Earnings help equities. JP Morgan's results were about 30% better than
expected, helping the S&P500 close up 1.6%. Google also beat expectations
in after-market news. US data was mixed, with weak housing and jobless reports
neutralised by a stronger Philadelphia Fed survey. Copper fell 1.2% in a
reaction to China's lacklustre GDP report yesterday, but oil
decoupled to fall 1.4%. US 10yr treasuries followed equities' lead, the
yield rising 7bp, while subsiding funding pressures pushed 3mth Libor another
bp lower to 1.11%. US bank stress test results will be released on 4 May,
according to CNBC.
NZD broke minor support at 0.5750 and ranged
between 0.5680 and 0.5765 overnight. NZ PM Key spoke from China saying Q1 GDP may be worse than -0.9%.
Yesterday's OECD report on NZ reiterated the need for lower policy interest
AUD zig-zagged down after the domestic close, from
0.7250 to 0.7140, and bounced off that support level to settle around 0.7200
during early NZ. Treasurer Swan warned of a horror budget in an overnight
article. AUD/NZD consolidated in a higher 1.2560 to 1.2685 range.
EUR bounced between 1.3130 and 1.3230, data
releases containing no surprises. GBP dipped to 1.4845, but recovered to
1.4930, BoE's Miles saying the worst of the UK recession may be over. USD/JPY dipped to
98.50, recovering to the previous day's close at 98.30.
US housing starts fell 11% after a
17% jump in Feb, with both
moves caused by volatility in the multiples component. Total starts did remain
above the January level, and single-family units have been stable, suggesting
that the new-home construction industry has at least stabilised, but hopes of
recovery have been quashed. Likewise, housing permits fell 9%, setting a new
low, although single-family permits remained above the January level.
US April Philadelphia Fed factory
survey improved to -24.4 from
-35, affirming the less-pessimistic tone set by yesterday's NY Fed survey. Like
the NY survey, the improvement was most pronounced in new orders, although for Philadelphia these remain firmly in contractionary
territory. Six-month-ahead confidence was vastly improved. However, the
employment component remains deeply negative, suggesting savage job
losses have a long way to run, even if the production slump is easing a little.
US initial jobless claims fell 53k to 610k in the week ended April 11, although the number
should be treated with caution as that week was affected by Good Friday. In
the week ending April 4, continuing jobless claims rose 172k to 6m.
Euroland February inflation was
confirmed at 0.6% yr (unrevised
from the flash estimate). Base effects due to the price of oil first rising
then falling last year are likely cause Eurozone headline annual inflation to
fall temporarily below zero from May this year. Core inflation edged down
to 1.5% yr, its lowest since 2006. Monthly headline inflation rose 0.4%.
Eurozone February industrial
production fell a further 2.3%,
led by a 4.3% decline in production of consumer durables (mostly cars). Capital
goods production fell 3%, after a 7% decline in January. Europe's factory slump is showing no sign of abating
in the same fashion as the US.
Canadian Feb manufacturing shipments
rose 2.2% after swooning 5.4%
NZD reached 0.57 support last night, that area
proving sticky. Global risk sentiment was moderately positive overnight, but is
starting to looked quite stretched. Accordingly, we maintain our negative NZD
bias today, and expect to see a move towards 0.5600. Q1 CPI today is expected
to be 3.0% yoy, and shouldn't surprise markets.
Release Last Forecast
NZ Q1 CPI
%qtr β0.5% 0.3%
Prices 0.2% β
Export Price Index %qtr 15.9% β7.0%
Price Index %qtr 10.8% β0.3%
US Apr Uni Mich Consumer
Confid (Prelim) 57.3 58.5
Tertiary Index 0.4% 0.2%
Confidence 27.6 30.0
Trade Balance s.a. β5.5 β4.9
Construction Output s.a. 1.3% β2.5%
Can Mar CPI
Mar CPI Boc
Core %yr 1.9% β
β’ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (14 April)
β’ NZ Q1 CPI
Preview (8 April)
β’ NZ Q1 QSBO
Review (7 April)
β’ An update
on the mortgage market (1 April)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
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Mon 12 Mar 2018 A 17:00 US- 3-Yr Auction Tue 13 Mar 2018 A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey AA 12:30 US- CPI A 17:00 US- 10-Yr Auction Wed 14 Feb 2018 AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 17:00 US- 30-Yr Auction Thu 15 Mar 2018 A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless A 12:30 US- Philly Fed, Empire PMI A 12:15 US- Industrial Production Fri 16 Mar 2018 A 10:00 EZ- final HICP A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits A 14:00 US- prelim Univ of Mich
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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