Wall Street retreated slightly last
night, analysts casting doubt
on the health of US banks. George Soros went further and said the banking system
as a whole was insolvent. The S&P500 is currently down 0.8%, banks down
5.4%. The sentiment pushed oil down 2.7%, and copper fell 1.8%. Deeper rooted optimism saw gold selling continue,
-2.6%. US 10yr treasuries also lost the correlation with
risk, weakening by 4bp, citing looming supply and disappointment over the
amount the Fed bought yesterday. The US reporting season kicks off tonight, with a poor
result expected from Alcoa, and this is likely to weigh on risk appetite.
NZD followed AUD down to 0.5850, and is currently
consolidating around 0.5880. Positioning is light ahead of the RBA meeting, and
expectations the QSBO survey this morning could dampen the mood has stalled the
AUD followed US equities throughout the evening
session, falling to 0.7080, and recovering slightly to 0.7135 this morning. The
odds of a 50bp cut have increased since the weekend, such a move likely to be
negative for AUD. AUD/NZD ranged between 1.2050 and 1.2150, this morning
nudging the upper boundary.
EUR fell from 1.3550 to 1.3360, recovering to
1.3420. ECB's Smaghi said, in theory, FX intervention is warranted. GBP
was supported during early Europe by the successful HSBC rights issue, but then
slipped from 1.4960 to 1.4670, recovering a cent. USD/JPY's rise was checked
at 101.44, followed by a yen fall and consolidation around 101.00.
No US data to report.
Euroland February retail sales fell
0.6%, substantially weaker than
expected. Retail trade has now fallen 4% over the past year, and indicators
such as consumer confidence suggest worse to come.
Euroland April Sentix Investor
confidence rose to -35.3, from
-40.7 in March. It has been bouncing around these low levels since November
Euroland February PPI fell 0.5%. Revisions brought the annual figure to -1.8%.
These falls are not surprising given that the PPI is more sensitive than the
CPI to oil prices.
Canada March building permits fell
15.9%, even worse than
Westpac's bottom-of-the-market forecast. The fall was exaggerated by an
outsized drop in institutional buildings. However, genuine weakness was
widespread, including a 20% in commercial permits and a 5.5% drop in permits
for single-family dwellings.
Canada March Ivey PMI fell to 43.2 from 45.2m, against market expectations of a
rise to 47. This was the fifth consecutive decline.
While the global backdrop has been positive
during the past month, today's QSBO should be a dampener. The RBA outcome is
highly uncertain, so we refrain from making any predictions, other than to say
50bp should result in a lower NZD. A poor US reporting season will weigh on
global equities, and in turn the NZD, during April. Today, 0.58 to 0.59 is our
(low confidence) suggested range.
β’ An update
on the mortgage market (1 April)
β’ NZ Q1
Employment Confidence Index (1 April)
β’ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (30 March)
β’ NZ Q4
Current Account Review (26 March)
β’ NZ Q1
Consumer Confidence (25 March)
β’ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (23 March)
β’ NZ Q4
Current Account Preview (20 March)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
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