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Friday April 10, 2009 - 13:54:49 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (10 April 2009)

The euro came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3125 level and was capped around the US$ 1.3150 level.  Trading activity was muted on account of the Easter holiday weekend and liquidity will be reduced on Monday on account of the Easter Monday Bank Holiday.  Data released in France today saw February industrial production off 0.5% m/m.  Also, French March consumer prices were up 0.2% m/m and 0.3% y/y.  Additionally, france’s budget gap widened to €29.9 billion in February.  Most traders expect European Central Bank will continue to ease monetary policy, especially as ECB President Trichet yesterday indicated “one can imagine” interest rates will move lower.  Some dealers believe the ECB will begin a quantitative easing policy next month, probably by purchasing asset-backed securities in the market.  In U.S. news, traders are talking about the Obama administration’s plan to delay the findings of the bank stress tests.  U.S. equity markets rallied yesterday after it was reported Wells Fargo realized a US$ 3 billion profit in Q1.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3100 figure.


¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥100.25 level and was capped around the ¥100.50 level.  Bank of Japan Policy Board meeting minutes released overnight revealed policymakers discussed BoJ’s decision to increase its share of Japanese government bonds to ¥1.8 trillion per month.  Some policymakers noted economic growth expectations may need to be downwardly revised.  Some negative Japanese sentiment emerged overnight after it was learned Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group is forecasting a loss and will raise ¥800 billion in equity.  Data released in Japan overnight saw the M2 + CD money supply climb 2.2% in March while March bank lending growth was up 3.0%.  The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.54% to close at ¥8,964.11.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level.  The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥131.70 level and was capped around the ¥132.00 figure.  The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥146.75 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥86.50 level.  The Chinese yuan depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8343 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8340.  Data released in China today saw March exports off 17.1% y/y while imports were off 25.1% y/y taking the March trade surplus to US$ 18.56 billion.


The British pound came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.4620 level and was capped around the $1.4655 level.  Liquidity is significantly reduced on account of the long holiday weekend in the U.K.  When markets reopen next week, traders will again focus on the U.K.’s deep economic recession and look for any clues that Bank of England’s quantitative easing policies may not be as detailed or large as previously thought.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4515 level.  The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.8980 level and was supported around the ₤0.8955 level. 


The Swiss franc came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.1600 figure and was supported around the CHF 1.1565 level.  Swiss National Bank is expected to continue its policies to weaken the Swiss franc.  U.S. dollar bids are cited around the CHF 1.1355 level.  The euro and British pound came off vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the crosses tested bids around the CHF 1.5205 and CHF 1.6935 levels, respectively.


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