More bears growing horns. Some US bank stress test headline results
managed to reach the media last night (despite the official release being
tonight), and they were not as dire as the market expected. Several banks
(Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Bank of NY) were said to be sound enough not to
require new capital, and those which do, such as Citigroup and Wells Fargo,
need much less than expectations had priced in. Yesterday's news that BofA
needs $34 billion was perversely followed by a 16% rise in its shares last
night. The S&P500 closed up 1.2%, banks having another stellar performance
EUR failed to follow equities higher, possibly
weighed by concerns the ECB may at least start talking about QE at tonight's
policy meeting, and Standard & Poor's cutting the ratings on five German
landesbanks. A range of 1.3270 to 1.3370 contained action. GBP, on the
other hand, found support at 1.50 to launch a move higher to 1.5140.
AUD gained over a cent to 0.7500 and made a new
2009 high as risk buyers targeted this particular currency, both against the
USD as well as the EUR. Yesterday's strong retail sales and trade number
NZD failed to keep pace with the AUD, gaining half
a cent to around 0.5850. Yesterday's March statement of government finances
reminded the market of the hole expected in the 28 May budget. AUD/NZD gained
from 1.2750 to 1.2850, but has slipped in the past few hours to under 1.2800.
US ADP private payrolls down 491k in
Apr. This compares to a revised
708k fall (was 742k) in Mar. Despite a methodology revamp a few months ago, ADP
does not yet have a reliable track record as a predictor of surprise monthly
payrolls outcomes. So we are not revising our forecast of a 650k April payrolls
decline, although risks that we see a smaller fall have increased somewhat.
Also on the labour market, corporate layoff announcements were up 47% yr in
Euroland April PMI services revised
higher. The services PMI was
revised up from the flash estimate of 43.1 to 43.8. However March retail sales
fell 0.6%, the sixth consecutive month of decline.
UK house prices down 1.7% in April. The HBoS measure was weaker than the Nationwide
BS house price index for April, which only fell 0.4%. The annual pace of decline
of the HBoS index is now -17.7% yr, from -147.5% yr in Mar. In other news, the
PMI services rose from 45.5 to 48.7 in April, another sign that the economy
might be contracting at a slower pace heading into Q2.
Stronger than expected Canadian
data. The Ivey PMI survey
jumped from 43.2 to 53.7 in April, a month when it normally declines. Building
permits surged 23.5% in March after five consecutive declines in Oct-Feb.
Non-res jumped 48% but residential was up only 5%.
The Q1 unemployment rate reported this morning
is expected to be 5.3% (from 4.7%), although a much worse number would be
needed to pressure NZD. Global sentiment remains strong, and dominates local
fundamentals as far as driving the NZD goes. Today's resistance at 0.5870 is
vulnerable, pointing to 0.5900.
Speizer, Senior Market Strategist, NZ, Ph: (04) 470 8266
contributions from Westpac Economics
Release Last Forecast
NZ Q1 HLFS
Employment 0.9% â€“1.2%
Unemployment 4.7% 5.3%
Employment chg â€“34.7k â€“18k
Rate 5.7% 5.8%
Productivity % annâ€™lsd â€“0.4% 0.0%
Labour Costs % annâ€™lsd 5.7% 2.8%
Jobless Claims w/e 2/5 631k 640k
Store Sales %yr â€“2.1% â€“
Consumer Credit $bn â€“7.5 â€“4.0
Bernanke, Evans, Yellen
Eur ECB Repo
Rate Decision 1.25% 1.00%
Factory Orders â€“3.5% â€“4.0%
UK BoE Rate
Decision 0.50% 0.50%
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (4 May)
Economic Overview May 2009 (1 May)
â€¢ NZ Q1
labour market preview (30 April)
â€¢ RBNZ OCR
Review (30 April)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 12 Mar 2018 A 17:00 US- 3-Yr Auction Tue 13 Mar 2018 A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey AA 12:30 US- CPI A 17:00 US- 10-Yr Auction Wed 14 Feb 2018 AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 17:00 US- 30-Yr Auction Thu 15 Mar 2018 A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless A 12:30 US- Philly Fed, Empire PMI A 12:15 US- Industrial Production Fri 16 Mar 2018 A 10:00 EZ- final HICP A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits A 14:00 US- prelim Univ of Mich
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.