- Observers are wondering whether the financials-driven rally has hit a wall
this morning as equity markets sink despite Bank of America's impressive Q1
earnings performance. Various commentators have offered cautious comments this
morning, with Fed Chairman Bernanke noting that the global economy is still
facing usual turbulence and the Obama Administration's Larry Summers saying
that "substantial risks" remain in the economic recovery process. In
a sign of extreme skittishness, dodgy dealer chatter circulating before the
bell saying that an unknown blog had obtained published results of the stress
tests actually prompted a rebuttal from the Treasury. A Treasury spokesperson
said the results of the testing aren't in yet, even though the integrity of
this blog source was severely doubtful. Concern over the global outlook weighed
on NYMEX crude, with the front-month contract down nearly $4/barrel, around
- Treasury prices are rallying on risk aversion bids pushing the 10-year yield
back below 2.85%. GILT prices surged following the BOE's latest reverse auction
results which showed a paltry bid-to-cover ratio of 1.83 times. Two-year swap
spreads in the US moved out to their widest level in a month while EuroDollar
futures were also under some pressure early as concerns swirled ahead of the
stress test details scheduled for release on Friday.
- Bank of America
improved on the performances from competitors JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Citi
last week, reporting Q1 earnings that were an order of magnitude better than
expected and blowing out revenue targets by nearly $9B. But analysts are
focusing on other aspects of the bank's performance, such as its hefty $13.4B
provision for credit losses, rising net charge offs and a big gain in
non-performing assets. And on the conference call CEO Lewis was hardly
positive, noting that credit is bad and credit conditions are expected to get
worse. Lewis warned the bank's reserves will keep building over next few
quarters, an expensive choice in the short term that will pay long term
results. Note that overnight Citi confirmed it is closing bidding for its Nikko
Cordial unit today, with bids in from Mitsubishi, Mizuhi and SMFG. Teh sale of
Nikko Cordial includes part of Nikko Citigroup, but Nikko Asset Management is
not part of the transaction. Overnight the WSJ reported that lending from top US
banks has continued to decline, with February loan and refinancing activity
from the largest TARP recipients down around 23% from October levels. Shares of
Citi and BoA are down 14% in early trading.
It's been a big morning for M&A, with a couple of headline deals moving
markets. Oracle surprised observers (and likely blindsided IBM) by offering
$9.50/shr in cash for Sun Microsystems in a deal valued at $7.4B. Oracle
expects the acquisition to be accretive in the first full year after closing;
both boards have unanimously approved the transaction and the deal is
anticipated to close this summer. The pharma tie-up dance continued, with
GlaxoSmithKline buying the privately-held Stiefel Labs for $3.6B in cash, debt
and other payouts. Siefel, which is partially owned by the Blackstone Group,
had been reportedly pursued by several other major drug companies such as Johnson
& Johnson and Novartis. The biggest deal
of the day is a family affair, with PepsiCo offering to buy up its bottling
partners Pepsi Bottling Group and PepsiAmericas, for $29.50/shr and $23.27/shr,
respectively. The two deals, which would give PepsiCo control of 80% of its
North American distribution volume, are worth a total of around $9B. Also note
that Chesapeake Utilities signed an all-stock deal to pick up Florida Public
Utilities for $12.20/shr.
- In other earnings news, PepsiCo beat Q1 earnings estimates and reaffirmed its
full-year forecast. The company noted that carbonated drink sales improved on a
sequential basis and expects operating profits to improve in the second half of
2009. Oil services major Halliburton offer solid Q1 performance, a bit ahead on
the bottom line and a bit behind the Street on revenue. Executives warned it
remains unclear when the continuing decline in industry activity will bottom
out. Toymaker Hasbro was also in line with EPS estimates and a bit behind on revenue,
but noted that it is on track to grow both in the rest of the year.
- In currency trading, risk aversion came on strong in the New
York session as the USD and JPY firmed against their
respective majors, with the EUR/USD finally breaking through the 1.2950 support
level seen earlier today to test below 1.29. The EUR/JPY cross was off over two
big figures at 127.00, while GBP/JPY was off 400 pips at 142.80 by the mid-New
York morning. The risk aversion theme was set in
motion by a interview with IMF Director Strauss-Kahn published in German
newspaper Handelsblatt. Strauss-Kahn said the global growth forecast due from
the IMF later this week would be worse than the 0.5% contraction seen in the
prior report. The dealer chatter regarding the spurious bank stress test blog
posting didn't help either. USD/CAD was around 1.2360 as a result of lower
energy prices. AUD/USD is hovering above the 0.70 area. Note that GBP continued
to be hampered by its upcoming budget release on Wednesday; GBP/USD is around 1.45.
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
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seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
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