Risk markets recorded modest gains on better earnings results - GE beat
expectations (0.26 vs 0.21), as did Citigroup (-0.18 vs -0.32) - as well as
improved US consumer sentiment. The S&P500 rose 0.5%
(banks +4.9%), oil +0.7%, copper +0.9%, and risk aversion barometer VIX
improved to 34. US 3mth Libor also improved 1bp to 1.10%. Better sentiment hurt
US 10yr treasuries, up 12bp, with similar moves in Bunds and Gilts. The US
dollar currency, though, decoupled from risk, up 0.9%. In more peripheral news,
Moody's negative outlook for Ireland's was a catch-up to S&P's AA- rating;
the Fed's Bernanke commented on why credit products should be regulated; and
the Californian unemployment rate rose from 10.6% to 11.2% in March.
After NZD closed in NZ at
0.5710, cross-selling (versus AUD, JPY, GBP) saw it break down to 0.5650, with
a rebound to 0.5695 in the last hour of NY trading. Friday's CPI report was
bang on expectations at 3.0% yoy, and therefore had no market impact. It does,
however, maintain the case for a 50bp OCR cut on 30 April.
AUD closed the domestic session at 0.7205, and then
ranged around that level all night, closing in NY at the upper end, 0.7225.
AUD/NZD broke convincingly through 1.26 to 1.2760, and opens in NZ at 1.2745
EUR was weak throughout the evening, from the
1.3100 area to 1.3020, ECB Trichet's speech in Tokyo not adding clarity, and Germany's Economic Ministry saying Q1 2009 GDP would be
weaker than Q4 2008. JPY consolidated between 98.70 and 99.50.
US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment rose to 61.9, its highest since last September. Confidence about current
conditions rose to 66.6, and confidence about the economic outlook rose to
58.9. No doubt the 28% rally in share market prices since March 9, promises of
fiscal stimulus and the improvement in the overall tone of economic news have
outweighed the weak jobs market and conspired to lift the overall consumer
mood. Inflation expectations rose a little, remaining within a range that will
please the Fed.
Japanese data: The tertiary industry index reported a
softening of services sector conditions during February, with the index falling
by 0.8%, as expected. That followed a 0.4% rise in January. Consumer
confidence, which is near an all-time low, edged higher to 29.6 in March, up
from 27.6 in February. That was also in line with the market forecast of 30.0.
Eurozone trade deficit was modestly
negative at -EUR4.0bn. Compared
to a year ago, both imports and exports are down by around 25%, testament to
the collapse in global trade. Eurozone construction output fell 1.8% in
Canadian CPI inflation rose only
0.2% m/m. The shelter component
fell 0.5%, associated with the implosion of Canada's housing market. Annual inflation is down to
1.2% on falling petrol prices. Core inflation rose 0.3% m/m, 2% y/y, with the
downside limited by the low exchange rate.
Momentum in NZD remains downwards, and a test of
0.5530 support is next on the cards, a break of which opens up 0.5450. Domestic
data releases this week are lightweight, so that US equities and the EUR will
be the best guides for daily direction.
Country Release Last Forecast
20 Apr Aus
Q1 PPI %qtr 1.3% 0.3%
US Mar Leading
Indicators %mth â€“0.4% â€“0.2%
Rightmove House Prices %yr â€“9.0% â€“
21 Apr NZ
Mar External Migration ann. 6,160 6,800
Merchandise Imports AUDbn 16.6 â€“
Board Meeting Minutes
Ger Apr ZEW
Analystsâ€™ Survey â€“3.5 â€“5.0
UK Mar CPI %yr
Can BoC Rate
â€¢ NZ Q1 CPI
Review (17 April)
â€¢ The money
tree (17 April)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (14 April)
â€¢ NZ Q1 CPI
Preview (8 April)
â€¢ NZ Q1 QSBO
Review (7 April)
â€¢ An update
on the mortgage market (1 April)
â€¢ NZ Q1
Employment Confidence Index (1 April)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
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