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Forex Blog - European market Update: PMI data continue to recover from historic lows; EU revises Euro-area GDP forecasts lower

Today 05:56am EST/09:56am GMT

European market Update: PMI data continue to recover from historic lows; EU revises Euro-area GDP forecasts lower

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (RU) Russia Apr PMI Manufacturing: 43.4 v 42.0 prior

- (IN) India Apr PMI Manufacturing: 53.3 v 49.5 prior

- Polish Apr PMI Manufacturing 42.1 v 42.2 prior

- (GE) German Mar Retail Sales M/M: -1.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -1.5% v -0.3%e

- (SW) Swedbank Apr PMI Survey: 38.8 v 38.4e

- (NO) Norway Apr PMI SA: v 39.5e

- (SP) Spain Apr PMI Manufacturing: 34.6 v 32.9 prior

- (SZ) Swiss Apr SVME PMI: 34.7 v 34.0e

- (IT) Italian Apr PMI Manufacturing: 37.2 v 36.8e

- (FR) French Apr Final PMI Manufacturing: 40.1 v 40.0 prior

- (GE) German Apr Final PMI Manufacturing: 35.4 v 35.0 prior

- (EU) Euro-zone Apr Final PMI Manufacturing: 36.8 v 36.7 prior

- (IT) Italian Mar PPI M/M: -0.7% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: -4.6% v -4.3%e

- (EU) May Sentix Investor Confidence: -34.3 v -28.0e

- (HK) Hong Kong Mar Retail Sales - Value Y/Y: -7.7% v -5.6%E, Volume Y/Y: -9.3% v -6.8%E

- (SA) South Africa Investec PMI: 35.6 v 36.0 prior

- (SP) Spain Apr car registrations -46% y/y



*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- European equity markets opened to the positive side on the back of continued risk appetite flowing out of Asia. The Australian ASX closed at a 6-month high while the Bombay Sensex-30 breached the 12,000 level for the first time since Oct 2008 in the European pre-market. As London holds its May Day Bank Holiday, equity trading for the day will be concentrated on the continent. News out of Fiat [F.IT], regarding its new operations with US based Chrysler and its hope to roll GM's OPEL [GM]into a new spun off Fiat/OPEL brand has rallied automotive names following the dismal (yet less dismal than expected) US April sales figures out last Friday. Rising PMI's in Europe and Asia have added further lightness to the equity buying and heavy manufacturing names, including ThyssenKrupp [TKA.GE], MAN [MAN.GE], and ArcelorMittal [MT.NV] are outperforming. Banks are trading higher, ignoring potentially damaging news out the FT that both Bank of America [BAC] and Citi [C] will need to raise approx $10B in new capital as a result of findings form the US Treasury's 'stress test.' Bank of America and Citi are both trading lower in Frankfurt trading. Trading patterns remained choppy but broadly positive as markets shrugged off lower than expected Italian PPI figures printing session highs just after 4:00EST. Gains were paired as the 4:00EST hr developed and volatility remained high. Gains were quickly recovered, however, as markets on mixed volume printed new session highs past 5:30EST. Official confirmation from the EU lower 2009 and 2010 GDP forecasts muted acceleration but gains remained held.


- In individual stocks: the FT is reporting that Bank of America [BAC] and Citi [C] may be planning to raise up to $10B each in response to stress test results. Stress results suggest that both Citi and BAC need at least that much, while officials from these banks maintain they don't need additional capital and may dispute govt findings. The FT report also noted that stress test results suggest Wells Fargo and PNC Financial Services may need additional capital. || Barclays [BARC.UK], Barclays Capital, bolstered by Lehman acquisition seen as boosting firms Q1 operations -Times. Analysts looking for Q1 Net around £1.2B. Article states that banks investment bank arm has seen large gains in Q1, much of which coming from its Wall St ops from acquired Lehman assets. || RBS [RBS.UK] Finance Director, Guy Whittaker to resign - The Independent. Whittaker is expected to remain as finance director until a new person is hired, which could take as long as 6 months. || WPP[ WPP.UK] firm will cut additional 7,200 (approx 5% of workforce) positions in 2009 -Guardian. Cuts part of global target to bring staffing down to 106K by the end of 2009. Sees majority of cuts in N American and UK markets. ||EDF [EDF.FR] May seek to sell its regulated electricity distribution unit Dalkia in the UK - FT . || Solar World [SWV.GE] Reports Q1 Net €24M v €23.3Me, EBIT €39M v €40.9Me, Rev €176M v €196Me, Q1 EBIT margin 22.2% v 23.3% y/y. CEO: Performance in 2009 will be dependent on price products can bring, so far selling prices down approx 10% y/y. || TNT [TNT.NV] Reports Q1 Net €76M v €88Me, EBIT €163M v €153Me, Rev €2.44B v €2.50Be, Expects express sales to decline in 2009, Q1 Mail unit rev -2.2% y/y, Q1 Express unit rev -15.5% y/y, Q1 International & Domestic rev -13.8% y/y, Q1 Emerging platforms rev -6.4% y/y.


