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Forex Blog -European market Update: Euro-Zone PPI has largest annual drop in over two decades; UK PMI Construction data helps GBP retest the 1.51 handle

Today 05:52am EST/09:52am GMT

European market Update: Euro-Zone PPI has largest annual drop in over two decades; UK PMI Construction data helps GBP retest the 1.51 handle

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (ID) Indonesian Central Bank cuts Reference Rate by 25 bps to 7.25%; As Expected

- (SZ) Swiss Apr SECO Consumer Climate: -38 v -25e

- (NO) Norway Apr PMI SA: 39.8 v 39.5e

- (SP) Spain Apr Net Unemployment M/M: 39.5K v 155Ke

- (SP) Spain Apr Consumer Confidence: 61.9 v 53.7 prior

- (UK) Apr PMI Construction: 38.1 v 31.9e; Largest rise since Jun 2008

- (EU) Euro-Zone PPI M/M: -0.7% v -0.6%e, Y/Y: -3.1% v -2.9%e; Largest annual decline in 22 years

- (SA) South African Q1 Unemployment Rate: 23.5% v 21.9% prior

- (SA) South Africa Apr SACOB Business Confidence: 81.9 v 78.9 prior

- Russia Apr Consumer Prices M/M: 0.7% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 13.2% v 13.6%e; CPI YTD: 6.2% v 6.5%E


*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- In equities: Today's session marked the first time since last Thursday that all European equity markets opened in coordination following a staggered May Day holiday. Despite this coordination in operations, initial results were very different. Gains in futures trading were erased just prior to the cash open with the CAC and DAX falling in negative territory just after the Euro open. Shares with negative Q1 earnings including Adidas [ADS.GE], Metro Ag [MEO.GE] and Alcatel-Lucent [ALU.FR] leading to the downside. In addition, the CAC and DAX sold off from their strong performance in Monday's session seeing gains above 2%. The FTSE100, however, having missed yesterdays rally on both sides of the
Atlantic, opened up +1% and quickly rallied to past the +2% hurdle trading over the 4300 handle. The FTSE saw bullish activity in basic resource names following comments out of Xstrata [XTA.UK] and out performance in the financial sector headlined by RBS [RBS.UK], which did announce of the weekend that its Finance Director would be departing. Financials at a whole moved higher, bucking the trend in the DAX and CAC following the strong NY rally in large cap financial names in Monday's session that was headlined by Wells Fargo [WFC]. Stronger than expected data in Spanish April consumer confidence, German April car sales and UK April PMI pushed the FTSE100 higher at the 5:00EST hr. Strong comments out of Standard Charter added further lightness to the financial sector, especially those with Asian market exposure. The CAC and DAX pushed back to just shy of the unchanged mark while US S&P future contracts rallied at this time as well. Past 5:00ESt, the CAC moved into pos territory with continued strong performance in the financial sector and automotive names. Buying continued into the 5hr with the CAC and DAX rapidly accelerating having broken the unchanged mark, S&P's just before 5:30EST turned positive for calendar year 2009.

- In individual equity news: Alcatel Lucent [ALU.FR] Reports Q1 Net loss €402M v loss €179Me, EBIT loss €254M (adj), Rev €3.60B v €3.60Be, Guides FY09 op income flat y/y, Net debt of €841M as of March 31, Continues to expect global telecommunications equipment and related services market to fall 8-12% at constant currency in 2009. || Metro Ag [MEO.GE] Reports Q1 Net loss €100.0M v loss €50Me, EBIT €84.0M v €103Me, Rev €15.17B v €15.1Be, Food sales marked by significantly declining positive price effects, The global economy is in the deepest recession since the Great Depression. All regions are affected by the downturn. || Standard Charter [STAN.UK] Provides Interim Management Statement: Group has had a strong first quarter, delivering record levels of income and profit. Our own account benefited from strong trading gains largely on the back of client generated transaction flows and effective management of positions in Rates and FX.Asset and Liability Management has had an excellent performance, reflecting high levels of liquidity, but also upward sloping yield curves in a number of our geographies. Impairments for Q1 are seen in line with previous expectations. || Alstom [ALO.FR] Reports FY09 Net €1.1B v €1.13Be, Rev €18.74B v €18.9Be, Backlog €45.7B v €39.2B y/y, Orders received €24.6B v €23.5B y/y. || Hannover Re [HNR1.GE] Reports Q1 Net profit €216.1M v €158Me, EBIT €305.8M v €220Me, Gross premiums €2.66B v €2.60Be, Based on its strategic orientation and the available market opportunities in non-life and life/health reinsurance, Hannover Re anticipates a good result for 2009. At constant exchange rates the net premium volume should grow by approx. 25%. Expects net premium in total non-life reinsurance business to grow by approx. 20% in 2009. || Adidas [ADS.GE] Reports Q1 €5M v €92.9Me Rev €2.58B v €2.56Be, Q1 Gross Margin 45.2% v 49.1% y/y, Q1 Group inventories +18% y/y. || Hypo Real estate [HRX.GE] Reports Q1 Net loss €382M v gain €148M y/y, Pretax loss €406M v €530Me, Q1 markets posed major challenge for the firm,- Q1 loss from financial investments €30M, Q1 trading losses €162M v €33m y/y, Q1 provisions for loan losses/risk positions €262M, Have made significant restructuring operations in Q1, Core capital ratio at 6.3% v 6.2% at end of FY08. ||


