- Investors seem to have halted yesterday's big slide and are working hard to
push US equity indices higher in mid-day trading after opening lower. Mixed
earnings from regional banks and plenty of caution in the face of decent Q1
results from the likes of Caterpillar and United Technologies had things lower
early on, however. Fed's Kohn offered some hope last night, noting that he
expects a modest recovery, with chance of a strong one, and sees GDP
stabilizing later this year. Treasury Secretary Geithner is testifying before
Congress, defending the TARP and his department's handling of the financial
bailout, indicating that the health of individual banks will not be the sole
criterion for whether firms can repay TARP funds. This comes the morning after
the TARP Watchdog called for better oversight of the program. Meanwhile, Fed
Governor Hoenig repeated that firms that are too big to fail must be allowed to
- US Treasury prices have moved lower as stocks have rebounded. The benchmark
yield rallied some 8+ basis points from session lows back to 2.88%. Selling
only intensified after the NY Fed bought $7B in 2016-19 coupons. In a reversal
from yesterday's trade, GILT futures sold off following the latest reverse auction
results from the BOE.
- Many of the leading second-tier financial firms and regional banks have
reported earnings. State Street and BlackRock reported solid first quarter
results, although State Street
missed revenue targets by around 10%. Note that assets under management at both
firms fell on a q/q basis. State Street's CEO said he would like to pay back
TARP funding, and noted that funds are flowing from prime brokers to
independent carriers. BlackRock's CEO stated that more firms will be getting
involved with the PPIP program than is currently anticipated. US Bankcorp
reported a bit ahead of targets, with its ROE and ROA up strongly on a y/y
basis, in line with the tier-1 firms. USB's CEO also said he hopes to arrange a
TARP repayment deal with the government soon. Zions Bancorp's quarterly loss
was much smaller than expected, while KeyCorp's loss was considerably larger
than anticipated. KEY also steeply cut its dividend. Regions Financial was in
the black (ex items) and revenue was strong, although returns on equity and
assets were down sharply. Bank of New York missed earnings and revenue
expectations, and cut its dividend. All of these names deep in the red in early
trading, with the exception of USB, which is up around 8%. ZION
is down 25%.
- Tech titans IBM and Texas Instruments earned more than expected in Q1,
although IBM's top line lagged the Street by a bit. TXN's buidance for next
quarter is bullish, with earnings seen as much as ten times estimates at the
top end of its range, while IBM simply reiterated its 2009 forecast, although
Big Blue's CFO did note that the firm is more confident on outlook than it was
a quarter ago. Interestingly, TXN's CEO does not believe sales will really grow
in 2009 but believes that the firm can expand its market share. IBM is around
even, while TXN has plummeted from +5% at the open to -4% mid morning.
Healthcare giant UnitedHealth had excellent earnings and reaffirmed its 2009
outlook. Dow component Merck & Co. came in below par, thanks to FX losses
and Fosamax going off patent. Merck merger partner Schering-Plough said the
tie-up is on track, and reported solid first quarter results. All three of
these healthcare/pharma names are down around 3-5%. -
-Several leading industrial names reported, including Dow majors United
Technologies and Caterpillar. UTX's Q1 earnings exceeded expectations, while
revenue was just a hair short of targets. The conglomerate also narrowed its
2009 EPS forecast. Cat blew out estimates but issue extremely cautious guidance
for the year, reducing its outlook and noting that the US
"missed an opportunity" with its "disappointing" stimulus
plan. Lockheed Martin reported more or less in line with expectations and
reiterated its full year guidance. LMT's CFO said the 2010 Pentagon budget
would have no affect on its guidance. Dow member DuPont met EPS targets,
although it missed on the top line by nearly $1B. Autoparts suppliers Autoliv
and Johnson Controls both met their dismal loss expectations and missed revenue
expectations somewhat. ALV's guidance was catastrophic, projecting sales next
quarter that were up to 45% below expectations, while JCI optimistically
projected plenty of earnings accretion from restructuring plans.
- In currencies, dealers continue to see consolidation continuing after some
big moves. The greenback remains a softer against the European pairs, with a
better-than-expected ZEW survey helping the EUR/USD to move back toward the
1.30 area. But the 1.2950 option expiration point continues to act like a
magnet ahead of numerous expirations due this week, while weak Irish bond
auction results tempered the euro's upside momentum. Dealers are noting that Ireland's
2018 auction had a bid-to-cover of only 1.1x. Some risk aversion seeping back
into the sentiment following US earnings this morning, many of which suggested
that stiff headwinds remain when it comes to escaping the recession. Vague
chatter circulated of a European retail bank in trouble, helping spot gold move
to session highs; dealers were noting that there was a German meeting today
about that country's good bank/bad bank program.
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Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
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Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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