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Friday May 8, 2009 - 09:59:36 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Rising Risk Appetite continues money rotation from bonds into equities; US Payroll data to be session highlight

Today 05:52am EST/09:52am GMT

European Market Update: Rising Risk Appetite continues money rotation from bonds into equities; US Payroll data to be session highlight


- (SZ) Swiss Apr Unemployment Rate: 3.5% v 3.5%e; Unemployment Rate SA: 3.4% v 3.4%e

- (FI) Finland Mar Industrial Production M/M: 2.1% v -0.6%e, Y/Y: -16.5% v -20.5%e

- (GE) German Mar Trade Balance: €11.3B v €8.0Be; Current Account: €10.2B v €7.0Be

- (TU) Turkish Mar Industrial Production: -20.9% v -22.8%e

- (SW) Swedish Apr Budget Balance: -SEK2.4B v -SEK3.0B prior

- (NO) Norway March Industrial Manufacturing M/M: -0.6% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: -2.8% v -2.3%e

-- (NO) Norway March Industrial Production M/M: -2.7% v 2.2% prior; Y/Y: -1.6% v 2.5% prior

- (UK) April PPI Input M/M: -1.0% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: -5.0% v -3.5%e; lowest since July 2002

- (UK) April PPI Output M/M: 0.6% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 0.7%e; lowest since Apr 2004

- (UK) April PPI Output Core M/M: 0.4% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.3%e

- (GE) German March Industrial Production M/M: % v -1.3%e; Y/Y: % v -1.3%e


- In equities: European Equity markets extended their streak of positive opens across the board followed by a strong pre-market session in which DAX30 futures outperformed on the back earnings out of Commerzbank [CBK.GE] moving those shares higher. Financials remain the name of the game following finalized Stress Test results and cap raise levels out of the US Treasury (see backlogged headlines for full details). Strength in financial names in the NY after-market rolled over into the Asian trading session and has pushed through into Europe. US dual listed firms, including Citi [TRV.GE] and BoA [NCB.GE] have all shown strength in Frankfurt trading. While earnings flows were down on a day/day basis, a significant flow was still seen in the Euro pre-market with financial names RBS [RBS.UK] and Commerzbank [CBK.GE] releasing mixed statements, but trading higher on general sector strength. Outperformance in basic resource names has continued on the back of rises in hard commodity and energy prices with names such as Xstrata [XTA.UK] and Lonmin [LMI.UK] moving higher. Other movers include some of the heavy manufacturers such as ArcelorMittal [MT.NV], ThysenKrupp [TKA.GE] and E.On [EOAN.GE] on the back of continued economic optimism and risk appetite. Equity markets exhibited choppy tendencies, rising from the open to their then highs by 3:35EST, then paring gains to trade below the +1% mark. Stronger than expected UK April PPI Outputs rallied markets from their slide returning to their best levels by 5:00EST in the case of the CAC and DAX. With a lighter US corporate earnings calendar for the day, key trading out of Stress Test rated banks and the expected US April Non-farm payroll are expected to dominate NY morning news flow.

