dominate.US equities opened strongly, maintaining those
gains to close up 3.2%, with banks up an impressive 18.4%. This despite
Standard & Poor's placing the credit ratings of 23 financial institutions, including
Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, on negative watch, and the
likelihood that the stress tests will say they need more capital. Sidelined
cash appears to be getting itchier, and is jumping on any greenshoots, such as
the better than expected US construction spending and home sales reports
last night. Oil rose 2.3% and copper gained 2.0%. US funding pressures continue
to stabilise, 3mth Libor 1bp lower to 1.01%.
EUR was under pressure during early Europe as the EU revised GDP forecasts for the
Eurozone and countries downwards. Comments from Obama proposing to outlaw
offshore tax avoidance techniques also saw the USD strengthen, and EUR fell a
cent to around 1.3215. It was a different story from the US opening bell, though, and the currency quickly
rallied to the 1.3400 area. USD/JPY's fall was a dampened somewhat by
ex-MOF Sakakibara's comments Japan is in worse shape than the US, and the yen
should weaken to 100-110.
AUD followed EUR down from 0.7380 to 0.7315,
and then US equities up to 0.7400. AUD/NZD rose from around
1.28 to almost 1.29, stalling at 1.2850.
NZD behaved similarly to AUD, making a 0.5770 high,
before consolidating under 0.5750. The lack of follow through on the upside
possibly reflecting New Zealand's narrowing interest rate premium over other
US construction spending rose 0.3% in March, the first gain in six months. The residential
component remained weak - new home construction fell 6.6% in March, and has now
fallen for three years uninterrupted. However, non-residential construction
rose 2.0%, boosting by government spending. The data were stronger than
expected, and suggest an upward revision to the preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP.
home sales rose 3.2% in March,
stronger than expected and the second gain in a row. Data were mixed
regionally, with sales up in the South and West but down in the Northeast and Midwest. Lower prices and an $8k tax credit have
attracted first-time buyers, who accounted for 51% of sales. But it remains a
buyers' market: distressed sales made up about 50% of existing home sales,
compared to 45% in previous months.
Senior Loan Officers' Survey
found that banks continue to tighten their lending standards. Compared to the
January survey, more lenders tightened standards on residential mortgages, but
fewer tightened standards for business and consumer loans. Banks reported that
loan demand weakened in almost every category, with the notable exception of
Commission slashed its growth forecasts for the Eurozone to -4.0% this year and -0.1% next year, broadly
in agreement with the IMF and OECD. Unemployment is expected to reach 11.5%
next year, and slowing growth and rising social security costs are expected to
lift the average fiscal deficit to 6.5% of GDP, with all of the major economies
in breach of the 3% limit set out in the Stability and Growth Pact.
April manufacturing PMI was revised up from 36.7 to 36.8 on the final estimate. While an improvement
from 33.9 in March, it still implies a deep contraction in manufacturing in the
first half of this year.
European investor confidence rose slightly to -34.3 in May, a weaker gain than expected. The current
conditions index fell from -55 to -59, while expectations rose from -12 to -5.
retail sales volumes fell 1.0% in March, much weaker than expected, as rising employment continued to sap
consumer confidence. Car sales, not included in the headline figures, fell by
6.5%, following a 14.6% gain in February as the government introduced a 'cash
for clunkers' incentive to encourage people to buy new cars.
failure of NZD to retest the 0.5620 support level means the balance of
probabilities today favours a test of Thursday's 0.5770 high. Today's ANZ
commodity price report shouldn't trouble the market, being a composite of
already digested information.
Country Release Last Forecast
5 May NZ Apr
ANZ Commodity Prices 1.0% â€“
Dwelling Approvals 7.8% 3.0%
Announcement 3.00% 3.00%
US Apr ISM
Non-Factory Index 40.8 43.0
Eur Mar PPI
%yr â€“1.8% â€“2.8%
UK Apr PMI
Construction 30.9 32.0
6 May NZ Q1
Labour Cost Index Priv Ord Time 0.7% 0.5%
Retail Sales (seas adj) â€“2.0% â€“0.5%
Retail Sales 0.8% 0.2%
Trade Balance AUDbn 2.1 1.7
Speizer, Senior Market Strategist, NZ, Ph: (04) 470 8266
contributions from Westpac Economics
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (4 May)
Economic Overview May 2009 (1 May)
â€¢ NZ Q1
labour market preview (30 April)
â€¢ RBNZ OCR
Review (30 April)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (27 April)
â€¢ RBNZ OCR
Preview (23 April)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.