Thursday January 13, 2005 - 01:38:42 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 13th January 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.1691 ... 1.1712 ... 1.1733 ... 1.1756
Support....: 1.1660 ... 1.1641 ... 1.1604 ... 1.1584
Cautiously we look for 1.1691-1.1712 to hold and for losses down to 1.1560-84 before higher
Break of 1.1750 has seen a test of the 1.1620 pivot support from where we are seeing a pullback. However, we feel that this should hold below the 1.1691-1.1712 resistance area. Thus a stronger bullish stance can only be considered on a break above 1.1715 and only if seen would allow for a rally back to the 1.1756-86 congestion & pivot resistance area at least. Further resistance is found at 1.1824-40. Any earlier decline from 1.1691-1.1712 should stall in the 1.1560-84 area and should provide a good buying opportunity for a pullback to the 1.1708-39 area.
With the break below the 1.1750-84 area the downside became more aggressive, reaching the 1.1620 pivot support and does displays signs of further weakness. For today we cautiously feel that price should remain below the 1.1691-1.1712 resistance area and generate a further leg lower down to the 1.1560-84 area. However, we look for this to hold and cause a stronger pullback. Thus only direct below 1.1560 would allow losses to extend down to 1.1513 at least. Further support is seen at 1.1455-65.
Elliott Wave Comments:
13th January 2005
While price did not meet the ideal 1.1983 target, the reversal from 1.1886 has not been sufficient to confirm a reversal lower and while the 1.1560-84 area holds there does remain one last chance of a recovery to 1.1983. This would count the high at 1.1886 as the end of a second Wave (c) in a triple three rally - thus implying further gains to the 1.1983 daily Fibonacci resistance.
To confirm the 1.1886 high as the Wave -iv- high we shall need to see loss of 1.1560 and of the prior pivot line which rests just below 1.1560. Quite likely though this should hold on first test and we shall need to gauge the reaction and how deep the pullback higher becomes. Break of 1.1560 would allow losses to continue to the Fibonacci projection at 1.1390.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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