- Speakers: SNB's Hildebrand reiterated the prior view that the Swiss central bank must ensure long term price stability. He again commented that
Switzerland could see domestic negative inflation in 2009 and zero inflation levels for the 2010/2011 period. Oil price decline has contributed to deflationary concern sand that facts do not support any accusations of Swiss protectionism measures (in regards to recent SNB currency intervention). Recent data suggested that economic decline was slowing and that the downturn would have been worse without fiscal stimulus programs. || German Fin Min stated that the ECB needed to take action on bad bank assets and that the Govt to apply a narrow definition of such bad assets. He reiterated his opposition to third stimulus package for Germany

||Australian Treasurer Swan commented that the RBA statement following the unchanged interest rate announcement reflected the weakness of global economy. Budget deficits to be prolonged due to contraction in demand || New Zealand Fin Min English commented that New Zealand would not remove its bank deposit guarantees || Reportedly, the Polish Gov't will be cutting its 2009 GDP growth forecast to +0.5% to +1.0% range from prior view of +1.7% growth || Polish Central Banker Trenkner commented that Poland's 2009 GDP might grow around the 1% level. She stated that the MPC should not cut interest rates at its policy meeting later this month. She saw the Polish economy stabilizing within 1 or 2 quarters ||
Sweden's Riksbank April Minutes: Interest rates to remain at a low level until 2011, could adopt alternative measures if economy continues to deteriorate


- In Currencies: || The EUR/USD moved off its overnight highs of 1.3420 seen in
Asia. Dealers noted that risk appetite was behind the support for recent weaker USD and JPY. Overall dealers continue to believe that the Euro gains had lost sight of fundamentals as evident by the EU Commission's lowering of the 2009 and 2010 GDP views. The ECB is expected to cut its key rate by another 25bps at Thursday's policy meeting. The pair tested the 1.3320 level, where technical support provided a consolidation phase for the duration of the morning. The GBP was broadly firmer following better-than-expected PMI contraction data for April. GBP/USD tested above the 1.51 level for the first time since mid-January. EUR/GBP probed closer towards the key technical level of 0.8800 as it printed 0.8846 in the session. The CHF was broadly weaker following comments from SNB's Hildebrand and a weaker Apr SECO consumer climate data. The JPY was mixed in the session. USD/JPY tested the 98.60 level in early Europe before moving back into the 99 area. Renewed dealer chatter circulating that Japan's FSA could reduce leverage on currency trading accounts to curb speculation helped the JPY firm up in late Asian trading. || China's FX regulator SAFE, has published rules aimed at non-resident foreign exchange accounts. The rules are aimed at making it more difficult for speculative "hot money" to flow in and out of the country. Under the proposed rules, Chinese and foreign banks would have to clearly label currency accounts opened by foreign firms and enhance oversight of transactions between these and domestic accounts.


-In Fixed Income: Gilts opened lower partly catching up on Monday's half-point drop in German Bunds after a British public holiday yesterday. Dealers noting that US Treasurys continued to be weighed down by supply concerns. Jun T-Bond futures off 0.3% at 122-06 with the yield at 4.08%.


- In Energy: IPIC to complete Abu Dhabi-Fujairah oil pipeline by 20111 with capacity of 1.5M bpd


*** NOTES ***

- The economic data picture will pick up as the week progresses. BOE and ECB interest rate decision on Thursday; Key U.S. employment data figures Wed through Fri

- WSJ: US expected to direct about 10 banks of the 19 stress tested to increase capital

- Bank stress tests due Thursday. Will 10 of 19 need capital as the article suggests?

- Australia RBA left their interest rates unchanged and hinted that its easing cycle might be over at this time.

- AIG is said that its Quarterly results would reportedly not include a capital request and woiuld not need Govt cash for Q1

- GM April China sales up 50% y/y to 151.1K vehicles.

-
Tokyo index of office rents drops for first time in 4 years and its largest decline in 13 years.

- Renewed chatter that Japan's FSA plans to reduce leverage in currency trading from 100 times leverage to around 30 times leverage in an effort to curb speculation



- Looking Ahead: More US earnings with Archer Daniels [ADM]; Constellation Energy [CEG]; CVS Caremark [CVS]; Duke Energ [DUK]; Emerson [EMR]; Kraft [KFT]; Molson Coors [TAP]; Weyerhaeuser [WY] expected to report ahead of the NY opening bell

- 6:45 (US) Fed's Rosengren speaks in Hong Kong

- 8:00 (BR) Brazil Mar Industrial Production M/M: 1.3% expected v 1.8% prior, Y/Y: -9.7% expected v -17.0% prior

- 10:00 (UK) BoE to buy back £3.5B in 2020 - 2027 Gilts

- 10:00 (US) Fed's Bernanke apprears before House joint Economic Committee

- 1:00 (US) Treasury to sell $35B 3y Notes in re-opening

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
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All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
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