Tuesday April 14, 2009 - 19:21:21 GMT
Share This Story
global-view.com - www.global-view.com
FX Blog- GVI Forex Month Ahead Forex Forecasts for April 15, 2009
Forex Forecast of Major Currency Pairs
The Global-View.com Month Ahead Currency Outlook is prepared weekly by the trading professionals at GVI Forex. For information on the GVI Forex Service Click Here
April 15, 2009
Equity bounce might be maturing. Dealers seem to realize that the economic recovery will take time.
Fed remains aggressive in attacking U.S. problems. USD constructive.
U.S. economy still soft. The lead time between stimulus and response will be lengthy, although some recovery signs are already evident.
USD still closely tied to stocks. Risk aversion play has eased.
Japan hard hit by sluggish export demand. Economy has fallen off a cliff. JPY bearish.
Bank of Japan to force funds into economy Quantitative Easing (QE). Fear of return to its old deflationary price pattern.
Bank of Japan ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Program) with overnight rate target +0.10%.
Nikkei correlates closely to USD/JPY.
Tokyo wants JPY weaker. Carry trades about to return.
Click on chart for two year history
ECB still well behind the curve. EUR negative.
East Europe concerns abound; could force E-Z bond issuance.
Lack of a common E-Z fiscal policy a problem.
April -25bp rate cut to 1.25% a major disappointment.
PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain) economic weakness worry with no weak fx option.
EUR wants to rally but markets are skeptical.
Click on chart for two year history
U.K. economy weak. Financial sector hit hard. GBP weight.
Bank of England aggressively easing. Quantitative Easing (QE) policy in place.
GBP vulnerable vs. the EUR. CHF-
Swiss economy slowing. Inflation below target. CHF vulnerable.
Swiss National Bank for all practical purposes has cut rates to zero.
SNB follows through on intervention threat (selling CHF vs. EUR).
CHF should trade weaker vs. the EUR.
Commodity Currencies CAD-
CAD not really a commodity currency, but heavily influenced by energy.
Canadian manufacturing and energy economy tied to the U.S. and weak.
Bank of Canada monetary policy easy. Quantitative Easing decision in motion. Inflation within BOC target range.
CAD trades mostly inversely with USD. Range trading
Australia and New Zealand dependent on commodity demand. Demand is down, so both suffer.
Both banks have already eased aggressively; additional stimulus in the pipeline.
Key inflation measures contained.
Even more than CAD, expect AUD and NZD to trade inversely with the USD.
John M. Bland is an author and co-founder of Global-View.com. Prior that, he was a senior dealer in a subsidiary of the Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previously, he was a member of the Chemical Bank corporate advisory service in NYC. He also worked in international liability management. John holds an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelor´┐Żs degree in International Economics from Berkeley.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."