- In individual equities: *STRESS TEST RESULTS: 10 BANKS NEED TO RAISE $74.6B IN CUMULATIVE CAPITAL: BAC needs $33.9B, CITI needs $5.5B, WFC needs $13.7B, GMAC needs $11.5B, MS needs $1.8B, STI Needs $2.2B, PNC Needs $600M, KEY needs $1.8B, RF needs $2.5B, FITB needs $1.1B, GS, JPM, AXP, BBT, BK, COF, MET, STT, USB does not need capital. ||Commerzbank [CBK.GE] Reports Q1 Net loss €861M v loss €814.3Me, Pretax loss €880M v loss 767Me, € Rev €2.33B v €2.3Be, Q1 Core capital 6.8% v 10.1% y/y, Q1 Tier 1 ratio 10.9% v 13.9% y/y, ROE -15.1% v 8.4% y/y, Default exposure €729B, with losses projected at €1.98B. || RBS[ RBS.UK] Reports Q1 Pretax loss £44.0M v £479M y/y, Adj Op Profit £4.1B v £2.86B y/y, Rev £9.7B v £7.7B y/y, Q1 Writedowns £4.9B, Q1 Tier 1 ratio 6.7% v 7.5% q/q, Q1 impairment losses £2.86B v £656M y/y, Q1 Credit market write-downs £2.07B v £2.02B y/y, Q1 Monoline writedowns £2.1B. || 3I [III.UK] Reports FY08 Net loss €1.95B v loss £1.8Be; Confirms rights issue at 135p/shr, seeking to raise £700M (48% of market cap), Total AUM at £8B v £9.8B y/y, Total NAV/share at £4.96 v £10.77 y/y. || Puma [PUM.GE] Reports Q1 Net (ex items) €81M v €75.7Me, Rev €697M v €676Me, Q1 Gross Margin 52.1% v 53.4 %y.y, Market environment expected to remain difficult in 2009 and the year would be one of consolidation with a clear focus on adjusting the cost basis. Positive signs in markets not expected until 2010 when World cup begins. Current restructuring costs are seen at €110M. || Endesa [ELE.SP] Reports Q1 Net €509M v €548Me, EBITDA €1.73B v €1.7Be. || Repsol [REP.SP] Reports Q1 Net profit €401M v €333Me (ex

- Speakers: IMF commented that recent Chinese economic indicators appear 'very encouraging' but additional data is necessary to see a clearer picture || ECB's Bini Smaghi reiterated the press conference view that 1.0% interest rate may not necessarily be the minimum rate. He did note that the Euro-Zone economy was improving. || German Econ Min Guttenberg commented that he did not expect its economy to recover quickly once it reached bottom but that the recent manufacturing and exports data were good signs. || German Fin Min Steinbrueck commented that the first stage of bad bank issue to be discussed next week || Reportedly South Africa's Fin Min Manuel will not return in role under new administration

- In Currencies: The rising risk appetite theme continued to undermine the sentiment of the USD ahead of the US employment report. EUR/USD was holding above the 1.34 handle but continued to face some resistance ahead of the 200-day moving average at 1.3456.

-In Fixed Income: Government Bond markets, the chief beneficiary of doomsday scenarios in recent months, continue to suffer from fast money rotation into riskier asset classes. The Bund printed its highest yield of 2009 in early European trade at 3.44% and the US 10y Note also touched new 2009 highs at 3.343%. Yield curves in Germany and the UK also registered new steepening highs above 250pbs and 207pbs respectively ||Government debt futures are lower, with Bunds underperforming after yesterday's ECB and BoE decisions. June 10-year Bund future were down 50 ticks on the day at 12.43, while the corresponding Gilt future was off 43 ticks at 118.51. In the cash market the 10-year Bund yield is up 5 bps at 3.43% and the 10-year Gilt yield was up 6 bps at 3.73%.

- In Energy: Reportedly, China has canceled a plan to increase the ceiling retail price for gasoline and diesel from today and no reason for the decision was not disclosed. According to prior reports, China was expected to increase gasoline prices by CNY520/metric ton and diesel prices by CNY500/ton.

*** NOTES ***

- The week has been characterized by a sense of a growing risk appetite. The US employment could cement the view that the 'worst' of the economic downturn could be behind us.

- Bank stress tests contained no big surprises. Trader chatter centers on where will the money come from and pondering the consequences if a bank is unable to obtain the funding.

- Looking Ahead:

- 7:00 (CA) Canadian Apr Unemployment Rate: 8.3% expected v 8.0% prior

- 7:00 (CA) Canadian Apr Net Change in Employment: -50.0k expected v -61.3k prior

- 8:30 (US) April Nonfarm Payrolls : -600k expected versus -663K prior)

- 8:30 (US) Apr Unemployment Rate: 8.9% expected versus 8.5% prior

- 8:30 (US) Apr Manufacturing Payrolls: -155K expected versus -161K priors

- 8:30 (US) Apr Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.2% expected versus 0.2% prior; Average Weekly Hours: 33.2 expected versus 33.2 prior

-10:00 (US) March Wholesale Inventories (last -1.5%)


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