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Forex Blog - European Market Update: IEA again lowers its 2009 global oil demand estimate by another 1M bpd

Today 06:24am EST/10:24am GMT

European Market Update: IEA again lowers its 2009 global oil demand estimate by another 1M bpd

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (CH) China Mar Trade balance: $18.6B v $12.10Be; Exports Y/Y: -17.1% v -20.0%e;Y/Y: -25.1% v -22.0%e

- China's Mar Trade Surplus with US at $10.25B, down 12.5% y/y; US Imports $6.2B, down 12.7% y/y

- (FR) France Mar Consumer price index M/M; 0.2% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.4%e

- (FR) France Mar CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.5%e

- (FR) France Mar CPI Ex Tobacco Index: v 117.9e

- (FR) France Feb Central Gov't Balance: -€29.9B v -€8.1B prior

- (FR) France Feb Industrial Production M/M: -0.5% v -1.0%e; Y/Y: -15.5% v -14.8%e

- (FR) France Feb Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.1% v -1.2%e; Y/Y: -17.8% v -17.6%e

- (HU) Hungary Mar Consumer prices M/M: 0.5% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 2.9% v 3.0%e

- (TU) Turkey Mar capacity Utilization: 64.7% v 65.4%e


***SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- Equities: Korea's posco [PKX] Reported Q1 Net profit of KRW325B below the expectations of KRW367.6B and revenues were KRW6.47T also below consensus forecasts of KRW6.98T. It lowerd its 2009 revenue guidance to KRW25T compares with forecasts of KRW27.11T. || SAN.FR: Japanese unit targeting sales increase of 60% over 5 years. It sought to become one of the top 5 drug makers in Japan within that period. || Aegis [AGS.UK: FT: Bollore ends fight for representation on co. Board. Article noted that Vincent Bolloré, the French investor, on Thursday ended his four-year battle for representation on the board of Aegis saying the performance of the company was “no longer an important point of concern”. || Alcatel-Lucent [ALU.FR] Awarded a Vietnamese contract by Vinaphone but no financial terms were disclosed. Alcatel-Lucent would design, deploy and maintain its GSM/EDGE radio access solution including its latest Base Station Controller platform and TWIN transceivers.


- Speakers: Japanese PM Aso stated that the Government approved economic stimulus package, which would protect the economy from slipping further into recession. Japan to spend ¥15T in stimulus package; total ¥57T with financial measures || Japan's Yosano stated that he sought to submit budget legislation by Apr 27th to funds stimulus package ||Chinese Central bank Advisor Fan commented that the economic outlook appeared favorable || Vietnam Central Bank cuts refinancing rate by 100bps to 7.0%, discount rate to 5.0% from 6.0% prior


- In Currencies: All the 'action' was in Asia as mild stop-loss hunting was the only notable activity with European markets closed in the session. USD/JPY pushed through stops at 100.60 in early Tokyo to trade to 100.72 highs and drift back as low as 100.22. Similarly, the market went after EUR/USD stops under 1.3100 for a brief push to 1.3092 before a bounce back to 1.3130 level.


- Fixed income: Markets closed for European Holiday


- In Energy: IEA: Cuts its 2009 World Oil Demand estimate by another 1M bpd to 83.4M bpd and noting that global oil demand was at its lowest level since 2004. The IEA now sees 2009 oil demand declining by 2.4M bdp, which equates to 2.8% y/y. The IEA cites continued concerns over the impact of the global recession for its most recent revision. The IEA sees 2009 global GDP contracting by 1.4% (prior view was for a small increase). Weak oil market fundamentals, could weigh on price trends, supply side impact of crisis lagging demand side effects. OPEC Effective spare capacity 5.5M bpd v 2.3M bpd y/y and March OPEC crude supply down 235k bps to 27.8M bpd. In Non OPEC supply the 2009 forecast was cut by 320K Bpd to 50.3M Bpd. March Global Oil Supply down 400K Bpd to 83.4M bpd ||Nigerian rebel group MEND reject amnesty offered by ruling Nigerian government || Russia delivers 30M metric tons of first Uranium pellets for Indian reactors


*** NOTES ***

- Little in way of trading news during a holiday engulfed European session.

- Looking Forward to The weekend!!!!


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All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.




 

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Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



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