33 –33

Mar Economic Confidence 65.4 65.4

UK Feb Net Consumer Credit £bn 0.4 0.4

Feb Net Lending Sec. on Dwell. £bn 0.7 0.9

31 Mar NZ Mar NBNZ Business Confidence –41.2% –

Aus Feb Private Credit 0.6% 0.5%


Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.

 


 

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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
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15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
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EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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