Risk markets recorded modest gains on better earnings results - GE beat
expectations (0.26 vs 0.21), as did Citigroup (-0.18 vs -0.32) - as well as
improved US consumer sentiment. The S&P500 rose 0.5%
(banks +4.9%), oil +0.7%, copper +0.9%, and risk aversion barometer VIX
improved to 34. US 3mth Libor also improved 1bp to 1.10%. Better sentiment hurt
US 10yr treasuries, up 12bp, with similar moves in Bunds and Gilts. The US
dollar currency, though, decoupled from risk, up 0.9%. In more peripheral news,
Moody's negative outlook for Ireland's was a catch-up to S&P's AA- rating;
the Fed's Bernanke commented on why credit products should be regulated; and
the Californian unemployment rate rose from 10.6% to 11.2% in March.
After NZD closed in NZ at
0.5710, cross-selling (versus AUD, JPY, GBP) saw it break down to 0.5650, with
a rebound to 0.5695 in the last hour of NY trading. Friday's CPI report was
bang on expectations at 3.0% yoy, and therefore had no market impact. It does,
however, maintain the case for a 50bp OCR cut on 30 April.
AUD closed the domestic session at 0.7205, and then
ranged around that level all night, closing in NY at the upper end, 0.7225.
AUD/NZD broke convincingly through 1.26 to 1.2760, and opens in NZ at 1.2745
EUR was weak throughout the evening, from the
1.3100 area to 1.3020, ECB Trichet's speech in Tokyo not adding clarity, and Germany's Economic Ministry saying Q1 2009 GDP would be
weaker than Q4 2008. JPY consolidated between 98.70 and 99.50.
US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment rose to 61.9, its highest since last September. Confidence about current
conditions rose to 66.6, and confidence about the economic outlook rose to
58.9. No doubt the 28% rally in share market prices since March 9, promises of
fiscal stimulus and the improvement in the overall tone of economic news have
outweighed the weak jobs market and conspired to lift the overall consumer
mood. Inflation expectations rose a little, remaining within a range that will
please the Fed.
Japanese data: The tertiary industry index reported a
softening of services sector conditions during February, with the index falling
by 0.8%, as expected. That followed a 0.4% rise in January. Consumer
confidence, which is near an all-time low, edged higher to 29.6 in March, up
from 27.6 in February. That was also in line with the market forecast of 30.0.
Eurozone trade deficit was modestly
negative at -EUR4.0bn. Compared
to a year ago, both imports and exports are down by around 25%, testament to
the collapse in global trade. Eurozone construction output fell 1.8% in
Canadian CPI inflation rose only
0.2% m/m. The shelter component
fell 0.5%, associated with the implosion of Canada's housing market. Annual inflation is down to
1.2% on falling petrol prices. Core inflation rose 0.3% m/m, 2% y/y, with the
downside limited by the low exchange rate.
Momentum in NZD remains downwards, and a test of
0.5530 support is next on the cards, a break of which opens up 0.5450. Domestic
data releases this week are lightweight, so that US equities and the EUR will
be the best guides for daily direction.
Country Release Last Forecast
20 Apr Aus
Q1 PPI %qtr 1.3% 0.3%
US Mar Leading
Indicators %mth â€“0.4% â€“0.2%
Rightmove House Prices %yr â€“9.0% â€“
21 Apr NZ
Mar External Migration ann. 6,160 6,800
Merchandise Imports AUDbn 16.6 â€“
Board Meeting Minutes
Ger Apr ZEW
Analystsâ€™ Survey â€“3.5 â€“5.0
UK Mar CPI %yr
Can BoC Rate
â€¢ NZ Q1 CPI
Review (17 April)
â€¢ The money
tree (17 April)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (14 April)
â€¢ NZ Q1 CPI
Preview (8 April)
â€¢ NZ Q1 QSBO
Review (7 April)
â€¢ An update
on the mortgage market (1 April)
â€¢ NZ Q1
Employment Confidence Index (1 April)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.