- Much like yesterday's open, equity indices took a tumble this morning and
then popped right into positive territory shortly after the open. Although the
Swine Flu jitters seem to have died down somewhat, there are plenty of other
factors in play, chiefly the initial leaks surrounding the Treasury's stress
tests and the Feb S&P/CS housing data. Commentators are rejoicing that the
latter did not register another record-setting decline, with optimists fixing
on this as yet another sign that the housing market is bottoming. Note that the
decline in the index of home prices in 20 cities was 18.6%, a very slight
improvement over January's 19% decline. Bond prices opening higher but have since
given back any flight to safety bids as stocks recovered. The 5-year note is
down 4 ticks yielding 1.86% ahead of this afternoon's $35B auction. June Gold
is down 1.5% moving back below $900 on speculation central banks will become
more aggressive in selling gold.
- Despite reports last week that US regulators had imposed a harsh gag order on
banks with regards to the stress tests, the inevitable disclosure of the test
results has begun. Citing people familiar with the results, the WSJ reported
overnight that Citi and Bank of America have been told to raise billions of
dollars in fresh capital - apparently regulators want the banks to take on the
extra capital to provide a bigger cushion rather than to stave off insolvency.
Unsurprisingly, executives at both banks are reportedly objecting to the
findings. There were other reports circulating that US regulators are already
holding talks with Citi on the results and the bank's capital position. Note
that last night FDIC Chairwoman Bair reiterated that the stress tests are not
pass/fail "solvency tests." Meanwhile, republican banking point man
Senator Shelby believes many banks are inadequately capitalized, and called for
banks to be closed or merged with others if they fail the stress tests. Shares
of Citi and BoA are both down around 3% early on, while WFC is down about 2%.
- Pharma titans Bristol-Myers Squibb and Pfizer reported largely in line with
expectations this morning, and both firms reaffirmed their 2009 forecasts. Note
that Pfizer reported substantially lower revenues for several of its leading
drugs, including the blockbusters Lipitor (-13% y/y) and Chantix (- 36% y/y).
Mid-cap health insurance name Coventry
came in a bit ahead of the Street and reaffirmed its full-year guidance, noting
that membership growth in medicare business has been even stronger than
expected in 2009. Shares of CVH are up 6% and headed higher mid morning, while
PFE and BMY are underpeforming.
- In the European session BP said its profit fell 64% in Q1 despite its growing
production, improving refinery output and declining costs and the company's
Chairman said BP must adjust operations to $50/bbl world. Before the US
open, Valero beat earnings estimates as net income rose 18% amid higher margins
on gasoline and fuel oil.
- Office Depot made a small profit in Q1 (ex items), beating expectations for a
small loss. Note that ODP recorded a net loss $0.20 from charges related to its
decision to shut 107 underperforming stores. On the conference call, executives
warned that ODP is seeing no "material improvement" in corporate
spending in Q2. Apparel name Under Armour stomped estimates, but warned that Q2
would be much weaker. Fortune Brands guided well above the Street for its
upcoming Q1 results and reaffirmed its 2009 outlook. On the downside, the firm
cut its dividend to preserve cash. ODP is up nearly 20% in early trading, US is
up 14% and FO is up 8%.
- -In currency trading, the risk aversion theme that dominated the early
European session faded away during the New York
morning, aided by the faintly positive housing data. Both the USD and JPY saw
earlier gain evaporate as the S&P500 and DJIA recovered from electronic
sessions lows. The EUR/USD was back testing the pivotal 1.3070 level as the New
York morning drew to a close after testing 1.2965
earlier in the session. USD/JPY rebounded over 100 pips from session lows after
retesting its historical pivot point of 95 handle. Sterling
also firmed from its 1.4520 session low, aided by the best CBI distributive
data out of the UK
since January 2008. GBP/JPY surged almost 300 pips off its 139.00 lows to probe
the 142 neighborhood.
- Dealers have also been watching the session weakness in spot gold, attributed
to long liquidation chatter. Key support remained at $860/oz level. Additional
chatter circulated that an imminent new Central Bank gold pact that might lead
to changes to increase the amount of gold that can be sold. The central banks
are currently in the fifth and final year of a Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA).
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
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The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
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