May Day rest.US equities opened around where they closed
previously, and mounted a small rally, but failed to reach Thursday's peak. The
S&P500 ended up only 0.5%, with banks losing ground by 2.4%. The banking sector
was clouded by uncertainty, after US regulators said the eagerly awaited stress
tests will be delayed to 7 May (after the markets close). Apparently there is
debate over valuation methods. With European markets closed for the holiday,
the US session was fairly subdued. WTO oil rose 4.1%,
and copper gained 2.6%, partly on the better US ISM and consumer sentiment
revision. The surge in the new orders component, relative to inventories,
points to stronger ISM numbers ahead, in turn pointing to stronger PMI's - a
positive for equities markets ahead; on the other hand, we have had so many
positive data surprises recently that expectations may start to leapfrog
reality, setting up for disappointments - a negative for equities markets and
EUR tracked sideways, for no net change during the UK and US sessions, ending at around 1.3270. GBP
was livelier, stronger PMI numbers helping boost the sterling from 1.48 to
AUD ranged sideways between 0.7250 and 0.7350; a
Terry McCrann article was noted late Friday, saying the RBA would pause on
Tuesday, already consensus.
A NZD short squeeze spiked the
kiwi from 0.5660 to 0.5743, continuing a succession of lower peaks since
Wednesday. Profit-taking saw AUD/NZD dribble lower to 1.2800.
US UoM consumer sentiment revised
higher in April. The headline
was revised up by 3.2 pts, reflecting a 1.7 pt revision to the current measure
and a 5.2 pt revision to expectations. At the new higher level, the UoM April
reading is the strongest since September last year (70.3), when Lehman Bros
went under. Shorter term inflation expectations were revised lower but 5 yr
expectations were nudged higher. The upswing in equities through to late April
and very steady gasoline prices, seem to have been more dominant factors than
the latest concerns about swine flu and the bankruptcy of Chrysler (which might
impact more in the May data).
US factory ISM up from 36.3 to 40.1 in Apr. The ISM is now back above 40, its strongest
result since 43.4 in September last year. That still means the industrial
sector is contracting, but at a less steep pace than in Q4 and Q1. The surge in
the orders component was particularly steep (though 47.2 still implies a
decline). The ISM jobs measure improved somewhat too, which is a signal that
the pace of job losses in the factory sector might be abating.
US factory orders down 0.9% in Mar. Continued softness in non-durable orders and an
unrevised fall in the durables component delivered a broadly as expected
moderate decline in total factory orders back in March. That is consistent with
the industrial sector still contracting, but not as steeply as at the start of
Japanese workers crunched;
unemployment rate jumps to 4.8% but household spending holds the line. The export-led collapse in industrial production
continues to radiate through Japan's through Japan's household sector. Unemployment jumped sharply
in March, from 4.4% to 4.8%, well above market expectations of a more
incremental increase to 4.50%. Household spending continues to contract sharply,
albeit less sharply than had been feared for March - real spending slipped 0.4%
in the month. There were more signs of slippage in consumer prices, with a flat
outcome for Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food in April dragging the annual core inflation
rate down to -0.6%yr.
UK PMI factory up from 39.5 to 42.9 in Apr. As with most factory PMIs from around the world
(though not Australia's), the UK index was stronger in April, for the second
month running, implying a slower pace of contraction in the industrial sector at
the start of Q2, compared to earlier this year.
UK Mar lending update. The recent upswing in mortgage lending from
economy-throttlingly low levels to merely extremely weak levels was sustained
in March but not really built upon. The number of new loans rose slightly but
the value of outstandings growth at GBP0.76bn was the second lowest on record
(after GBP0.43bn in August last year), probably due to increased pay-down of
debt. Consumer credit outstandings growth of just GBP130 million in recent
months is running at about one tenth of the growth pace seen back in 2007,
reflecting tighter lending standards, less spending and increased debt
Price action since Thursday favours a test of
0.5620 during the next session, followed by 0.5450 later this week. Today's Q1
hourly earnings report will add colour to Thursday's important Q1 employment
Release Last Forecast
NZ Q1 QES
Private Sector Ord Time 0.8% 0.7%
TD-MI Inflation Gauge β0.1% β
Apr ANZ Job
Ads β8.5% β
Price Index β0.8% flat
Pending Home Sales 2.1% 1.5%
Constructions Spending β0.9% β1.0%
Eur Apr PMI
Factory (F) 36.7 a 36.7
Investor Confidence β35.3 β38.0
Economic Forecasts β1.8% β4.0%
Retail Sales β0.2% β0.5%
Speizer, Senior Market Strategist, NZ, Ph: (04) 470 8266
from Westpac Economics
Economic Overview May 2009 (1 May)
β’ NZ Q1
labour market preview (30 April)
β’ RBNZ OCR
Review (30 April)
β’ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (27 April)
β’ RBNZ OCR
Preview (23 April)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.