- Equities across the board are stumbling this morning led by profit taking in
the financials and fresh headlines for the auto sector. Over the weekend the
Obama administration forced a CEO change at GM and, has given both GM and
Chrysler one last chance to announce a plan that meets the government's
requirements for continued federal monies. Many see the government's latest
move as an indication that some form of bankruptcy for the lion's share of the US
car industry is closer than ever. The major US
indices have lost more than 3.5% by mid morning, and remain at or near their
worst levels. NYMEX crude is hovering around $50, down nearly $2.20.
- Risk averse trades are sending money into government bonds. Prices have moved
off their best levels following the results of the Feds reverse auction at the
long end of the curve. The Fed bought close to $2.5B in longer dated maturities
as opposed to the nearly $4B that some analysts had forecasted. The long bond
yield is holding close to 3.6% up about 5 basis points from pre-auction result
- The Obama Administration gave failing marks to the restructuring plans from
General Motors and Chrysler on Sunday; shares of GM fell as much as 34% just
after the open before perking up a bit. Shares of Ford are off 7% or so in
sympathy. The White House has pledged to provide GM with aid for 60 days while
it tries to come up with a better plan, while giving financial aid to Chrysler
for 30 days so it can wrap up a partnership deal with Fiat. GM CEO Rick Wagoner
will resign as a condition for receiving further aid, replaced on an interim
basis by COO Fritz Henderson. In his statement to the WSJ, Wagoner said â€śOn
Friday I was in Washington for a
meeting with administration officials. In the course of that meeting, they
requested that I step aside as CEO of GM, and so I have.â€ť GM has made no
further comment to the media on the issue, although Wagoner said he fully
supports Henderson, calling the
move an â€śideal choice.â€ť An S&P analyst said the risk of bankruptcy for GM,
Ford and Chrysler remains as high as ever. Shares of auto parts suppliers were
lower this morning across the board, with American Axle down 18% early on.
- Leading financial stocks are down significantly this morning, with Citi and
Bank of America down around 11% each in the early going. Note that yesterday
morning Treasury Sec Geithner told "Meet the Press" that there was
$135B of funding left in the TARP program, also saying that it would be a
mistake to think that banks will earn their way out of the crisis. Earlier in
the session, China Construction Bank President Zhang said that selling the
bank's BoA stake down to 10% (from around 17%) would be appropriate.
- In other equity news, Manitowoc
withdrew its previous FY09 guidance and said it would not issue a forecast for
the year, and guided Q1 earnings 50% below current estimates of $0.21e
(implying less than $0.10/shr). MTW is around its worst levels at -35%. Arena
Pharma's Phase III Lorcaserin obesity trial met their primary efficacy and
safety endpoints, but overall weight loss was much less than had been expected.
Shares of ARNA were down more than 30% early on, recovering to around -20% mid
- In currencies risk aversion continued into the New York
morning as renewed concerns over Eastern Europe
magnified the shockwaves from the US
auto situation. Note that S&P cut Hungary's sovereign long-term rating one
notch from BBB to BBB- (the lowest level of investment grade) with a negative
outlook, citing the ongoing deterioration in economic and fiscal indicators in
the country. The EUR/USD has moved lower, probing the 1.3130 area, which was
where the pair was dealing prior to the Fed's big quantitative easing move nearly
two weeks ago. Futher compounding euro weakness is Spain's
announcement over the weekend of the country's first major bank rescue in 16
years. Dealers noted that the bank nationalized today is one 45 state banks,
begging the question â€śhow many others are out there waiting?â€ť. Dealer chatter
is circulating that Spanish banks have â‚¬500B in outstanding MBS, with roughly
60% owned by foreigners and Germany's
share comprising around 20%.
- The ECB's Trichet discussed the European economic outlook this morning,
noting that it has continued to deteriorate since January and that he expects
interest rates to remain below 2% for some time (2009 and 2010). Trichet also
noted that demand would be very weak in 2009 but reiterated his view that a
gradual recovery should take place in 2010. A French official commented that
the upcoming G20 summit in London would not address reserve currency issues.
The official added that he USD should not weaken "too much" and
called the Chinese SDR proposal for replacement of USD as reserve currency a
possibly good long-term strategy.
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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