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Friday May 1, 2009 - 10:01:15 GMT
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Forex Research - European Market Update: UK PMI Manufacturing at best level since Aug

Today 05:54am EST/09:54am GMT

European Market Update: UK PMI Manufacturing at best level since Aug

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (ID) Indonesia Mar Total Trade Balance: $2.01B v 1.27B prior

- (ID) Indonesia Apr Inflation M/M: -0.3% v 0.0%e, Y/Y: 7.3% v 7.6%e

- (IN) India Mar Trade Balance: -$4.0B v -$6.3B y/y; Exports Y/Y: -33.3% v -21.7% prior; Imports Y/Y: -34% v -23.3% prior

- (IR) Irish Apr PMI Manufacturing 36.1 v 35.1 prior

- (DE) Denmark Mar Retail Sales M/M: 0.1% v 0.9% prior, Y/Y: -3.7% v -8.9% prior

- (UK) Mar Net Consumer Credit: £0.1B v £0.1Be; Net Lending: £0.8B v £1.6Be

- (UK) Mar Mortgage approvals: 39K v 40Ke; highest reading since May 2008

- (UK) March Final M4 Money Supply M/M: 0.2% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 17.8% v 17.6% prior

- (UK) Apr PMI Manufacturing: 42.9 v 40.0e; highest reading since Aug 2008

- (UK) Q1 Liquidations in England & Wales at 4.9K, +56% y/y and +7.1% q/q; Personal insolvencies at 29.8K, +19% y/y and +6% q/q

- (DE) Danish Apr PMI Survey: 33.8 v 29.6 prior



*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- In equities: May day celebrations bring a holiday to Deutsche Bourse and NYSE Euronext. In the absence of continental trading the London Stock Exchange trades alone on little fresh earnings news. US futures rallied back to the unchanged mark just prior to the London open, but the FTSE100 Still opened to the downside, snapping a two day pos open streak. Financial names led the downside, specifically insurance names including Old Mutual (OML.UK) and Prudential (PRU.UK) on the back of poor US insurance Q1 reports in the New York post market yesterday afternoon (MET). Utilities and energy names held on to gains in early trading at oil in electronic trading, while in negative territory, remains above the $50/bbl handle. Just after the abbreviated European open, Citi announced the finalization of their Nikko Cordial Japanese Brokerage to Sumitomo for $7.9B. In light trading (approx 42% below its 30 day average), the FTSE100 turned positive by 4:00EST and then again negative just past 5:00EST. UK Data including PMI, mortgage approvals and Q1 individual and corporate liquidations had little net effect on equity trading patterns as the majority of European firms enjoyed the continental European holiday.

- In Specific equity news: UK FASB reportedly close to new regulation regarding 'off balance sheet' assets for UK banks. Chairman Herz has noted the Financial Acounting Standards Board is close to new decision that could add up to billions of new assets to books that are currently not listed. ||Vodafone [VOD.UK] Threatens legal action against Telecom NZ regarding 3G network launch. NZ Telecom has stated that it is in full compliance with its terms of Spectrum License. Vodafone states that NZ telecom's network is causing interference on its on platform. || Pearson [PSON.UK] Provides interim statement: Reports Q1 Rev £1B v £800M y/y; sees trading in line with expectations. || Siemens [SIE.GE] Reportedly awarded INR13.8B order form Adani Power, to install 2.5K MW high voltage direct current transmission system. || UBS [UBSN.SZ] Tells Miami judge that it would violate Swiss criminal law to comply with the demands of the US tax authority on disclosing its clients. Spokesperson: "The summons is incompatible with the tax treaty between the United States and Switzerland, which provides specific standards for government-to-government exchanges of information relating to tax matters." || Citi [C] Sumitomo Mitsui agrees to purchase Citi's Nikko Cordial Securities for total cash value of ¥774.5B ($7.9B). Cash consideration of transaction put at ¥545B ($5.4B). Citi states that deal will generate up to $2.5B in tangible common equity. Deal to include payments of $28.5B in equity securities, $201B in cash. Citi expected to recognize an after-tax loss of approximately $200M. ||


- In Currencies: The session began with another bout of risk appetite as both the USD and JPY currencies maintained soft tones. Initially, the China Apr PMI data was cited as the catalyst. China's PMI Manufacturing registered its second consecutive month of expansion and provides further evidence of recent government and central banker rhetoric of "green shoots". The rotation out of bonds and into equities are also suggesting a growing optimism that the worst of the global recession has past.

- The UK data also suggested some improvement as UK PMI manufacturing and mortgage approval hit levels since last summer. The GBP was firmer against its major pairs with GBP/USD back above the 1.48 level and GBP/JPY inching towards 148.

- The CAD continued its firm tone and was again probing its 200-day mvg avg of 1.1855


-In Fixed Income: US Treasury's hover close to unchanged in holiday-thinned electronic trading Friday. Dealers noted that activity was extremely light with major European markets closed for the May Day holiday, while the UK and Japan participants were preparing to be closed Monday.


- Credit Crisis: Sweden's Fin Min Borg comments on US banking bailout efforts. Borg expressed doubts that it could work. Believes that U.S. officials should confront the financial industry's political power and seize temporary ownership of troubled banks. Otherwise, error-prone bankers will be bailed out at taxpayer expense. Article noted that during a crisis in the early 1990s, Sweden successfully rehabilitated its banking system via temporary nationalization. The government divided the industry into healthy banks and troubled institutions. It pumped capital into the healthy ones, while punishing their shareholders, and held onto the troubled assets until their values recovered. Borg stated that their approach better protected taxpayers than the current U.S. strategy.



*** NOTES ***

- Risk appetite continues to receive booster shots. China Official Apr PMI Manufacturing came in at 53.5 compared to its prior reading of 52.4. This was its highest level since Apr 2008 and the second consecutive month of expansion. The European PMI in Ireland, UK and Denmark also were better that prior releases.

- Sumitomo Mitsui agrees to purchase Citi's Nikko Cordial Securities for ¥545B (about $5.52B)

- Stress tests release delayed by a few days as banking executives debate preliminary findings with Federal examiners

- Obama might get an early pick for the US Supreme Court as Souter seeks to retire.

- Looking ahead:

-10:00 (US) April Final U. of Michigan Confidence: 61.9 expected versus prior 61.9

- 10:00 (US) April ISM Manufacturing: 38.4 versus prior 36.3; Prices Paid: 34.0 expected versus 31.0

- 10:00 (US) March Factory Orders: -0.6% versus prior -1.8%

- No set time (US) Apr Total vehicle sales expected at 9.7M versus 9.9M prior; Domestic sales expected 7.1M versus 7.1M prior

 

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Tue 24 Oct
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14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
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John M. Bland, MBA
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