- European equity markets opened to the positive side on the back of continued
risk appetite flowing out of Asia. The Australian ASX closed at a 6-month high
while the Bombay Sensex-30 breached
the 12,000 level for the first time since Oct 2008 in the European pre-market.
As London holds its May Day Bank
Holiday, equity trading for the day will be concentrated on the continent. News
out of Fiat [F.IT], regarding its new operations with US based Chrysler and its
hope to roll GM's OPEL [GM]into a new spun off Fiat/OPEL brand has rallied
automotive names following the dismal (yet less dismal than expected) US April
sales figures out last Friday. Rising PMI's in Europe
and Asia have added further lightness to the equity
buying and heavy manufacturing names, including ThyssenKrupp [TKA.GE], MAN
[MAN.GE], and ArcelorMittal [MT.NV] are outperforming. Banks are trading
higher, ignoring potentially damaging news out the FT that both Bank of America
[BAC] and Citi [C] will need to raise approx $10B in new capital as a result of
findings form the US Treasury's 'stress test.' Bank of America and Citi are
both trading lower in Frankfurt trading. Trading
patterns remained choppy but broadly positive as markets shrugged off lower
than expected Italian PPI figures printing session highs just after 4:00EST.
Gains were paired as the 4:00EST hr developed and volatility remained high.
Gains were quickly recovered, however, as markets on mixed volume printed new
session highs past 5:30EST. Official confirmation from the EU lower 2009 and
2010 GDP forecasts muted acceleration but gains remained held.
- In individual stocks: the FT is reporting that Bank of America [BAC] and Citi
[C] may be planning to raise up to $10B each in response to stress test
results. Stress results suggest that both Citi and BAC need at least that much,
while officials from these banks maintain they don't need additional capital
and may dispute govt findings. The FT report also noted that stress test
results suggest Wells Fargo and PNC Financial Services may need additional
capital. || Barclays [BARC.UK], Barclays Capital, bolstered by Lehman acquisition
seen as boosting firms Q1 operations -Times. Analysts looking for Q1 Net around
Â£1.2B. Article states that banks investment bank arm has seen large gains in
Q1, much of which coming from its Wall St ops from acquired Lehman assets. ||
RBS [RBS.UK] Finance Director, Guy Whittaker to resign - The Independent.
Whittaker is expected to remain as finance director until a new person is
hired, which could take as long as 6 months. || WPP[ WPP.UK] firm will cut
additional 7,200 (approx 5% of workforce) positions in 2009 -Guardian. Cuts
part of global target to bring staffing down
to 106K by the end of 2009. Sees majority of cuts in N American and UK
markets. ||EDF [EDF.FR] May seek to sell its regulated electricity distribution
unit Dalkia in the UK
- FT . || Solar World [SWV.GE] Reports Q1 Net â‚¬24M v â‚¬23.3Me, EBIT â‚¬39M v
â‚¬40.9Me, Rev â‚¬176M v â‚¬196Me, Q1 EBIT margin 22.2% v 23.3% y/y. CEO: Performance
in 2009 will be dependent on price products can bring, so far selling prices
down approx 10% y/y. || TNT [TNT.NV] Reports Q1 Net â‚¬76M v â‚¬88Me, EBIT â‚¬163M v
â‚¬153Me, Rev â‚¬2.44B v â‚¬2.50Be, Expects express sales to decline in 2009, Q1 Mail
unit rev -2.2% y/y, Q1 Express unit rev -15.5% y/y, Q1 International &
Domestic rev -13.8% y/y, Q1 Emerging platforms rev -6.4% y/y.
