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Forex Blog - European market Update: G20 prepares for its summit this week; Talk globally, act nationally overtaking central bank policies; Risk aversion theme creeps back into market sentiment.

Today 05:53am EST/09:53am GMT

European market Update: G20 prepares for its summit this week; Talk globally, act nationally overtaking central bank policies; Risk aversion theme creeps back into market sentiment.


*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (SP) Spain Jan Total Housing permits M/M: -39.6% v 8.2% prior; Y/Y: -62.8% v -44.3% prior 

- (SP) Spain March Prelim CPI (EU Harmonized) Y/Y: -0.1% v 0.3%e

- (HU) Hungarian Feb Unemployment Rate: 9.1% v 8.7%e

- (HU) Hungarian Feb Producer Prices M/M: 3.2% v 3.0% prior; Y/Y: 8.0% v 6.5%e

- (NO) Norway Retail Sales M/M: -0.6% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -5.8% v -0.4%e

- (UK) Feb Net Consumer Credit: -£0.2 v £0.4Be; Net Lending on Sec Dwellings: £1.5B v £0.9Be

- (UK) Feb Mortgage Approvals: 38K v 34Ke

- (UK) Feb Final M4 Money Supply M/M: 1.4% v 1.4% prior, Y/Y: 18.7% v 18.8% prior

- (EU) Euro-Zone March Business Climate Indicator: -3.58 v -3.48e; Consumer Confidence: -34 v -34e; Economic Confidence: 64.6 v 65.4e; Industrial Confidence: -38 v -36e; Services Confidence: -25 v -24e

- (BE) Belgian March CPI M/M: -0.6% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 0.6% v 1.93% prior


***SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- Equities: Barclays [BARC.UK], the bank confirmed that the UK FSA is applying the stress test to company in efforts to determine resilience; capital position expected to meet requirements. Barclays itself has confirmed that its capital position and resources, after exposure to the stress, are expected to continue to meet the FSA capital requirements. Reportedly, if/when the FSA formerly confirms that pass, the bank will to not seek action regarding UK APS. || Tui Travel [TT.UK] announced cooperation agreement with Air
Berlin. Under the terms of the Transaction, TUIfly will continue to operate 38 aircraft and will enter into long-term wet lease contracts with Air Berlin and TUI Germany. 17 aircraft will be operated for Air Berlin. This represents the transfer of the 'city-pairs' flying operation to Air Berlin, along with full commercial responsibility and risk. The aircraft will be operated under the Air Berlin brand. 21 aircraft will be operated for TUI Germany, which will provide dedicated capacity for our charter business in Germany. This business will retain the TUIfly brand. TUI Travel will acquire a 19.9% equity stake in Air Berlin for cash consideration of €64.8M, via a capital increase in Air Berlin. Air Berlin will acquire a 19.9% equity stake in TUIfly for €36.3M, also in cash. Upon completio, TUI Travel will receive the right to nominate one non-executive director to the Board of Air Berlin. || Dana Petroleum [DNX.UK] reported its FY08 Net at £96.2M, lower than the £106.9M expected and its pre-tax at £191.4M v £228.3M expected. Dana put its proven/reliable resources at 194.1M BOE at the end of FY08 and planned its FY09 CAPEX at £235M. Further, Dana plans a total of 17 exploration/new wells in FY09. At the end of FY08, the groups cash reserves stand at £158.9M. || British Airways [BAY.UK], reportedly talks between BA and Iberia have made little progress toward finalization -Times. Article cites insiders who note that stumbling blocks on over 12 issues still remain to be settled. Merger talks have been ongoing between two carriers since August 2007. Previously, both BA and Iberia have stated that they had sought a final decision by end of March 2009. ||Rio Tinto [RIO.UK ], BHP has received shareholder approval to pursue acquisitions; BHP may revist a deal with Rio Tinto - London Telegraph. BHP has told Goldman Sachs to examine its strategic options after it raised more than $6B selling bonds. Under agreement from prior acquisition attempt, BHP has to wait until November of 2009 to re-approach Rio. ||Sistema [SSA.UK], it has acquired a controlling stake in Bashkir Oil and Energy Group for $2.5B. The Co has signed an agreement with Agidel-Invest LLC, Ural-Invest LLC, Inzer-Invest LLC and Yuryuzan-Invest LLC to acquire their stakes in Bashkir Oil and Energy Group companies, including ANK Bashneft JSC, Ufaneftechim JSC, Novoil JSC, Ufaorgsintez JSC, Ufimskiy NPZ JSC and Bashkirnefteprodukt JSC. The deal is expected to be concluded for a total cash consideration of $ 2.5B. The payment is being made in two tranches with $2.0B paid upon the completion and $500N being paid on a deferred basis after 14 months. The completion of the deal is contingent upon the fulfillment of a number of conditions. || Peugot [UG.FR] CEO Christian Streiff to resign. The board voted to remove the executive from his post immediately. ||EADS [EAD.FR], China President: Has had no order cancellations from Chinese airliners so far. Stated that some delays in aircraft delivery to Chinese airlines and some Chinese airlines have changed aircraft models, sees delivery delays as "normal" under current conditions. Expects orders for 3,000 aircraft from China in the next 20 yrs. On additionally topic: Update: CEO notes that A400 will not be continued at any cost -Spiegel. Seeks to make aircraft a success, will reproach German and French governments. Will not build the plane if the cost to EAD's is unacceptable or not profitable. || Air Berlin [AB1.GE] reported its FY08 Net Loss at €75M, this was lower than the expected loss €23.3Me, EBIT €14.2M v €18.6Me, and Rev €3.40B v €3.37Be. The carrier sees some signs of demand growth following bookings rate growth in first few months of 2009. Air Berlin expects 2009 bookings currently down slightly from y/y figures. ||

