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Tuesday April 21, 2009 - 21:45:04 GMT
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Forex Research - Morning Report

Morning Report Wednesday 22 April 2009


News and views

Risk appetite recovers on Geithner testimony.  The US dollar found support in the London morning as risk aversion was reinforced by the IMF's prediction that global credit losses would reach $4.1 trillion by end-2010, but DXY fell -0.3% by late NY and risk currencies rallied in New York, with help from Treasury Sec Geithner. He testified that the "vast majority" of US banks have more capital than needed and said he sees signs of "thawing" in credit markets. Such sentiment helped US equities rally steeply from early losses, SPX closing +2.1%, including a 10% rise for the banks index.

NZD/USD joined in the risk recovery, from 0.5540 to 0.5640. This left AUD/NZD chopping in the low 1.26s.

AUD/USD bounced from a London low of 0.6976 to burst above 0.7100 and retained these gains into early Welly/Syd.

EUR/USD gyrated only modestly higher, rebuffed above 1.2980 then easing to 1.2955. Not surprisingly the safe haven yen was sold, USD/JPY squeezing from under 98.00 in early London to 98.80. The central banks of Sweden and Canada shaved their benchmark rates to 0.50% and 0.25% respectively. USD/CAD rallied to just above 1.2500 but then retreated to the 1.2350 area. BoC's plans for QE are due Thursday. Treasuries sold off, the 10 year yield bouncing from 2.78% to 2.90% as equities rallied and there was some disappointment over the scale of Fed purchases ($7.0bn).

No US data to report.

German ZEW analyst sentiment rises from -3.5 to 13.0 in April. The current index slipped from -89.4 to -91.6, reflecting very weak economic data, but expectations picked up to a 2 year high, probably reflecting the stronger stock market and optimism that the full force of monetary, fiscal, G20 and other policy measures will ultimately  restore confidence in financial markets and the broader economy.

UK RPI inflation falls below 0% yr for first time in 50 years. The combination of base effects (last year's energy price gains dropping out of the calculation) and falling mortgage rates pulled the RPI down from 0% to -0.4% yr in March. However the preferred CPI inflation measure, which does not include mortgage costs, eased from 3.2% yr to 2.9% yr.

Swedish Riksbank cuts rates 50bp to 0.50%, and suggests that policy may not be eased further ("further reductions will have relatively small effects on the economy" - Governor Ingves).

Bank of Canada cuts 25bp to 0.25%, and commits to hold rates there for a year. We expected the cut, but the BoC went one step further by committing to remain on hold until mid 2010, conditional on the inflation outlook. This extra step was made in an attempt to hold longer term rates down, given that the BoC has said it cannot cut its policy rate any further. The BoC expects Canadian GDP to shrink 3% this year and core inflation to remain below target for more than two years. An announcement re quantitative easing is expected Thursday when the BoC will publish its next Monetary Policy Report.

Canadian wholesale sales fell 0.7% in Feb, their fifth consecutive decline, consistent with the economy entering recession.



This move downwards has built momentum during the past few sessions, with the next target 0.5450. Should global equities continue to soften this week, 0.5200 is foreseeable. This morning's immigration data is expected to show strength from returning expatriates, but is unlikely to impact the markets.


Events Today

Country Release Last Forecast

Aus Q1 Headline CPI %qtr –0.3% 0.9%

Q1 Avg RBA Underlying CPI %qtr 0.7% 0.9%

US Feb FHFA House Prices %yr 1.7% –0.7%

Jpn Mar Merchandise Trade Balance ¥bn 43.3 -100

UK BoE Minutes of April Meeting

Mar Claimant Count Change ‘000 138 125

Feb ILO Unemployment Rate (3 Mths) 6.5% 6.9%

Feb Avg Earns Inc Bonus 3m/3m yr ago % 1.8% 1.2%

Mar PSNCR £bn 4.4 18.0

Mar Money Supply M4 %yr 18.7% 19.9%

Budget Statement

Can Mar Leading Indicators %mth –1.1% –0.9%


Latest Research Papers/Publications

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (14 April)

• NZ Q1 CPI Review (17 April)

• The money tree (17 April)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (14 April)

• NZ Q1 CPI Preview (8 April)

These papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac

Institutional Bank’s website (


Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.



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