- In speakers: the EU Commission lowered its 2009 Euro Zone GDP forecast to
-4.0% from -1.9% prior. It cut its 2010 GDP forecast to -0.1%. The Commission
also raised its 2009 outlook for average budget deficits in the Euro Zone to
5.3% of GDP from the 4% prior. || ECB's Weber commented that recovery in Germany
could be slow, with the country unlikely to see positive growth before the
second half of 2010. Recent signs of hope are not a reliable indicator that the
worst of the economic crisis is over. He said there are no signs of tentative
improvement in German financial markets, raising the danger that bank sector
losses would persist || EU's Almunia commented that he saw positive signs about
Euro Zone economy recently but outlook remains gloomy. He stated that the
economy was no longer in free fall, but warned that the situation remained
fragile. Risks to growth scenario remain on the downside and were critical to
have exit strategy on high public debt issuance|| Polish Central Banker Noga
commented that he expected CPI to be within its target by Q1 2010. He stated
that he was not surprised with Apr CPI estimate in which M/M: seen at 0.6%
versus 0.7% prior, Y/Y seen at 3.9% compared to 3.6% prior. The Official
release for inflation data is set for May 14th. ||Japan Fin Min Yosano
reiterated the view that major gov'ts need to support demand via its monetary
policy. He noted that an Asian recovery was the key to a global economic
rebound. Developing nations in Asia to suffer
"spillover" effects from crisis and commented that the Asian
Development Bank (ADB) needed to diversify its lending instruments
- In currencies: The absence of Japanese and UK
participants curtailed trading volumes on Monday. The EUR/USD stayed in a
fairly tight 1.3270 to 1.3320 during the European morning but was ending the
morning at the lower end of its range. A rising risk appetite was keeping both
the USD and JPY softer with European and commodity-related currencies firmer
but comments from the EU Commission regarding the growth outlook weighed
against sentiment as the NY morning approached. The focus will eventually turn
to the upcoming ECB meeting and the release of U.S. bank stress tests results.
- Former MoF Official Sakakibara (aka "Mr Yen") amended his currency
view a bit on the JPY. He now sees the JPY currency continuing its trend of
weakness against USD possibly towards the 110 level. In early mar he saw 100 as
the upper end in this pair. USD/JPY little changed from its opening level in Asia
at 99.42. Asian nations announced that they would start a $120 billion
foreign-currency reserve pool by year-end. Dealers noted that concept of these
countries getting together and cooperating was more important then the size of
- In fixed income: With a natural bias towards being offered, German fixed
income has held up surprisingly well in thin volumes this morning. With just
under ninety thousand contracts traded, Bund futures are down just 3 ticks at
122.50 at the time of writing, despite strong equities and a gap to close on
Treasuries. The Bund is trading just 3bps cheap to the 10y Note, which has
stayed above 3.15% in throughout Asian and European hours, having traded 25pbs
cheap just a week ago. With no supply and London closed for a bank holiday,
next up the NY Fed will intervene in Treasury markets for the 14th time this
year, looking to buy T-notes maturing between 2016 - 2019
||Reportedly Q1 US states and municipalities borrowings at $53.5B; Refinanced
$31.0B to reduce interest payments and extend maturities
- In Energy: Russia planning new floating 70MW nuclear reactors to provide
power to Gazprom in remote oil exploration. Construction for platforms already
underway and aimed at exploration in the Barents and Kara seas; submersible
nuclear powered drilling rigs also rumored to be designed. Russia
noted that the power stations would store own waste
*** NOTES ***
- Setting up to be an active week on the data front with the RBA, BOE and ECB
making policy decisions. The US bank stress tests are due on Thursday,
- Chinese think tank, State Information
Centre, China's Q2 GDP is seen at 7% v 6.1% in Q1
- Emerging market PMIs manufacturing showing sign of growth (China and India)
while European PMIs bounce off historic lows
Looking Ahead: US Earnings season continue with another heavy week of reports
- 7:00 (EU) ECB's Papademos
- 9:30 (BZ) Brazil Apr PMI Manufacturing: No expectations v 42.2 prior
- 11:00 (US) NY Fed to buyback Notes maturing between 02/29/2016 - 02/15/2019
- Note that Japan is out until Thursday due to Golden Week holidays
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Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
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