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Sunday April 19, 2009 - 22:07:24 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz

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Forex Research - Morning Report

Morning Report Monday 20 April 2009

 

News and views

Risk markets recorded modest gains on better earnings results - GE beat expectations (0.26 vs 0.21), as did Citigroup (-0.18 vs -0.32) - as well as improved US consumer sentiment. The S&P500 rose 0.5% (banks +4.9%), oil +0.7%, copper +0.9%, and risk aversion barometer VIX improved to 34. US 3mth Libor also improved 1bp to 1.10%. Better sentiment hurt US 10yr treasuries, up 12bp, with similar moves in Bunds and Gilts. The US dollar currency, though, decoupled from risk, up 0.9%. In more peripheral news, Moody's negative outlook for Ireland's was a catch-up to S&P's AA- rating; the Fed's Bernanke commented on why credit products should be regulated; and the Californian unemployment rate rose from 10.6% to 11.2% in March.

After NZD closed in NZ at 0.5710, cross-selling (versus AUD, JPY, GBP) saw it break down to 0.5650, with a rebound to 0.5695 in the last hour of NY trading. Friday's CPI report was bang on expectations at 3.0% yoy, and therefore had no market impact. It does, however, maintain the case for a 50bp OCR cut on 30 April.

AUD closed the domestic session at 0.7205, and then ranged around that level all night, closing in NY at the upper end, 0.7225. AUD/NZD broke convincingly through 1.26 to 1.2760, and opens in NZ at 1.2745 (via legs).

EUR was weak throughout the evening, from the 1.3100 area to 1.3020, ECB Trichet's speech in Tokyo not adding clarity, and Germany's Economic Ministry saying Q1 2009 GDP would be weaker than Q4 2008. JPY consolidated between 98.70 and 99.50.

US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment rose to 61.9, its highest since last September. Confidence about current conditions rose to 66.6, and confidence about the economic outlook rose to 58.9. No doubt the 28% rally in share market prices since March 9, promises of fiscal stimulus and the improvement in the overall tone of economic news have outweighed the weak jobs market and conspired to lift the overall consumer mood. Inflation expectations rose a little, remaining within a range that will please the Fed.

Japanese data: The tertiary industry index reported a softening of services sector conditions during February, with the index falling by 0.8%, as expected. That followed a 0.4% rise in January.  Consumer confidence, which is near an all-time low, edged higher to 29.6 in March, up from 27.6 in February. That was also in line with the market forecast of 30.0.

Eurozone trade deficit was modestly negative at -EUR4.0bn. Compared to a year ago, both imports and exports are down by around 25%, testament to the collapse in global trade. Eurozone construction output fell 1.8% in February.

Canadian CPI inflation rose only 0.2% m/m. The shelter component fell 0.5%, associated with the implosion of Canada's housing market. Annual inflation is down to 1.2% on falling petrol prices. Core inflation rose 0.3% m/m, 2% y/y, with the downside limited by the low exchange rate.

 

Outlook

Momentum in NZD remains downwards, and a test of 0.5530 support is next on the cards, a break of which opens up 0.5450. Domestic data releases this week are lightweight, so that US equities and the EUR will be the best guides for daily direction.

 

Upcoming Events

Date Country Release Last Forecast

20 Apr Aus Q1 PPI %qtr 1.3% 0.3%

US Mar Leading Indicators %mth –0.4% –0.2%

UK Apr Rightmove House Prices %yr –9.0% –

21 Apr NZ Mar External Migration ann. 6,160 6,800

Aus Mar Merchandise Imports AUDbn 16.6 –

Apr RBA Board Meeting Minutes

RBA Governor Stevens’ Speech

Ger Apr ZEW Analysts’ Survey –3.5 –5.0

UK Mar CPI %yr 3.2% 3.0%

Can BoC Rate 0.50% 0.25%

 

Latest Research Papers/Publications

• NZ Q1 CPI Review (17 April)

• The money tree (17 April)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (14 April)

• NZ Q1 CPI Preview (8 April)

• NZ Q1 QSBO Review (7 April)

• An update on the mortgage market (1 April)

• NZ Q1 Employment Confidence Index (1 April)

These papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac

Institutional Bank’s website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)

 

 

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.



 

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