Sunday April 5, 2009 - 21:27:48 GMT
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Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Forex Research - Morning Report
Morning Report Monday 6 April 2009
News and views
Pre-weekend profit-taking limited gains in risk, global equities closing only slightly higher. The S&P500 closed up 1.0%, but Europe was weaker, the Eurostoxx down 0.8%. Risk aversion measure VIX closed slightly below the pivotal 40 level, at 39.70; a sustained fall should see model traders increasing long risk positions further. Oil and copper were little changed, but gold lost 1.2% on the aversion to risk aversion. US 10 year treasuries weakened considerably, 12bp to 2.89%, partly on investors switching to equities, and partly on the Fedâ€™s Bernanke saying they must be ready to unwind their stimulus programs when the crisis abates. US payrolls were as expected, resulting in a small boost to risk. North Koreaâ€™s planned rocket launch was delayed due to unfavourable weather.
NZD was contained within a 0.58 and 0.59 range, apart from brief a dip to 0.5774. Wednesdayâ€™s RBNZ verbal intervention has been more than nullified by global factors.
AUD gyrated sideways between 0.71 and 0.72, apart from a brief dip to 0.7060 on an Alan Mitchell article suggesting the OECD global downgrades for 2009, and negative GDP tipped by the RBA for Australia, had shifted the odds in favour of a rate cut on Tuesday. AUD/NZD sat in a tight 1.2170 to 1.2265 range.
EUR ranged between 1.34 to 1.35, payrolls lifting it to the upper end, before dipping briefly to 1.3365. It opened this morning above 1.35. GBP continued higher from 1.4650 to 1.4845, its current level. USD/JPY stepped higher, 99.35 to 100.40.
US non-farm payrolls fell 663k, close to market expectations. A large revision to January made that the worst month of payrolls decline, at â€“743k. Even if February and March are eventually revised to larger declines, it does appear that the monthly rate of job losses has stabilized since the start of the year. There was no letup for the construction industry, which shed another 126k jobs. However, manufacturing job losses do appear to be past their peak. The industry breakdown of job losses is now very broad, with only education and health posting an
increase. The separate household survey found 861k job losses, taking the official unemployment rate to 8.5%, the highest since 1983. Hourly earnings growth remained slow at 0.2% which indicates that high-paid as well as lower-paid workers losing their jobs. Average weekly hours remained rock-bottom at 33.2.
US March non-manufacturing ISM fell to 40.8 from 41.6 on the composite index. Business activity actually increased, but this was offset by falls in employment and new orders. Prices paid fell sharply, underscoring ongoing generalised disinflationary pressure.
Euroland March services PMI was revised up by 0.8 pts to 40.9. While that represents a decent improvement on February, the Services PMI is still well below the miserable December and January levels.
UK Services PMI stepped up to 45.5, the fourth consecutive month of increase. UK HBOS measure of house prices fell 1.9% in March, to be 17.5% lower than a year ago.
Global influences continue to dominate the NZD. Should risk-buying continue this week, the NZD will likely reach 0.60 and beyond. Todayâ€™s tone will be determined mainly by EUR/USD, as well as S&P500 futures.
Latest Research Papers/Publications
â€¢ An update on the mortgage market (1 April)
â€¢ NZ Q1 Employment Confidence Index (1 April)
â€¢ NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (30 March)
â€¢ NZ Q4 Current Account Review (26 March)
â€¢ NZ Q1 Consumer Confidence (25 March)
â€¢ NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (23 March)
â€¢ NZ Q4 Current Account Preview (20 March)
These papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Institutional Bankâ€™s website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)
Date Country Release Last Forecast
6 Apr Aus Mar TD Securities Inflation 0.7% â€“
Mar ANZ Job Ads â€“10.4% â€“
Jpn Feb Leading Index 77.2 â€“
BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting
Eur Apr Sentix Investor Confidence â€“42.7 â€“
Feb PPI %yr â€“0.5% â€“
Feb Retail Sales %yr â€“2.2% â€“
UK Feb Trade Balance â€“5.7 â€“
7 Apr NZ Q1 NZIER Business Confidence â€“64% â€“
Aus RBA Rate Announcement 3.25% 2.75%
Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. Â© 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.
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