Wall Street retreated slightly last
night, analysts casting doubt
on the health of US banks. George Soros went further and said the banking system
as a whole was insolvent. The S&P500 is currently down 0.8%, banks down
5.4%. The sentiment pushed oil down 2.7%, and copper fell 1.8%. Deeper rooted optimism saw gold selling continue,
-2.6%. US 10yr treasuries also lost the correlation with
risk, weakening by 4bp, citing looming supply and disappointment over the
amount the Fed bought yesterday. The US reporting season kicks off tonight, with a poor
result expected from Alcoa, and this is likely to weigh on risk appetite.
NZD followed AUD down to 0.5850, and is currently
consolidating around 0.5880. Positioning is light ahead of the RBA meeting, and
expectations the QSBO survey this morning could dampen the mood has stalled the
AUD followed US equities throughout the evening
session, falling to 0.7080, and recovering slightly to 0.7135 this morning. The
odds of a 50bp cut have increased since the weekend, such a move likely to be
negative for AUD. AUD/NZD ranged between 1.2050 and 1.2150, this morning
nudging the upper boundary.
EUR fell from 1.3550 to 1.3360, recovering to
1.3420. ECB's Smaghi said, in theory, FX intervention is warranted. GBP
was supported during early Europe by the successful HSBC rights issue, but then
slipped from 1.4960 to 1.4670, recovering a cent. USD/JPY's rise was checked
at 101.44, followed by a yen fall and consolidation around 101.00.
No US data to report.
Euroland February retail sales fell
0.6%, substantially weaker than
expected. Retail trade has now fallen 4% over the past year, and indicators
such as consumer confidence suggest worse to come.
Euroland April Sentix Investor
confidence rose to -35.3, from
-40.7 in March. It has been bouncing around these low levels since November
Euroland February PPI fell 0.5%. Revisions brought the annual figure to -1.8%.
These falls are not surprising given that the PPI is more sensitive than the
CPI to oil prices.
Canada March building permits fell
15.9%, even worse than
Westpac's bottom-of-the-market forecast. The fall was exaggerated by an
outsized drop in institutional buildings. However, genuine weakness was
widespread, including a 20% in commercial permits and a 5.5% drop in permits
for single-family dwellings.
Canada March Ivey PMI fell to 43.2 from 45.2m, against market expectations of a
rise to 47. This was the fifth consecutive decline.
While the global backdrop has been positive
during the past month, today's QSBO should be a dampener. The RBA outcome is
highly uncertain, so we refrain from making any predictions, other than to say
50bp should result in a lower NZD. A poor US reporting season will weigh on
global equities, and in turn the NZD, during April. Today, 0.58 to 0.59 is our
(low confidence) suggested range.
â€¢ An update
on the mortgage market (1 April)
â€¢ NZ Q1
Employment Confidence Index (1 April)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (30 March)
â€¢ NZ Q4
Current Account Review (26 March)
â€¢ NZ Q1
Consumer Confidence (25 March)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (23 March)
â€¢ NZ Q4
Current Account Preview (20 March)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
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Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Max McKegg’s Daily Forex Trading Forecasts
FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the
Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders
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