Friday January 14, 2005 - 00:55:27 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 14th January 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.1758 ... 1.1790 ... 1.1810 ... 1.1840
Support....: 1.1710 ... 1.1670 ... 1.1635 ... 1.1584
Slightly mixed - though with a mildly bearish preference while the 1.1758 resistance holds
Break above 1.1712 has seen a move that is approaching the 1.1756-86 congestion resistance. Indeed, any bullish scenario reqires a break of this area with resistance identified this morning at 1.1758-60. Should this break we would then expect to see gains extend towards 1.1790-1.1810 which could stall progress though later we would expect to see a test at 1.1886-94.
Break of 1.1712 has caused the recovery to bite deeper and is now approaching the key 1.1758-60 resistance. We feel there is a good chance that this will hold and cause an initial drift back lower to the 1.1700-10 area which could stall temporarily. A break at 1.1700 is required to accelerate losses down to 1.1666-74, then below 1.1625 and we feel a stronger move could see 1.1543 later today.
Elliott Wave Comments:
13th January 2005
While price did not meet the ideal 1.1983 target, the reversal from 1.1886 has not been sufficient to confirm a reversal lower and while the 1.1560-84 area holds there does remain one last chance of a recovery to 1.1983. This would count the high at 1.1886 as the end of a second Wave (c) in a triple three rally - thus implying further gains to the 1.1983 daily Fibonacci resistance.
To confirm the 1.1886 high as the Wave -iv- high we shall need to see loss of 1.1560 and of the prior pivot line which rests just below 1.1560. Quite likely though this should hold on first test and we shall need to gauge the reaction and how deep the pullback higher becomes. Break of 1.1560 would allow losses to continue to the Fibonacci projection at 1.1390.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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