US equities slipped for the second
day, after month's 27% rally.
The S&P500 closed down 2.4% on jitters ahead of the US reporting season. After the NY close, Alcoa was
first to report, with its loss a penny below expectations. General Motors' was
said to be preparing for possible bankruptcy, and contributed to the mood. The
US Treasury said it would delay the results of bank stress tests until after
the earnings report season, fearing stock market reaction. Oil fell 4.0% on the
equities move, but copper managed a 0.8% rise on reports of increased shipments
to China. US 10 year treasuries gained by 3bp on
NZD fell through 0.58 support, following the
equities move, as well as the residual effects of the weak NZIER business
survey. It then sat in a 0.5750 to 0.5800 range, testing the bottom early this
morning. Financial conditions are now estimated to be over 200bps tighter than
on 12 March, the date of the last OCR review, and this will be of concern to
AUD gyrated in a 0.7060 to 0.7190 range, unaffected
by the bearish global environment. This was likely due to the RBA's token 25bp
rate cut yesterday, as well as articles last night from the two most
influential writers on Australian monetary policy, both Mitchell and McCrann
suggesting little further easing can be expected in this cycle. The AUD's
decoupling from US equities saw AUD/NZD post an impressive 1.2250 to 1.2390
rally, a 3% gain now in two days.
EUR tumbled from 1.3400 to 1.3225, with more ECB
media comments on 1% not necessarily being a floor in rates, and purchases of
corporate debt a possibility. GBP rebounded from a 1.4585 low to 1.4775,
possibly assisted by a better than expected IP report. JPY was contained
in a 100 to 101 range.
US IBD/TIPP consumer optimism survey rose to 49.1
in April, close to the level of
net optimism for the fist time since last November. The economic outlook
increased sharply, while the personal financial outlook increased a little.
Both are now in optimistic territory. The assessment of Federal policies fell,
and remains pessimistic than expected.
Bank of Japan left target overnight call rate at 0.10% at yesterday's policy board meeting with little
room to cut further. It continues to announce that it will widen the range of
collateral it accepts from banks, to include municipal debt, in continued
efforts to encourage bank lending.
Eurozone Q4 GDP was revised to -1.6% in the final estimate, from the previously
estimated -1.5%. Revisions to previous quarters brought the annual growth
figure down to -1.5%. There were large, offsetting revisions to the components.
Household and government spending were revised up, while investment was revised
UK February industrial production fell a further
1.0%. Industrial production has
fallen 12.5% in the past year, and has not posted a monthly gain for 15 months.
Manufacturing contracted by slightly less than the mining and energy
components, whereas for most of the past year it has been the other way around.
The silver lining is that February's decline in manufacturing and total
industrial production was the smallest since the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
Sentiment has turned, for the short term at
least. US equities could be pressured while earnings
reports are released this week, in turn weakening the NZD. Today, 0.58 is firm
resistance, while 0.5750 has been tested a few times, and would be expected to
â€¢ NZ Q1 QSBO
Review (7 April)
â€¢ An update
on the mortgage market (1 April)
â€¢ NZ Q1
Employment Confidence Index (1 April)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (30 March)
â€¢ NZ Q4
Current Account Review (26 March)
â€¢ NZ Q1
Consumer Confidence (25 March)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
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