User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday April 16, 2009 - 00:22:20 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Research - Morning Report

Morning Report Thursday 16 April 2009

 

News and views

A choppy and largely directionless evening. This was probably a reflection of mixed US earnings signals (Intel beat expectations, but guidance was murky), and mixed US economic data releases (strong NY Fed survey, weak industrial production, mixed CPI). The S&P500 spent the session in a lower sideways range until the last hour, jumping to a +1.3% close; banks rallied throughout to close +6.7%. The US dollar index benefited only slightly, while commodities were generally subdued. Copper stood out, up 4.7% on another fall in inventories. US 10 year treasuries rallied 2bp, while 3mth Libor nudged another bp down to 1.11 (-22bp over the past month), reflecting easier funding conditions.

NZD did make a new low during Europe, to 0.5740, before bouncing to the current 0.5820. NZ interest rates (swaps market) have fallen 20bp during the past few days, as investors raise their probabilities of a 50bp OCR cut on 30 April.

AUD rallied after the domestic close, from 0.7150 to the current 0.7280, with no obvious event to attribute the triggering of stop-losses. AUD/NZD continued its domestic move above recent 1.24 resistance, to 1.2570, consolidating in the past few hours at 1.2525; lower NZD rates this week have supported the cross.

EUR first rallied to 1.33, then fell to 1.3170, ending the European session little changed around 1.3230. ECB's Weber said the policy rate won't be cut below 1.00%, but added any QE measures will be announced in May. GBP rallied from 1.4870 to just above 1.50 on rumoured M&A flows.

US CPI fell 0.1% in March, due to a greater-than-expected fall in consumer energy prices, as foreshadowed by yesterday's PPI. Annual CPI dropped to -0.4% as base effects from last year's oil price spike washed through. Core inflation was 0.17%, much as expected. This continues the low-but-positive-inflation theme of recent months.

US New York "Empire State" survey improved to -14.7 in April, from -38.2 in March. This level of the headline business conditions index has not been seen since Lehman Brothers collapsed. The detail of the survey was even stronger than the headline. New orders and shipments went from deeply negative in March to almost neutral in April. However, the improvement in the employment question was more muted, suggesting job losses will continue to run at a high pace into April. Overall the survey suggests minor falls in factory production instead of the steep falls seen over the past six months.

US industrial production fell a further 1.5% in March, continuing its sharpest slide since 1975. IP has now fallen 12.8% in a year. Capacity utilisation fell to 69.3%, the lowest in the post-war era. This month's decline was lead by a fall in machinery manufacturing, while vehicle manufacturing was up 1.5%.

Bundesbank president and ECB Governing Council member Axel Weber said cutting the main official interest rate below 1% would be disruptive to interbank lending. Accordingly, our forecast of the terminal ECB rate is now 1% (previously 0.75%).

UK March RICS house price balance improved slightly to -73, meaning a slightly less overwhelming majority of respondents expect prices to fall.

UK Feb DCLG (government) measure of annual house price inflation fell to -12.3%, from -11.5% last month.

Outlook

We favour this downward move in NZD continuing over the next few sessions, to sub-0.5700. Global risk appetite has stalled, and will be mainly driven by earnings announcements during the week ahead. We are watching global indicators, rather than anything local, for NZD directional clues.

 

Events Today

Country Release Last Forecast

US Mar Housing Starts 583k 565k

Mar Housing Permits 564k 575k

Initial Jobless Claims w/e 11/4 654k 660k

Apr Philadelphia Fed Index –35.0 –32.0

Fedspeak: Lockhart

Eur Mar CPI (F) %yr 0.6%a 0.5%

Mar CPI - Core %yr 1.7% 1.5%

Feb Industrial Production –3.5% –2.5%

Can Feb Manufacturing Shipments –5.4% –

 

Latest Research Papers/Publications

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (14 April)

• NZ Q1 CPI Preview (8 April)

• NZ Q1 QSBO Review (7 April)

• An update on the mortgage market (1 April)

• NZ Q1 Employment Confidence Index (1 April)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (30 March)

• NZ Q4 Current Account Review (26 March)

These papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac

Institutional Bank’s website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)

 

 

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.




 

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 23 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105