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Thursday May 20, 2004 - 10:48:08 GMT -

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Euro Intraday Studies in Oversold Territory

Daily Forex Technical Report 5-20-2004

Euro Intraday Studies in Oversold Territory
Sell off in Dollar Yen Stalls at Fibo Support

Technical Outlook

More consolidation in the EURUSD as the pair trades between interim support at 1.1940, the 38.2% fibo of 1.1725-1.2060 / May 12th low / 10-day EMA / 20-day SMA and 1.2060, the 50-day SMA / May 17th high. The series of contracting ranges suggest that the pair appears poised for a break over the next few trading sessions. Intraday studies are in oversold territory giving bulls a reason to position for an upward break of the trendline resistance. A move above 1.2060 exposes the May 5th high at 1.2180. Bears will look to enter on a move below 1.1940, targeting 1.1760, the lower Bollinger / April-26 low / 2-yr bull channel support. Wednesday's sell off in USDJPY stalled right at 112.40, the former March 5th top / May 12th low and 50% fibo support from the Aug-April bear wave. The uptrend remains intact until this level is broken, although yesterday's high and trendline resistance at 114.40 is the first barrier that bulls will need to push beyond for the pair to make a concerted effort to test the former head and shoulders neckline at 115. However, with volatility at such elevated levels, there is a high likelihood of consolidation and retracement after the break and stalling at 116, the 138.2% fibo from the Mar bear wave and 120 July highs. Below, bears should wait for the break of the former March 8th breakout point to reinforce the potential for a move lower. The next significant levels of support below 112.40 are 111.07, the April 29th high and 110.50, the 38.2% fibo of 103.40-114.92. The 240-pip rally to the descending triangle trendline resistance in the GBPUSD indicates that the expansion in volatility is weak at best. The pair is flirting with immediate support at 1.7715, the 10-day SMA and May 18th high. A break below that level would give shorts the opportunity to target the lower Bollinger at 1.7542 and then the 200-day SMA at 1.7375. Aggressive bulls are expected to step in around the lower Bollinger. A move above yesterday's high at 1.7860 makes 1.8000 vulnerable, but given the medium term down trend, bears will find this level a particularly attractive opportunity to renew shorts. USDCHF continues to consolidate between the 100-day SMA and the 50, 10 & 20-day moving average confluence above. Despite the series of higher lows, bulls will need to amass a significant amount of strength in order to break above 1.2930/40, the 20-day SMA and 61.8% fibo 1.3085-1.2700. Even if that level is taken, the 200-day SMA and psychological resistance at 1.3000 will attract a good number of renewed shorts. A close above the 1.3100 former highs would be needed to negate short-term bearish momentum and give bulls an opportunity to target a move towards 1.3200, the 50% fibo of Aug-Jan bear wave / upper Bollinger and 1.3230, the 4/26 high. Bears will also look to sell on a break of 1.2690/1.2700, the lower Bollinger and 100-day SMA.


Comment from 04/28
On 04/12 AUD/JPY had a high at 81.45 before a retracement to the 79.18 Low on 04/14, 227pts lower. The pair has been stuck in a messy consolidation since our last comment and since we are still sitting on interesting S, the outlook remains slightly bullish. Bulls will however remain cautious since the Aussie seems to struggle. 78.70/79 seems like the first decent entry for dip buyers thanks to the Low BB, 200 SMA and LT trend S. Below, 77.40/80 might be interesting thanks to the 50% Fibo from the Mar 03 - Mar 04 bull wave. As long as 77.50 holds,bears will have few choices. However, reversal players will probably try something at 81.50/80 in order to exploit the 100 SMA, High BB and a strong Fibo confluence (50% Fibo from the Mar bear wave & 23.6% Fibo from the Mar 03 - Mar 04 bull wave).

On 04/29 AUDJPY had a low at 78.86 before a rally to the 80.26 High on 05/04, 140pts higher. On 05/15 the cross had a low at 77.72. A rally to yesterday's High at 79.18 occurred (146pts). Aussie's failure to make new highs and a clear contraction gives weight the bears' case. Aggressive players will use 79.80/80.10 to launch fresh shorts and exploit the 50 SMA and 50% Fibo from the Nov - Feb bull wave. If a sustained breakout above the area occur, bulls will get involved in pullbacks to the zone and 84 will the be the next stop. Bears will however probably try to get in at 81.60/82.20 to catch the typical breakout/retracement momentum. A strong Fibo confluence will in fact provide R at the level (50% Fibo from the Feb - May bear wave & 23.6% Fibo from the Mar03 - Feb04 bull wave). Finally, bulls will have few choices but reversal players will certainly not miss 77.10/40 thanks to the low BB and 50% Fibo from the Mar03 - Feb04 bull wave.


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