- Equities: Equity markets opened to the downside following the sharp decline
in US markets late in the NY afternoon. European markets had closed near their
highs as the NYSE and NASDAQ rallied in the NY morning on Wednesday. These late
Wednesday gains were erased on the open with some key tech and pharma equities
in Switzerland and Holland providing disappointing Q1 numbers in the
pre-market. Credit Suisse (CSGN.SZ) however massively outperformed in its Q1
numbers opening +5.5% in Zurich. UK
retailer Debenhams' (DEB.UK) also provided strong H1 numbers pushing the UK
retail sector into the green from the European open. Strong Euro zone PMI and
Current Account numbers pushed markets to their then session highs with the UK
moving briefly above the unchanged mark and into positive territory. Retailers
still lead the way on the FTSE100 while Swiss exchanges outperformed on the
back of strong volume in shares of Credit Suisse. Rumors of talks between
Deutsche Bourse (DB1.GE) and NYSE Euronext (NYX) sparked further attention to
consolidation in the European ECN and trade platform names, adding further pos
weight to financial names. Equities accelerated their upward movements by with the CAC40 joining the FTSE100 in
- In specific Stocks: Credit Suisse [CSGN.SZ] Reports Q1 profit CHF2B v
CHF948Me, Rev CHF9.56B v CHF7.34Be, Q1 ROE 22.6% v -62%q/q, Q1 Tier 1 Ratio
14.1% v 13.3% q/q, Q1 Provision for credit losses CHF183 Mv CHF486M q/q.
||Debenhams [DEB.UK] Reports H1 Pretax Â£104.2M v Â£94.2Me, Rev Â£1.31B v Â£1.31Be,
LFL sales -3.6% y/y, gross margin for 26 weeks up 10bps y/y. || ABB Group
[ABBN.SZ] Reports Q1 Net profit $652M v $656Me, EBIT $862M v $1.35B y/y, Rev
$7.2B v $7.3Be, Q1 Orders $9.15B v $10.94B y/y. || Novartis [NOVN.SZ] Reports
Q1 Net income $1.96B v $1.87Be, EBIT $2.35B v $2.17Be, Rev $9.7B v $9.75Be, Q1
pharma sales $6.43B v $6.36Be. || SwedBank [SWEDA.SW] Reports Q1 Net loss
SEK3.36B v profit SEK1.11Be, Op loss SEK3.36B v profit SEK1.29Be , Q1 loan
losses SEK6.85B v SEK2.72Be, Tier 1 Capital Ratio 10.8% v 8.2% y/y, Taken
additional SEK3.7B provisioning. || Fiat [F.IT] Reportedly, Fiat will sign
letter of intent next week to purchase majority stake in Opel - Spiegel
- Speakers: SNB's Roth commented that the Swiss economy had not yet bottomed
out and forecasted 2009 GDP at -3.0%. He commented that 2010 GDP outlook was
flat. He stated that the position of Swiss banks were 'not bad' || SNB's
Hildebrand commented that the SNB to fight CHF appreciation while deflation
risks persists . Raising interest rates would face political opposition.
Economic downturn taking hold in second half of year. The SNB would drain
liquidity once threat of deflation subsided || UK's
Darling commented that G7 discussions cover wide-range of topics. Comment was
in response whether currencies would be discussed at this weekend's G7 finance
meeting in washington DC || Indonesian Central Bank forecasted 2010 GDP growth
above 5% || Russia's Central Bank cuts its key interest rate by 50bps to
12.50%; it also raised bank reserves requirements by 50bps, effective May 1st.
|| German institutes reiterated the view that the German economy would not
stabilize before mid-2010 (it revised its GDP estimates yesterday). It saw the
risk of a deflationary spiral if the financial crisis deepened. It advised
against any additional economic stimulus for Germany.
It did note that it saw a chance that rapid pace of decline in German economy
could end soon
- In Currencies: The USD price action was mixed in the session. The EUR/USD entering
the NY morning just off its best level and retesting the 1.3070 post Fed
Quantitative easing pivot point. The overall April flash PMIs for Europe
came in better than initially feared. The GBP rebounded after Wednesday post
budget sell-off to move towards the 1.46 neighborhood.
