In equities: Earning dominated the European morning and premarket
session. With numbers out of large cap firms including Lufthansa
[LHA.GE] and Renault [RNO.FR] after the close yesterday and BASF
[BAS.GE] Standard Life [SL.UK] British Sky Broadcasting [BSY.UK]
Technip [TEC.FR] MAN Ag [MAN.GE] and Erste Bank [EBS.AS] all reporting
in the European morning. Strength from the US session bleed into Asia
and transferred into Europe. Earnings coming in broadly above reduced
consensus estimates added further lightness. Despite a rise in the WHO
pandemic alert level and the WSJ noting an imminent bankruptcy filing
at Chrysler, confidence appears to be continuing to return to equity
markets. On the open, equities gapped up from Wednesdays closing highs
with the DAX30 printing it 2009 session highs. Looking at sector
performance, materials, led by BASF moved sharply higher along with
auto names (following earnings out of Renault and MAN-which were better
than peers Volvo and Scania) and financials (following upgrades out of
RBS on most UK names). Markets continued their upward momentum until
3:55EST at which time the Germany April unemployment number was leaked
(as usual), the figure of 58K was lower than expected but the overall
unemployment rate came in higher than expected at 8.3%. By 5:30EST,
markets had shaken unemployment figures for both Germany and the
Euro-zone pushing off to session highs near the +2% mark across the
****Reminder: EuroNext and Deutsche Bourse
will not hold equity trading tomorrow, May1 due to May Day Holiday. The
London Stock Exchange will be open and trading, but will be closed
Monday, May 4, due to May Day Bank Holiday.
- In company
specific news: BASF [BAS.GE] Reports Q1 Net â‚¬375M v â‚¬174.5Me. Rev
â‚¬12.2B v â‚¬12.4Be, to cut at least 2.000 jobs (about 2.1% of workforce)
in 2009. In 2009, despite the acquisitions of Ciba Holding AG and Revus
Energy ASA, BASF expects a decline in sales compared with 2008 and an
even greater decline in income from operations, which will be
negatively impacted by integration costs. ||Ericsson [ERICB.SW] Reports
Q1 Net SEK1.72B v SEK2.03Be, Rev SEK49.6B v SEK50.94Be, Q1 Gross Margin
36.3% v 35.2% q/q, Q1 Networks sales SEK33.5B v 45.8B q/q. || BG
[BG.UK] Reports Q1 Net income Â£706M v Â£612Me, Rev Â£3.1B v Â£3.08Be,
Reaffirms prior outlook remains unchanged. || British Sky Broadcasting
[BSY.UK] Reports 9-month Op Profit Â£589M v Â£521M y/y, Rev Â£3.96B v
Â£3.71B y/y, Op Margin 14.9% v 14.1% y/y. || Technip [TEC.FR] Reports Q1
Net â‚¬99M v â‚¬78Me, Rev â‚¬1.57B v â‚¬1.57Be, Guides FY Rev â‚¬6.1B - â‚¬6.4B v
â‚¬6.2Be , Reports Q1 EBITA â‚¬191M v â‚¬174.0Me. || Renault [RNO.FR] Reports
Q1 Râ‚¬7.08B v â‚¬7.7Be; reiterates global market sales target of 55M units
in 2009, Q1 sales down 31% y/y, Q1 new vehicle inventories -35.4%. ||
Man Ag [MAN.GE] Reports Q1 Net income â‚¬181M v â‚¬69.7Me, Op profit â‚¬100M,
Rev â‚¬2.56B v â‚¬2.45Be. Q1 Total orders â‚¬2.3B, -53% y/y, Q1 Commercial
â‚¬1.4B, -61% y/y. Does not expect economic situation to improve in near
term. || Lufthansa [LHA.GE] Reports Q1 net loss -â‚¬44M v loss -â‚¬176.6Me
, Râ‚¬5.0B v â‚¬5.00Be; Affirms outlook . Expects FY revenue to decline and
reasonable drop in operating results. || Aker Solutions [AKSO.NO]
Reports Q1 Net NOK603M v NOK581.3Me, EBITDA NOK1.1B v NOK1.08Be Rev
NOK14.9B v NOK13.86Be; Maintain FY09 outlook, Q1 order intake at
- Speakers: ECB's Nowotny commented that
the global macro economic framework would emerge from financial and
economic crisis a changed entity. He reiterated the central bank view
that economic growth would return in 2010. Lastly, that high
uncertainty over economy calls for "steady hand' policy. He also
commented that there were signs of "Green Shoots" taking root inside
the European economy || BOJ's Gov Shirakawa commented that the central
bank's Board fully discussed deflation risk at today's policy meeting.
