Thursday April 30, 2009 - 16:30:31 GMT
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GCI Financial - www.gcitrading.com
Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (30 April 2009)
The euro depreciated vis-Ã -vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3190
level and was capped around the US$ 1.3385 level. Many data were released in the U.S. today.
First, March personal income was off 0.3% m/m and up 0.3% y/y. Second, personal
consumption expenditures were off 0.2% m/m and off 0.9% y/y while core PCE was
up 0.2% m/m and 1.8% y/y. Third, Q1
employment costs were up 0.3% q/q, the smallest gain since at least 1982, and
were up 2.1% y/y. Fourth, the Chicago
ISM Business Barometer rose to 40.1 in April from 31.4 in March and these data
suggest the currenbt recession may end by the end of the year. Fourth, weekly initial jobless claims were
off 14,000 to 631,000. Confidence seems
to be increase following yesterdayâ€™s largely unchanged statement from the
Federal Open Market Committee. Traders
are paying close attention to ongoing talks between the Obama administration
and Chrysler. In eurozone news, EMU-16 March unemployment rose to 8.9% from 8.7%
in February and the EMU-16 April flash annualized inflation level printed at a
record low of 0.6%. The German
government reported it will likely need a supplementary budget and the German
budget deficit is set to rise to â‚¬80 billion.
bids are cited around the US$ 1.2765 level.
The yen depreciated vis-Ã -vis the U.S. dollar today as the
greenback tested offers around the Â¥98.90 level and was supported around the Â¥97.15
level. As expected, Bank of Japan kept official
interest rates unchanged and reduced its expectations for economic growth in
fiscal year 2009 on account of declining exports. BoJ also reported it expects international
economies to begin recovering in the latter half of the current fiscal year. The Nikkei 225 yesterday stock index climbed
3.94% to close at Â¥8,828.26. U.S. dollar
offers are cited around the Â¥104.15 level.
The euro moved higher
vis-Ã -vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the Â¥131.05 level
and was supported around the Â¥128.90 level.
The British pound moved higher
vis-Ã -vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the Â¥146.60 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-Ã -vis
the yen and tested offers around the Â¥86.80 level.
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