- In equities: Global equity and futures markets took a beating at 21:30EST
when news leaked that US based Bank of America [BAC] may need to raise up to
$35B in capital to fill balance sheet wholes as a result of US Treasury stress
test results. The European pre-market saw a flurry of corporate news with large
cap firms including BNP Paribas [BNP.FR], Total [FP.FR], Lafarge [LG.FR], BMW
[BMW.GE], Deutsche Post [DPW.GE] and Munich Re [MUV2.GE] (amongst others)
providing Q1 results. Analyst beating net and rev numbers at BNP Paribas shook
some negative sentiment out of the financial sector and bullish comments from
the CEO of Deutsche Post regarding a recovery in mail volumes add mixed
sentiment to premarket trading. European equity futures opened to the downside but
quickly paired losses on the back of solid Q1 earnings. At the open of equity
trading, the CAC, DAX and FTSE100 all opened slightly to the downside on mixed
trading. The CAC40, based on strength in BNP and Alcatel-Lucent [ALU.FR]
(following an upgrade at Goldman) moved into positive territory just past the
open with the FTSE100 dipping above and below that mark through the first hour
of operations. As expected, Bank of America in Frankfurt
trading [NCB.GE] moved significantly to the downside on the open, trading in a
range of approx -15%. At 4:00EST, Euro zone PMI numbers ahead of expectation
and positive comments out the Halifax regarding UK home price rallied European
markets. The DAX30 moved out of negative territory and the CAC40 accelerated
its lighter tone, surpassing the FTSE100 as the leading mover to the positive
side. UK listed
stocks paired gains in the 4:00EST hour as their continental rivals continued
to push forward, the CAC40 trading on volume 35% higher than average following
the large volume of Q1 earnings releases. Markets largely ignored below
expectation Euro-zone retail figures that set new record lows, and a strong
German bid to cover on its Bobl supply pushed equity markets to new session
highs +50% to +1% across the board. As the New York market developed, markets
again turned mixed as another wave of corporate earnings out of the US are
expected to dictate US premarket sentiment along with the US April Challenger
job cuts which is expected at 7:30EST
- In Individual Stocks: In individual stocks: Bank of America[ BAC] Reportedly
may need to raise up to $34B (49% of market cap). Follow Up as of : NYT reports that Bank of America
needs $33.9B. Follow Up as of :
WSJ reports that Bank of America needs $35B, US
government stress test found large gaps in the firm's capital level. || BNP
Paribas [BNP.FR] Reports Q1 Net 1.65B v â‚¬1.3Be. Rev â‚¬9.48B v â‚¬7.5Be, Q1 AUM
â‚¬510B (+1.3% q/q), Q1 Net asset inflows +â‚¬13.4B, Q1 Tier 1 ratio 8.8% v 7.8%
q/q, Q1 Doubtful loans and commitments â‚¬19.2B v â‚¬16.4B q/q, Q1 Allowance for
loan losses â‚¬16.2B v â‚¬15.0B q/q. The outlook for the global banking sector
remains uncertain, in spite of a recent rebound in markets. || Lafarge [LG.FR]
Reports Q1 Net Loss â‚¬17M v Loss â‚¬18Me, Rev â‚¬3.6B v â‚¬3.6Be, states it is
difficult to make forecasts due to high economic uncertainty. The economic
slowdown and worse weather conditions negatively impacted volumes and margins.
Q1 Cement sales -9% y/y, Q1 Aggregates & concrete sales -11% y/y, Q1
Gypsium sales -12% y/y. || BMW Group [BMW.GE] Reports Q1 Net loss â‚¬152M v loss
â‚¬180Me, EBIT loss â‚¬55M v loss â‚¬275Me, Rev â‚¬11.5B v â‚¬10.8Be. Cannot provide
reliable FY09 outlook; reiterates FY09 sales will not match last year's levels.
Reduced automobiles division working capital by â‚¬1.08B in Q1. Aims to maintain,
build market share in premium segment this year. Group liquidity stood at â‚¬10B
at end of Q1. || Deutsche Post World [DPW.GE] Reports Q1 Net profit â‚¬944M v
â‚¬219Me, Rev â‚¬11.5B v â‚¬11.8Be. Revenue in the MAIL Division -4.5% y/y, Revenue
in the EXPRESS Division -25.9% y/y, Europe Rev -16.9% y/y, Asia-Pacific Rev rev
-6.7% y/y. || Munich RE [MUV2.GE] Reports Q1 Net Profit â‚¬420M v â‚¬399Me, Rev
â‚¬10.3B v â‚¬10.1Be, Increases premium forecast for 2009, continues to refrain
from share buyback. Sees further improvement in prices, terms and conditions in
reinsurance. || Ahold [AH.NV] Reports Q1 Rev â‚¬8.7B v â‚¬8.6Be. Remains well
positioned to meet customer needs and to respond to competition in the current
turbulent economic environment. ||
- Speakers: ECB source reportedly stated that the ECB had no consensus on
non-standard tools at this week's policy meeting. The 'source' commented that
the majority of ECB members viewed the 1.0% as the floor in its refi rate.