The JPY was a bit softer in the session. Dealers noted that toshin issue by
Nomura. The issue was mostly earmarked for emerging markets (BRL, ZAR, AUD,
- Fixed income: The long end of the UK
yield has borne the brunt of yesterday's UK Budget and selling has pushed the
yield on the 10y Gilt above 3.50% for the first time in a month. With short
dated issuance set to be comparatively light, buying has persisted in the short
end of the yield curve, leading to significant steepening. 2s10s in Gilts is
flirting with 220bps at the time of writing, with the record 237bps posted on
3rd March in full view. The pressure on long dated Gilts has spilled over into
Bunds and Treasuries. The 10y Note ominously touched a month high in terms of
yield at 2.974% in European hours, ahead of an eventful NY session, with an $8B
TIPS auction, 2, 5 and 7y note announcements and NY Fed coupon purchases all on
the horizon || A host of major European names announced plans to tap corporate
debt markets, with HSBC notably planning a 5y euro denominated benchmark
offering, Rolls Royce is looking to sell a Sterling 10y, and other offerings
from Peugeot, Accor and Portugal Telecom in the works. â‚¬ and Usd swap spreads
have narrowed a touch after encouraging earnings from Credit Suisse, whilst 3M
Euribor inched slightly higher to 1.406%.
- In Energy: Iraqi Oil Ministry will ask international oil companies to submit
bids for developing eight oil and gas fields at the end of June and expected to
sign agreements with international companies in July. Contracts would need the
approval of the Iraqi cabinet first.
- Credit Crisis: Ecuador's President Correa stated that the proposal to
repurchase around $3.2B in Global 2012 and 2030 bonds at a 70% discount could
be well-received by debt holders. The country has set aside funds for debt
would continue to honor its 2015 global bonds. Government goal was to buy back
all defaulted debt and would only offer buyback and no other mechanisms to restructure
defaulted debt. He commented that 30 cents on the dollar was "fair"
price to pay for defaulted debt.
*** NOTES ***
- Euro-Zone April PMI's reported throughout the session. Overall the data was
better than expectations. Dealers noted that a lot of emphasis was being placed
to see whether the PMI series showed signs of stabilization and improvement.
- Mixed earning results on the financial front. Credit Suisse shows Q1 profit; Japan's
Mizuho guides wider FY loss
- Looking Ahead: Key Earnings day. Some of the notable names include: ABC, AN,
AVT, BG, COP, DHR, EMC, FITB, GR, HSY, LCC, LL, MAR, PM, PNC, POT, RCL, RS,
RTN, STI, SVU, TMO, UPS,
- 8:30 (CA) Feb Canada Retail Sales M/M: -0.3% expected versus 1.9% prior; Y/Y:
0.2% expected versus 1.3% prior
- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 640K expected versus 610K prior; Continuing
Claims: 6.120M expected versus 6.022M prior
- 9:00 (BE) Apr Belgium Business Confidence: No estimate versus -28.6 prior
- 9:00 (US) Feb RPX Composite 28 day Index: No estimate
- 9:30 (BR) Mar Brazil Total Outstanding loans: No estimate versus $1.23B
prior; Private Lending: No estimate versus $770M prior
- 10:00 (US) Mar Existing Home Sales: 4.65M expected versus 4.72M prior
- 10:00 (US) Fed's Braunstein testifies before House Finance Committee
- 10:15 (US) Fed's May 2012 to Aug 2013 coupon purchase
- 10:30 (CA) Bank of Canada Monetary Policy report
- 11:00 (US) 2, 5 and 7 Y Note Announcement, $99B package expected
- 11:45 (US) Fed's Stern speaks in Washington
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $8B in 5y TIPS
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Tue 31 July 2018 AA JP- Bank of Japan A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence Wed 1 Aug 2018 A Final Mfg PMIs AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls A 15:00 US- EIA Crude AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision Thu 2 Aug 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 3 Aug 2018 A Final Services PMIs AA 12:30 US- Employment A 12:30 US/CA- Trade
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