Hypo Realestate [HRX.GE] confirms German government to acquire a stake in the share capital of co. As a first step to recapitalize Hypo Real Estate Group, SoFFin has committed itself to acquiring 20 million Hypo Real Estate shares to be issued under authorized capital, at the minimum price prescribed by law of €3.00 per share, to the exclusion of shareholders' pre-emptive rights. The entire issue amount of €60M thus payable by SoFFin will be made available to Hypo Real Estate Holding AG, not to the existing shareholders. SoFFin will thus acquire a stake of approx. 8.7 per cent in Hypo Real Estate Holding AG. || Siemens [SIE.GE] has been awarded an €350M contract to build power and water facility in Emirates, the order is for
Abu Dhabi in combined cylce power plant. || [GM], German Opel Labor Leader: Sees new CEO Henderson as more inclined towards greater OPEL independence. Reminder: On March 29 -WSJ states CEO Rick Wagoner will resign and to be replaced on an interim basis by COO Fritz Henderson. || Banco Popolare Scarl [BP.IT] Banca Italease unit report a FY08 net loss of €1.1B v €525.6M y/y. The unit's write-downs in 2008 totaled more than €850M. || Seadrill [SDRL.NO] Announces stake purchase in Petromena for approx NOK1.1B. Purchase made through 80% stake in NOK2B bond offer being held through Petromena. || UBS [UBSN.SZ] may cut 8,000 additional jobs and "writedown billions" - Sonntag. Writedowns may include CHF2.0B in credit redemptions because risk premiums have increased and around CHF1.0B in CLO portfolio. Job cuts will be announced soon and


- Speakers: ECB's Bini Smaghi commented that focusing on short term steps to revive economic growth would prove to be a mistake. He did add that it would be difficult to make prediction for the year and that risk aversion would be high for some period of time || World Bank report saw the Russian economy contracting by 4.5% in 2009 with inflation inn a range of 11% to 13%. || Spain Econ Min Solbes commented that
Spain's banking system remained healthy || Irish PM Cowen noted in a radio address the budget adjustment would take years. These comments followed a Times article which reported that the emergency budget on Apr 7th would be 'difficult' and that the PM Cowen signaled that government revenue might drop to around €32B in 2009 around €2B lower than previously predicted || Japanese LDP panel: Might issue construction and deficit covering bonds for new stimulus package || Brazilian Pres Lula commented that the economic and financial crisis was now threatening emerging markets. Restoring credit and free trade among the key issues. || IMF's Belka commented that the sharp downturn in the global trade flows should be temporary but cautioned that some international trade flows might disappear forever if US savings rate increased


- In Currencies: Risk aversion back in play. Both the JPY and USD strengthened to 2-week highs against their related pairs following an Obama administration official who commented that bankruptcy might be the best option for GM and Chrysler. 

- March 31st marks to end of the Japanese fiscal year. Overall dealers thinking that USD/JPY is a 'long term' buy as economic conditions worsen and demand for JPY should ebb in near future. The EUR/USD level of 1.3130 was the area the pair was trading ahead of the Fed's quantitative easing some two-weeks ago and being eyed as pivotal support. . 


- Fixed income: Broad based risk aversion has prompted strength in Government bonds in
Europe this morning., Long bond futures are leading the way up, higher by almost a full point ahead of Fed purchases later in the New York afternoon. Euro-zone peripheral bonds are weaker against the bund this morning . Italy sold just under €10B in conventional BTP's and floating rate notes with weak results pushing the yield on the Italian 10y as high as 140bps over Bunds. Greece announced it would tap its 5.5% 2014 bonds later today, with pricing indicated around 230bps over mid-swap and the anticipated supply pushed the yield on the Greek 10y to 270bps over Bunds, its widest level in a month. In other supply news, Germany sold just over €2.8B in a 12 month Bubill, and Slovakia sold €195M in 2y zero coupon bonds.


- In Energy:
Senior Gulf OPEC Delegate commented that Gulf sees oil prices at $50/barrel are good enough for now. He added that it was too early to tell if OPEC needed to cut output during May meeting. Oil market fundamentals should improve in H2 of 2009 || South Africa's ESKOM might reduce its tariff increase request. Business day reported that National Energy Regulator for electricity tariffs to be raised by 34% for the year ahead compared to the 88% it was considering "a few weeks ago," || Sinopec [SNP] Chairman: Reviewing overseas acquisition targets; and was not expecting oil prices to remain at 'very low levels' for a long time. The company was seeking approval form stake holders to directly approve overseas deals and reviewing acquisition targets in Africa, South America 


- Credit Crisis: Spain mounted its first major bank rescue in 16 years as the state took over Caja Castilla-La Mancha after efforts to arrange its purchase by a rival failed.


*** NOTES ***

- Talk globally, act nationally. Monetary Authority of Singapore reportedly seeks to weaken its currency by around 4% to aid exporters. - G20 prepare to meet in
London later this week. The City of London prepares for a long week of hooliganism leading up to the event. Protectionism will be a major theme.

- Several change leadership at the top of auto makers. as GM and Peugeot make changes

- US Govt task force rejects viability plans for GM and Chrysler. Bankruptcy remains an option. 

- Global equities lower on the renewed bout of risk aversion. USD and JPY firmer as a result..

- Looking Ahead: 

-
9:00 (UK) BoE's Jenkinson speaks in London

- 10:30 (
US) Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: -50.0% expected v -57.3% prior

- 10:30 (EU) ECB's Trichet and Wellink speak in European Parliament

- 11:00 (GE) ECB's Weber speaks in
Frankfurt



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