Equities: European equity markets opened on a positive footing with
strong sentiment in the financial community (expecting JPM's numbers)
and strength in the heavy industrial names following a sector upgrade
out of Credit Suisse and continued comments regarding Chinese buying of
resource inputs. Poor performance in Q1 from Dassault Systems/STM/Intel
added weight to the information technology sector as shares of SAP
dragged the DAX30 into negative territory within 30 min of trading.
Markets across the board turned negative by 4:00EST, automotive names
joined the downward weight (specifically in France), while financials
paired opening gains. Markets recovered following strong bid to cover
results on both Spanish and French auction results, turning positive
past the 5:00EST hour. Financials led the recovery along with miners
and basic resource names (continuing from expectations of a recovery in
China following 'green shoots' commentary after a disappointing Q1 GDP
figure). Comments from Chinese PM Wen that the economy was better than
expected pushed the FTSE100 to its session highs. ||STM
Microelectronics [STM.FR] Board proposes to pay an annual cash dividend
of $0.12/share, implying a 66.7% cut in quarterly dividend to $0.03
from $0.09 prior. || SABMiller SAB.UK: Releases interim trading
statement: Financial results remain in line with expectations, economic
conditions deteriorated in the H2 and consumer demand has fallen in
most markets, particularly in Q4. FY Lager Volumes +2% y/y. || Roche
[ROG.SZ] Reports Q1 Rev CHF11.6B v CHF11.6Be, full-year outlook to be
updated to include impact of Genentech transaction and communicated
with half-year results. Pharmaceuticals Division CHF9.22B v CHF8.57B
y/y, Diagnostics Division CHF2.36B v CHF2.29B y/y. || Bunzl [BNZL.UK]
Provides Interim Management Statement: Reports Q3 Group revenue +18%
y/y, underlying rev down marginally due to the impact of deteriorating
macroeconomic conditions across the international markets in which the
Company operates. ||
- Speakers: Chinese PM Wen Jiabao
commented that China's economy was in better shape than expected and
that government actions will produce results. However the PM warned
that China still faces large pressure on the unemployment front and
cautioned about "blind optimism" on any economic recovery. Govt should
not underestimate duration of crisis. Wen also reiterated that china
would continue with its "moderate loose" monetary policy and the
'pro-active' fiscal policy. It would fully implement stimulus package
and accelerate government-led investment|| China's Trade Min Chen
commented that China's export slump was easing but no fundamental
change seen in its weak external demand. It sought a 'positive change
in trade' and studying policies to expand foreign investment. ||
Australian Treasurer Swan: Expects government economic and revenue
forecasts are to be 'substantially worse' in the May budget. Just note
back in early Feb, the Aussy Gov't forecasted a 2008-09 budget deficit
of A$22.5B which was revised lower from a surplus of A$5.4B. || China
Foreign Ministry's Jiang Yu commented that China would continue to push
for reform on its Yuan exchange rate with its objective is to keep the
currency at a reasonable level. She reiterated the view that China FX
reserves management sought both security of the investment and
liquidity in its analysis. || BoE Designate Miles commented that
perhaps the worst of UK recession might have already passed. He noted
that the early signs Quantitative Easing (QE) as improving bank lending
and that QE would have 'significant' impact on demand || Indian MoF
Official commented that India had not asked th IMF to sell its gold
reserves. This contrasts earlier press speculation. (However, back on
Apr 2nd: Group of 20 nations had decided IMF would sell a portion of
its gold reserve to help fund poorer nations). || HKMA's Yam stated
that he expected CNY to be more widely accepted with time. He added
that HK could serve as 'testing ground' for liberalization of CNY ||
Italian employer group note that perhaps the worst was over in economic
- In Currencies: Risk aversion theme helping
USD and JPY firm in early European trading. Dealers noting that the
recent Fed Beige book and mixed Chinese data suggest that because
things have stopped â€śgetting worseâ€ť does not automatically suggest that
the economic environment would improve. thus the question at this time
is all about the "shape" of any potential recovery... with letters
representing sentiment "V" , "U" "W" and the dreaded "L". China's PM
Wen cautioned about holding "blind optimism" in regards to any economic
recovery and that Govt should not underestimate duration of crisis.
- The Euro was under some broad pressure throughout the European
morning as dealers have doubts growing regarding the EU economic
future. One head dealer noted that it will take some effort for EUR/USD
to break below the 1.3070 level (Pre FED quantitative easing level from
Mar 18th), but momentum could greatly accelerate if and when this level
can be breeched. EUR/JPY cross below the 130 level during the
mid-European morning and EUR/GBP drifted lower.
- The GBP/USD
pair again tested above the 1.50 handle and again encountered some
medium term profit-taking endure for the second straight session.
Fixed income: Bunds have been under pressure this morning amidst a
flood of European supply with Spain selling just over â‚¬4B in 10 and 15y
Bonos, and France selling more than â‚¬7B in 2011 to 2014 BTAN's and
OAT's. Meanwhile in the UK, the DMO sold ÂŁ4B in a tap of the 2.25% 2014
Gilt. The auction was covered an impressive 2.11 times, with a yield
tail of less than 2bps significantly below the multi year high of
almost 10bps last time around. Treasuries have held up better than
their European peers with no supply and the Fed looking to purchase a
range of TIPS later in the session. 3M euribor fixed at a new record
low of 1.41%, â‚¬ swap spreads are narrower across the curve ,with 10ys
notably outperforming, down by over 2.5bps
Energy: Analysts at Macquarie cut their WTI 2009 price guidance to
$51.30 from $60 previous. They also cut its 2010 guidance to $71 from
$78 previous ||
*** NOTES ***
- More and
more government officials and central bankers are uttering that perhaps
the 'worst' of the global recession is behind us. â€śWhat shape will the
global recovery take?â€ť
- That seems to be the question
following the recent Fed Beige book and mixed Chinese data. However,
The European session participants came in thinking that Because things
have stopped getting worse does not mean they would get better .
- RealtyTrac: US March Foreclosures at 341.2K, which was up 17% m/m and +46% y/y. The data was the highest on record.
- Fed's Beige Book: US economy still weak.
- China GDP data basically met the low end of expectations. The 6.1% GDP reading was the slowest growth in 10 years.
South Korea revised March exports. South Korea's President Lee
commented that its domestic economy was likely passing â€śhalfway pointâ€ť
of downward economic cycle.
- Looking Ahead: JPM earnings
- 8:00 (BR) Brazil Feb Retail Sales M/M: 1.0% expected v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.0% v 4.0% expected v 6.0% prior
- 8:30 (US) March Housing Starts (last 583K), March Building Permits (last 564K),
- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 660K expected versus 654K prior; Continuing Claims: 5.893Me versus 5.84M prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Feb Manufacturing shipments M/M: 2.0% expected v -5.4% prior
- 9:00 (FR) France to sell â‚¬1.5B inflation linked OAT's and up to â‚¬8B in 2011 -2014 BTAN's
- 10:00 (US) April Philadelphia Fed (last -35)
- 10:30 (US) Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Fed to buy back 01/15/10 - 04/15/32 TIPS
-12:00 (TU) Turkey Base Rate Announcement: 50bps cut to 10.00% expected
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