He noted that the BOJ would not rule out any policy steps. He did not
believe Japanese deflation risk was high and stated that there was a
slim risk of any deflationary spiral. Bond buying was part of BOJ's
monetary policy and should not be used to fund government spending.
Bond buying for Gov't spending could damage credibility and in turn
affect bond yields. He did comment that the global economy might not
recover as prior cycles and that lower growth potential had no impact
on short term monetary policy. || BoJ cut its economic outlook to -3.1%
for 2009 from its January estimate of -2.0% || UK Trade Minister also
observed that signs that the global economy was stabilizing || German
Fin Ministry commented that the Govt was likely to seek extra budget in
2009 and that its credit needs exceed â‚¬50B. Fin Min Steinbrueck
commented that would present any supplementary budget request after new
tax revenues estimates are released in May.
Currencies: Month end saw the USD and JPY currencies remain on the
defensive as rising risk appetite continues. This has translated into
stronger European and commodity-related currencies. The week saw a
plethora of comments from both government and central bank officials
that signs of economic stabilization seem to be taking root. Such
comments again echoed in the session by ECB's Nowotny and UK Trade
Minister Davies. Basic metals and higher oil prices aiding the CAD and
AUD sentiment. EUR/USD probed towards the 1.34 handle after igniting
some upside technical momentum on Wednesday. However, however giddy the
prospects for potential growth is hampered by rising unemployment. The
EUR/USD retracing towards the lower portion of the 1.33 neighbor hood
following the Euro-Zone March unemployment rising towards it highest
level since Nov 2005 and concerns over a supplementary German budget.
Dealers noting that 1.3260 is the short term pivot point support in the
pair || Norwegian Central Bank commented that it would not purchase
currencies in May for its oil sovereign wealth fund || USD/CNY pair,
the USD retraced its 2009 gains against the CNY during the month of
April. The pair at 6.8170 level.
-In Fixed Income:
With investors appetite for riskier assets on the rise government bond
markets have suffered this morning. Gilt markets absorbed Â£1.1B in 2022
linker supply but despite a strong auction, covered 2.08 times, UK debt
has underperformed its peers. Treasuries have held up the best ahead of
the NY Fed's coupon purchases, however the yield on the 10y Note is
firmly above the 3.00% level with traders looking at 3.30% as the next
level of support. The Long Bond smoked yesterday after the treasury
increased its issuance schedule, is also being sold in European hours,
with the yield now above 4.05%
- In Energy: Russian Dep
Min Sechin commented that the Ukraine needs to purchase and store at
least 19B CM of natural gas to ensure transit pipeline to Europe
*** NOTES ***
- World Health Organization (WHO) confirms Phase 5 level of 6 in total; verge of the first influenza pandemic since 1968
- GM's bond holders plan to reject company's debt exchange offer and would present an alternative offer on Thursday
Traders noting tat $1.0B inflow into Taiwan stocks today, which is the
4th highest daily equity inflow on record. Money coming back to work.
- German DAX Index briefly went into positive territory YTD
- Lots of official talk of "Green Shoots" taking roots in economy; but unemployment continues to rise.
- Market conditions thinning out ahead of Japan's Golden Week and Europe's May Day holidays
Looking Ahead: Big US Corp earnings day. Some of the more notable names
prior to the NYSE open include: Astrazeneca [AZN]; Cardnial Health
[CAH]; Comcast [CMCSA]; Coviden [COV]; Dominion [D]; Dow Chemical
[DOW]; General Motors [GM]; Kellogg [K]; KBR [KBR]; Motorola [MOT];
Mylan Labs [MYL]; NRG Energy [NRG]; Proter & Gamble [PG]; Shire
[SHPGY]; Safeway [SWY]; Travelers [TRV] Viacom [VIA.B]; Exxon Mobil
- 8:00 (SA) South African March Trade Balance: -ZAR3.6B expected v ZAR0.6B prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Feb GDP M/M: -0.1% expected v -0.7% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canadian March Industrial Product Price M/M: 0.5% expected v 0.4% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Industrial Product Price M/M: 0.5% expected v 0.4% prior, Raw Material Price Index M/M: 2.0% expected v 1.7% prior
- 8:30 (US) March Personal Income (last -0.2%), March Personal Spending (last 0.2%),
- 8:30 (US) March PCE Deflator y/y (last 1.0%), March PCE Core (last m/m 0.2%, y/y 1.8%),
- 9:45 (US) April Chicago Purchasing Manager Index (last 31.4)
- 10:00 (US) April NAPM-Milwaukee (last 30)
- 10:30 (US) Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (US) NY Fed to repurchase 08/15/2019 - 02/15/2026 T-Notes
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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