A choppy and largely directionless
evening. This was probably a
reflection of mixed US earnings signals (Intel beat expectations, but guidance
was murky), and mixed US economic data releases (strong NY Fed survey, weak
industrial production, mixed CPI). The S&P500 spent the session in a lower
sideways range until the last hour, jumping to a +1.3% close; banks rallied
throughout to close +6.7%. The US dollar index benefited only slightly, while
commodities were generally subdued. Copper stood out, up 4.7% on another fall
in inventories. US 10 year treasuries rallied 2bp, while 3mth Libor nudged
another bp down to 1.11 (-22bp over the past month), reflecting easier funding
NZD did make a new low during Europe, to 0.5740, before bouncing to the current
0.5820. NZ interest rates (swaps market) have fallen 20bp during the past few
days, as investors raise their probabilities of a 50bp OCR cut on 30 April.
AUD rallied after the domestic close, from 0.7150
to the current 0.7280, with no obvious event to attribute the triggering of
stop-losses. AUD/NZD continued its domestic move above recent 1.24 resistance,
to 1.2570, consolidating in the past few hours at 1.2525; lower NZD rates this
week have supported the cross.
EUR first rallied to 1.33, then fell to 1.3170,
ending the European session little changed around 1.3230. ECB's Weber said the
policy rate won't be cut below 1.00%, but added any QE measures will be
announced in May. GBP rallied from 1.4870 to just above 1.50 on rumoured
US CPI fell 0.1% in March, due to a greater-than-expected fall in consumer
energy prices, as foreshadowed by yesterday's PPI. Annual CPI dropped to -0.4%
as base effects from last year's oil price spike washed through. Core inflation
was 0.17%, much as expected. This continues the low-but-positive-inflation
theme of recent months.
USNew York "EmpireState" survey improved to -14.7 in April, from -38.2 in March. This level of the headline
business conditions index has not been seen since Lehman Brothers collapsed.
The detail of the survey was even stronger than the headline. New orders and
shipments went from deeply negative in March to almost neutral in April.
However, the improvement in the employment question was more muted, suggesting
job losses will continue to run at a high pace into April. Overall the survey
suggests minor falls in factory production instead of the steep falls seen over
the past six months.
US industrial production fell a further 1.5% in
March, continuing its sharpest
slide since 1975. IP has now fallen 12.8% in a year. Capacity utilisation fell
to 69.3%, the lowest in the post-war era. This month's decline was lead by a
fall in machinery manufacturing, while vehicle manufacturing was up 1.5%.
Bundesbank president and ECB
Governing Council member Axel Weber
said cutting the main official interest rate below 1% would be disruptive to
interbank lending. Accordingly, our forecast of the terminal ECB rate is now 1%
UK March RICS house price balance improved
slightly to -73, meaning a
slightly less overwhelming majority of respondents expect prices to fall.
UK Feb DCLG (government) measure of annual house
price inflation fell to -12.3%,
from -11.5% last month.
We favour this downward move in NZD continuing
over the next few sessions, to sub-0.5700. Global risk appetite has stalled,
and will be mainly driven by earnings announcements during the week ahead. We
are watching global indicators, rather than anything local, for NZD directional
Release Last Forecast
US Mar Housing
Starts 583k 565k
Permits 564k 575k
Jobless Claims w/e 11/4 654k 660k
Philadelphia Fed Index β35.0 β32.0
Eur Mar CPI
(F) %yr 0.6%a 0.5%
Mar CPI -
Core %yr 1.7% 1.5%
Production β3.5% β2.5%
Manufacturing Shipments β5.4% β
β’ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (14 April)
β’ NZ Q1 CPI
Preview (8 April)
β’ NZ Q1 QSBO
Review (7 April)
β’ An update
on the mortgage market (1 April)
β’ NZ Q1
Employment Confidence Index (1 April)
β’ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (30 March)
β’ NZ Q4
Current Account Review (26 March)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Tue 31 July 2018 AA JP- Bank of Japan A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence Wed 1 Aug 2018 A Final Mfg PMIs AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls A 15:00 US- EIA Crude AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision Thu 2 Aug 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 3 Aug 2018 A Final Services PMIs AA 12:30 US- Employment A 12:30 US/CA- Trade
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.