- Equities across the board are stumbling this morning led by profit taking in
the financials and fresh headlines for the auto sector. Over the weekend the
Obama administration forced a CEO change at GM and, has given both GM and
Chrysler one last chance to announce a plan that meets the government's
requirements for continued federal monies. Many see the government's latest
move as an indication that some form of bankruptcy for the lion's share of the US
car industry is closer than ever. The major US
indices have lost more than 3.5% by mid morning, and remain at or near their
worst levels. NYMEX crude is hovering around $50, down nearly $2.20.
- Risk averse trades are sending money into government bonds. Prices have moved
off their best levels following the results of the Feds reverse auction at the
long end of the curve. The Fed bought close to $2.5B in longer dated maturities
as opposed to the nearly $4B that some analysts had forecasted. The long bond
yield is holding close to 3.6% up about 5 basis points from pre-auction result
- The Obama Administration gave failing marks to the restructuring plans from
General Motors and Chrysler on Sunday; shares of GM fell as much as 34% just
after the open before perking up a bit. Shares of Ford are off 7% or so in
sympathy. The White House has pledged to provide GM with aid for 60 days while
it tries to come up with a better plan, while giving financial aid to Chrysler
for 30 days so it can wrap up a partnership deal with Fiat. GM CEO Rick Wagoner
will resign as a condition for receiving further aid, replaced on an interim
basis by COO Fritz Henderson. In his statement to the WSJ, Wagoner said â€śOn
Friday I was in Washington for a
meeting with administration officials. In the course of that meeting, they
requested that I step aside as CEO of GM, and so I have.â€ť GM has made no
further comment to the media on the issue, although Wagoner said he fully
supports Henderson, calling the
move an â€śideal choice.â€ť An S&P analyst said the risk of bankruptcy for GM,
Ford and Chrysler remains as high as ever. Shares of auto parts suppliers were
lower this morning across the board, with American Axle down 18% early on.
- Leading financial stocks are down significantly this morning, with Citi and
Bank of America down around 11% each in the early going. Note that yesterday
morning Treasury Sec Geithner told "Meet the Press" that there was
$135B of funding left in the TARP program, also saying that it would be a
mistake to think that banks will earn their way out of the crisis. Earlier in
the session, China Construction Bank President Zhang said that selling the
bank's BoA stake down to 10% (from around 17%) would be appropriate.
- In other equity news, Manitowoc
withdrew its previous FY09 guidance and said it would not issue a forecast for
the year, and guided Q1 earnings 50% below current estimates of $0.21e
(implying less than $0.10/shr). MTW is around its worst levels at -35%. Arena
Pharma's Phase III Lorcaserin obesity trial met their primary efficacy and
safety endpoints, but overall weight loss was much less than had been expected.
Shares of ARNA were down more than 30% early on, recovering to around -20% mid
- In currencies risk aversion continued into the New York
morning as renewed concerns over Eastern Europe
magnified the shockwaves from the US
auto situation. Note that S&P cut Hungary's sovereign long-term rating one
notch from BBB to BBB- (the lowest level of investment grade) with a negative
outlook, citing the ongoing deterioration in economic and fiscal indicators in
the country. The EUR/USD has moved lower, probing the 1.3130 area, which was
where the pair was dealing prior to the Fed's big quantitative easing move nearly
two weeks ago. Futher compounding euro weakness is Spain's
announcement over the weekend of the country's first major bank rescue in 16
years. Dealers noted that the bank nationalized today is one 45 state banks,
begging the question â€śhow many others are out there waiting?â€ť. Dealer chatter
is circulating that Spanish banks have â‚¬500B in outstanding MBS, with roughly
60% owned by foreigners and Germany's
share comprising around 20%.
- The ECB's Trichet discussed the European economic outlook this morning,
noting that it has continued to deteriorate since January and that he expects
interest rates to remain below 2% for some time (2009 and 2010). Trichet also
noted that demand would be very weak in 2009 but reiterated his view that a
gradual recovery should take place in 2010. A French official commented that
the upcoming G20 summit in London would not address reserve currency issues.
The official added that he USD should not weaken "too much" and
called the Chinese SDR proposal for replacement of USD as reserve currency a
possibly good long-term strategy.
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Mon 12 Mar 2018 A 17:00 US- 3-Yr Auction Tue 13 Mar 2018 A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey AA 12:30 US- CPI A 17:00 US- 10-Yr Auction Wed 14 Feb 2018 AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 17:00 US- 30-Yr Auction Thu 15 Mar 2018 A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless A 12:30 US- Philly Fed, Empire PMI A 12:15 US- Industrial Production Fri 16 Mar 2018 A 10:00 EZ- final HICP A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits A 14:00 US- prelim Univ of Mich
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
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Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
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Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
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