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Monday April 13, 2009 - 11:46:35 GMT
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Forex Blog - European market Update: Easter Monday holiday in Europe; Chinese PBoC advisor Fan: might take need additional 2-3 years to complete China's economic adjustment

Today 06:00am EST/10:00am GMT
European market Update: Easter Monday holiday in Europe; Chinese PBoC advisor Fan: might take need additional 2-3 years to complete China's economic adjustment


- European Markets closed for Easter Monday Holiday

- (RU) Russia Mar Producer prices M/M: 4.1% v 1.5%e; Y/Y: -2.8% v -5.4%e


- In equities, Russian business newspaper Kommersant reported that the City of Moscow does not plan to sell its 18% stake in Sibir Energy [SBE.UK] to TNK-BP. Over the weekend, London's Sunday Times reported that TNK-BP was preparing a £2B-3B offer for Sibir. || Express Scripts to acquire WellPoint's [WLP] NextRx subsidiaries for $4.68B.

- In speakers, PBoC Adviser Fan Gang said China's economy is not likely to reach bottom soon. He noted that it might need additional 2-3 years to complete economic adjustment . he saw major Western economies in early stages of recession, with growing impact to result on pressure on China's exports. || BoJ Dep Governor Yamaguchi commented that monetary policy alone cannot end the economic decline. || India's' PM Singh commented that its 2009 GDP growth slightly below 7% and blamed the global recession for revised outlook. He noted that the RBI (Central bank) had considerable room on monetary policy if necessary. || Former PBoC Advisor Li Yang says that China should purchase more short-term US debt. The Oriental Morning Post article quoted the former PBoC advisor that China should adjust the maturity structure, and keep asset and currency structures basically unchanged when investing its $1.95T foreign-exchange reserves. Li stated that China cannot use currency reserves to purchase gold because the metal was in oversupply. The price of the commodity might fall should the International Monetary Fund sell gold reserves to help the world's poorest countries || Russian Industrialists Union: Success of Russian anti-crisis package depends on stable Ruble currency and the Ruble within the 38 to 41 basket range was the 'best' range. Russia needs to keep radical fluctuations in its currency

- In currencies, the focus of Asian markets was stop-loss hunting on EUR/USD and USD/JPY pairs. EUR/USD probed above the 1.3200 level in listless trading while USD/JPY tested 100.70.

- In energy, Iran's OPEC Governor said further cuts in oil output are possible if demand continues to decline. || Shell [RDSA.UK] Confirms incident and fire at Nigeria's Bomu pipeline (150K bpd); Flows reportedly shut down. Separately, Nembe facility (130K bpd) in Nigeria was reportedly attacked || Shell [RDSA.UK] Reportedly in advanced talks with China on possible jv develop the Kirkuk oil field in northern Iraq. Shell had offered CNPC a 15% stake, but reportedly CNPC sought a higher participation around 20%. additionally Shell sought to win CNPC's approval for a production sharing contract for the Jinqiu gas field in China''s southwestern Sichuan province.

- In credit crisis news, China Securities Journal reported that China has been exploring stimulus actions to spark growth in domestic demand. || China Commerce Chamber commented that it saw the US Steel antidumping suit against China as "protectionism". On Apr. 8th, US steel industry filed an antidumping suit against China, covering $2.7B in imports

*** NOTES ***

- Data released over the weekend showing strong loan growth in China but cautious comments from PBoC advisor Fan deflated some momentum

- US Equity futures modestly lower after NY Times reported that GM was being told by US Treasury to prepare for "surgical" bankruptcy by June 1st

- Market participant finally will get a look into the finances of troubled US banks this week as earnings season gets under way, but recent accounting changes mean investors might not know what to make of them

- Looking Ahead:

- 10:00 (CA) Canada Q1 Business Outlook Future sales: No estimate versus -34.0 prior; BOC Senior loan Survey: No estimate versus 75.8 prior

- 11:00 (US) US to purchase back Notes and Bonds. Fed to purchase Treasuries due from March 2011 to April 2012 today (Note: Tuesday's operation would involve issues from September 2013 to February 2016)

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