- In equities: Equity markets opened effectively flat following last Fridays
gains in erratic and volatile range trading. News flow over the weekend
dominated the European pre-market with deals news out Centrica [CAN.UK] and EDF
[EDF.FR] and a rival bid entering the Barclays [BARC.UK] iShares sale offer.
Capital raise plans from Commerzbank [CBK.GE], Lonmin [LMI.UK] added negative
weight to the names in early trading. Continued questions regarding the overall
health of the European and global banking system continue to be kicked around
by pundits and further weight to the days trading had originated with the
return of 'bear market' rally commentary, analyzing the steep rally since early
March as potentially over bought and correction prone. By 3:30EST markets
continued their heavy tone with the CAC and DAX below the -1% mark. Data out of
the UK , including inflation and unemployment later in the trading week being
pointed out as potentially down side indicating information
on the true level of recovery, or stabilization in global markets. Overall
sector performance remained mixed as shares within sectors diverged on news
flows and sentiment out of the US.
By 4:00EST, markets had found an initial bottom and began paring losses with
the CAC and DAX pushing back to above the -1% hurdle. HSBC [HSBA.UK] released
its H1 interim trading statement and markets took a brief moment of relief on
the positive statements out of the bank. These gains were quickly paired and
broad weight returned to the equity environment with the FTSE, CAC and DAX all
at or near their worst levels by 5:00EST.
- In individual Equities: HSBC [HSBA.UK] Provides interim statement: Resilient
start to year; in line with expectations. Tier 1 cap 9.9%, Core Tier 1 8.6%, Q1
loan impairments charges lower than Q4, Q1 impairments in US slightly lower
than planned, Q1 deficit on the asset-backed securities available-for-sale
reserve balance reduced by US$0.7B to US$18.0B. Loan impairment charges and
other credit risk provisions rose in Q1 2009 in all customer groups and
regions. || Barclays [BARC.UK] BC Partners, a private equity firm, has made a
Â£3.5B bid for iShares, which could unravel a deal to sell the unit to CVC
Capital Partners for Â£3B - Sunday Times. Bid comes under the 45 day 'go-shop'
provision; CVC Capital is still allowed to match the higher bid. Reminder: On
April 9 -Confirms agreement to sell Barclays Global Fund Advisors (iShares
unit) to CVC Capital Partners for $4.4B (Â£3.3B). || Centrica [CAN.UK]Provides
Interim Management Statement - sees FY earnings in line with expectations (FY09
Net Â£1.1Be, EBITDA Â£2.8Be). Â£2.3 billion cost of the investment in British
Energy will be funded by approximately Â£1.1 billion in cash and the disposal of
Centrica's 51% stake in SPE to EDF for â‚¬1.325 billion. || BT Group [BT] Could
lower its final dividend to zero - London Telegraph. The company's pretax
profit is seen at around Â£550M, which is a decline from Â£2B y/y. || Lonmin
[LMI.UK] Reports H1 Operating Loss $142M v Loss $54Me, Rev $436M v $434.0Me,
announces 2 for 9 rights issue to raise $457M (18.2% of enlarged share
capital). || ICAP [IAP.UK] Offers Â£830M in cash for LCH Clearnet - FT. Company
has been rumoured as a bidder for LCH Clearnet as far back as February. || Tui
Ag [TUI1.GE] Reports Q1 Adj EBITA Loss â‚¬324M v loss â‚¬285Me, Rev â‚¬3.08B v â‚¬3.14Be.
Trading since last update remains robust, with volumes in the last eight weeks
tracking ahead of the cumulative position. Says remains well placed to meet the
board's expectations for the year ended Sept
30, 2009. ||
- Speakers: ECB's Ordonez commented that he saw certain improvements in 'soft'
economic indicators and reiterated the view that Q1 GDP in Eurozone was the
bottom. Central Banks need to maintain caution on any economic outlook. He
reiterated the central bank's view that does not see any big risk of deflation
in Eurozone and added that there was also no inflation risk in foreseeable
future || Iceland Central Bank commented that Euro adoption is seen as
possibility within 4 years, but FX stability remains its priority || Investor
George Soros commented that the USD was already weak, and would not likely lose
further ground against Euro. Soros believes Germany
should no longer reject notion of EU bonds. He saw Asia
as the region to recover first from global crisis and that China
would replace the US
as engine of global growth || French Fin Min Lagarde noted that Q1 GDP figures
likely to be bad , to revise its 2009 forecast before. She reiterated that
French banks are adequately capitalized || German Econ Min Guttenberg
reiterated the view that its economy is seen bottoming towards end of 2009 ||
Saudi Fin Min: Does not expect drop in USD significance over coming years ||
BoJ to set aside 15% of profits for reserves purposes from its prior 5% ratio.
- In Currencies: The USD managed to stem its bearish momentum against the
European pairs in the session after opening weaker in Asia.
Initial reaction among European dealers is that the recent moves in equities,
fixed income and currencies might be a little oversubscribed. Some weekend
press articles regarding the potential crisis in the financial markets were not
over and that US banks won concessions on stress tests data.
- The EUR/USD tested above the 1.3650 level last tested just ahead of the G20
summit on April 2nd. The pair moved below the 1.3590 level as the NY morning
approached. The JPY exhibited broad-based strength in the session, gain 80 pips
against the USD to test 97.75, and firmer against its European counterparts
with EUR/JPY at 133.00 after probing towards 135 area in Asia.
GBP/JPY off over 220 pips to trade at 148.00 after being above 150 earlier
today. || In recent session the USD had encountered some weakness as global
risk appetite rose. The IMM data revealed that speculative accounts have
registered a net USD short position for the first time since July
-In Fixed Income: Government bonds are bid in light volumes this morning in Europe,
with yield curves experiencing some corrective bull flattening. The yield on
the 10y Bund back to 3.41%, the yield on the 10y Gilt is back to 3.67% and the
yield on the 10y Note is back below 3.28%, Ahead of the NY Fed's long end
repurchase, the Long Bond yield is about 5pbs lower at 4.22% at the time of
writing. In corporates, Banco Santander announced plans to issue a â‚¬1.5B 5y
covered bond whilst UBS is reportedly planning its own Euro
- In Energy: Norway Preliminary April oil production: 1.99M bpd v 2.15M bpd
prior month || South Korean Presidential Aide commented that the county might
join 5 oil fields exploration in Uzbekistan || Iran OPEC Governor Mohammad Ali
Khatibi stated that he e Expected OPEC either to cut or hold output steady
during May 28 meeting. He saw OPEC compliance between 85% to 90% ||
*** NOTES ***
- Global Central Bankers cautiously optimistic on economy
- Traders debate ranges on whether equity markets are in bear market rally or
if the rebound is for real.
- China Premier
Wen said the government's policy response to the economic crisis goes far
beyond its CNY4T stimulus package, new measures are seen emerging steadily
through the year
- NYT comments on the US
credit card market noting that millions of Americans will not be able to pay
off their debts.
- WSJ: Banks won concessions on stress tests. Fed switched measurement of bank
capital levels and scaled back the size of capital shortfall following 2 weeks
- Looking Ahead:
- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Mar New Housing Price Index M/M: -0.5% expected v -0.7%
- 10:00 (UK) BOE to repurchase Â£3.5B Gilts maturing between 2020 - 2032
-11:00 (US) NY Fed to conduct buyback of T-Bonds maturing between 08/15/2026 -
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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