There was no consensus among central bank members on purchasing either
government bonds or corporate paper in its non-standard tools. It was most
likely that the ECB would extend refinancing to banks || SNB's Jordan
commented that it was too early of any final assessment on unconventional tools
but early signs are positive. SNB to act decisively if necessary on Swiss Franc
|| China's PBoC
reiterated the view that its economy would see fast and stable growth and the
central bank stated it would ensure ample liquidity remained available to
support growth . The PBoC cautioned that the foundation for recovery was not
yet firm but Q1 GDP did improved over Q4. It would maintain the
"Moderately Loose" monetary policy and sought continued exchange rate
flexibility. It saw currency depreciation risk for many key currencies,
including USD || Norway PM commented that low interest rates were keeping the
NOK currency weak but that it did keep investment costs down || EU Business
group stated that it saw the ECB cutting interest rates by 25bps at this week's
policy meeting (in line with analyst consensus views)
|| Thailand Fin Min stated that the Thai Gov't approved the THB 800B borrowing
plan to finance its fiscal stimulus plan
- In Currencies: The session began with another bout of risk aversion following
the report that Bank of America [BAC] needed another $35B in capital. However,
the BNP.FR results soothed over the initial fears. EUR/USD was holding below
former hourly support of 1.3330 as the NY morning approaches but off its worst level
of 1.3250. GBP continued to be helped by improving UK
data. GBP/USD was back above the 1.51 mark after UK PMI services data. JPY sawn
most of its late Asian gains erode as the European morning progressed. EUR/JPY
tested below the 130 level before recovering back above 131.
-In Fixed Income: Ahead of the Treasury's $22B 10y note refunding and reverse
auction from both the BOE and NY Fed, supply has been well received in Europe.
â‚¬4.9B in 5y OBLs, with the bid-to cover of 1.6 times above the previous 1.3 and
the Bundesbank retaining 18% of the total offering, slightly below the previous
auction. The UK
sold Â£3.5B in 10y Gilts in a robust auction, covered 2.5 times and with a yield
tail of just 0.2bps. Some high profile corporate issuance was priced with
Volkswagen and Sanofi Aventis selling â‚¬3B worth of bonds each, and Renault
selling â‚¬750M in an offering reportedly 8 times oversubscribed. Three month
Euribor fixed at a new low of 1.33%, whilst â‚¬ swap spreads have narrowed by
almost 2bps to sit below 45bps, their lowest levels since Oct 2007 || Austria
Debt Agency raises 2009 total issuance to â‚¬28B-â‚¬33B from prior range of â‚¬24B-
- In Energy: Saudi Aramco stated that $60-70/bbl in oil was needed for marginal
producers. Saudi Arabian oil output was 8M bpd, with no immediate expectations
of production cut. To meet end of June target for raising Arabian oil capacity
to 12.5M bpd.
*** NOTES ***
- Dealers thinking back about Fed's Bernanke comments on Tuesday about the
warning growth outlook could be hampered if credit markets relapsed. Thus BAC
now needs $35B above the earlier speculation of a $10B.
- PBOC: Growth expected to be 7%-8% 2009 & 2010. Sees FX depreciation risk
for key currencies, including USD
- Fed's Yellen: Recent rise in Treasury yields reflects optimistic news on
economy but does not see a "V" shape recovery
- The slew of PMI data continues to show improvement. European PMI came above
services PMI hit 6 month highs
- Looking Ahead: More Corporate earnings: The first of a series of US emplyment
data. April ADP private jobs estimate early Wed. Forecast of -635K v -742K
prior month|| BOE and ECB policy decisions Thursday. Focus on ECB policy and
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e May 1st: No expectations v -18.1%
- 7:30 (US) Apr Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y: No expectations v 180.7% prior
- 8:00 (NO) Norwegian Deposit Rates: 50bps cut to 1.50% expected, current
deposit rate is 2.00%
- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Building Permits M/M: 2.3% expected v -15.9% prior
- 11:00 (US) NY Fed to buyback Treasuries maturing between 03/31/2011 -
- 1:00 (US) Treasury to sell $22B in 10y Notes
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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