- In speakers: the EU Commission lowered its 2009 Euro Zone GDP forecast to -4.0% from -1.9% prior. It cut its 2010 GDP forecast to -0.1%. The Commission also raised its 2009 outlook for average budget deficits in the Euro Zone to 5.3% of GDP from the 4% prior. || ECB's Weber commented that recovery in Germany could be slow, with the country unlikely to see positive growth before the second half of 2010. Recent signs of hope are not a reliable indicator that the worst of the economic crisis is over. He said there are no signs of tentative improvement in German financial markets, raising the danger that bank sector losses would persist || EU's Almunia commented that he saw positive signs about Euro Zone economy recently but outlook remains gloomy. He stated that the economy was no longer in free fall, but warned that the situation remained fragile. Risks to growth scenario remain on the downside and were critical to have exit strategy on high public debt issuance|| Polish Central Banker Noga commented that he expected CPI to be within its target by Q1 2010. He stated that he was not surprised with Apr CPI estimate in which M/M: seen at 0.6% versus 0.7% prior, Y/Y seen at 3.9% compared to 3.6% prior. The Official release for inflation data is set for May 14th. ||Japan Fin Min Yosano reiterated the view that major gov'ts need to support demand via its monetary policy. He noted that an Asian recovery was the key to a global economic rebound. Developing nations in Asia to suffer "spillover" effects from crisis and commented that the Asian Development Bank (ADB) needed to diversify its lending instruments


- In currencies: The absence of Japanese and UK participants curtailed trading volumes on Monday. The EUR/USD stayed in a fairly tight 1.3270 to 1.3320 during the European morning but was ending the morning at the lower end of its range. A rising risk appetite was keeping both the USD and JPY softer with European and commodity-related currencies firmer but comments from the EU Commission regarding the growth outlook weighed against sentiment as the NY morning approached. The focus will eventually turn to the upcoming ECB meeting and the release of U.S. bank stress tests results.

- Former MoF Official Sakakibara (aka "Mr Yen") amended his currency view a bit on the JPY. He now sees the JPY currency continuing its trend of weakness against USD possibly towards the 110 level. In early mar he saw 100 as the upper end in this pair. USD/JPY little changed from its opening level in Asia at 99.42. Asian nations announced that they would start a $120 billion foreign-currency reserve pool by year-end. Dealers noted that concept of these countries getting together and cooperating was more important then the size of the fund.


- In fixed income: With a natural bias towards being offered, German fixed income has held up surprisingly well in thin volumes this morning. With just under ninety thousand contracts traded, Bund futures are down just 3 ticks at 122.50 at the time of writing, despite strong equities and a gap to close on Treasuries. The Bund is trading just 3bps cheap to the 10y Note, which has stayed above 3.15% in throughout Asian and European hours, having traded 25pbs cheap just a week ago. With no supply and London closed for a bank holiday, next up the NY Fed will intervene in Treasury markets for the 14th time this year, looking to buy T-notes maturing between 2016 - 2019

||Reportedly Q1 US states and municipalities borrowings at $53.5B; Refinanced $31.0B to reduce interest payments and extend maturities

- In Energy: Russia planning new floating 70MW nuclear reactors to provide power to Gazprom in remote oil exploration. Construction for platforms already underway and aimed at exploration in the Barents and Kara seas; submersible nuclear powered drilling rigs also rumored to be designed. Russia noted that the power stations would store own waste


*** NOTES ***

- Setting up to be an active week on the data front with the RBA, BOE and ECB making policy decisions. The US bank stress tests are due on Thursday,

- Chinese think tank, State Information Centre, China's Q2 GDP is seen at 7% v 6.1% in Q1

- Emerging market PMIs manufacturing showing sign of growth (China and India) while European PMIs bounce off historic lows

Looking Ahead: US Earnings season continue with another heavy week of reports

- 7:00 (EU) ECB's Papademos

- 9:30 (BZ) Brazil Apr PMI Manufacturing: No expectations v 42.2 prior

- 11:00 (US) NY Fed to buyback Notes maturing between 02/29/2016 - 02/15/2019

- Note that Japan is out until Thursday due to Golden Week holidays

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
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01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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