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Monday April 6, 2009 - 22:16:06 GMT
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Forex Research - Morning Report

Morning Report Tuesday 7 April 2009

News and views

Wall Street retreated slightly last night, analysts casting doubt on the health of US banks. George Soros went further and said the banking system as a whole was insolvent. The S&P500 is currently down 0.8%, banks down 5.4%. The sentiment pushed oil down 2.7%, and copper fell 1.8%. Deeper rooted optimism saw gold selling continue, -2.6%. US 10yr treasuries also lost the correlation with risk, weakening by 4bp, citing looming supply and disappointment over the amount the Fed bought yesterday. The US reporting season kicks off tonight, with a poor result expected from Alcoa, and this is likely to weigh on risk appetite.

NZD followed AUD down to 0.5850, and is currently consolidating around 0.5880. Positioning is light ahead of the RBA meeting, and expectations the QSBO survey this morning could dampen the mood has stalled the NZD rally.

AUD followed US equities throughout the evening session, falling to 0.7080, and recovering slightly to 0.7135 this morning. The odds of a 50bp cut have increased since the weekend, such a move likely to be negative for AUD. AUD/NZD ranged between 1.2050 and 1.2150, this morning nudging the upper boundary.

EUR fell from 1.3550 to 1.3360, recovering to 1.3420. ECB's Smaghi said, in theory, FX intervention is warranted. GBP was supported during early Europe by the successful HSBC rights issue, but then slipped from 1.4960 to 1.4670, recovering a cent. USD/JPY's rise was checked at 101.44, followed by a yen fall and consolidation around 101.00.

No US data to report.

Euroland February retail sales fell 0.6%, substantially weaker than expected. Retail trade has now fallen 4% over the past year, and indicators such as consumer confidence suggest worse to come.

Euroland April Sentix Investor confidence rose to -35.3, from -40.7 in March. It has been bouncing around these low levels since November last year.

Euroland February PPI fell 0.5%. Revisions brought the annual figure to -1.8%. These falls are not surprising given that the PPI is more sensitive than the CPI to oil prices.

Canada March building permits fell 15.9%, even worse than Westpac's bottom-of-the-market forecast. The fall was exaggerated by an outsized drop in institutional buildings. However, genuine weakness was widespread, including a 20% in commercial permits and a 5.5% drop in permits for single-family dwellings.

Canada March Ivey PMI fell to 43.2 from 45.2m, against market expectations of a rise to 47. This was the fifth consecutive decline.


While the global backdrop has been positive during the past month, today's QSBO should be a dampener. The RBA outcome is highly uncertain, so we refrain from making any predictions, other than to say 50bp should result in a lower NZD. A poor US reporting season will weigh on global equities, and in turn the NZD, during April. Today, 0.58 to 0.59 is our (low confidence) suggested range.


Latest Research Papers/Publications

• An update on the mortgage market (1 April)

• NZ Q1 Employment Confidence Index (1 April)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (30 March)

• NZ Q4 Current Account Review (26 March)

• NZ Q1 Consumer Confidence (25 March)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (23 March)

• NZ Q4 Current Account Preview (20 March)

These papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac

Institutional Bank’s website (


Upcoming Events

Date Country Release Last Forecast

7 Apr NZ Q1 NZIER Business Confidence –64% –

Aus RBA Policy Announcement 3.25% 3.25%

US Feb Consumer Credit $bn 1.8 –3.0

Jpn Bank of Japan Policy Meeting 0.10% 0.10%

Eur Q4 GDP (F) –1.5% a –1.6%

UK Feb Industrial Production –2.6% –2.1%

8 Apr Aus Apr Westpac-MI Consumer Sent 85.6 –

Feb Housing Finance (no.) 3.5% 1.5%

US Feb Wholesale Inventories –0.7% –0.8%

Minutes of March FOMC Meeting

58.46 +0.33



Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.





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