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Forex Blog - European market Update: Market debates the degree of risk appetite sentiment

Today 05:53am EST/09:53am GMT

European market Update: Market debates the degree of risk appetite sentiment


- (CH) China April Money Supply M2 Y/Y: 26.0% v 25.3%e

- (FR) French Mar Industrial Production M/M: -1.4% v -0.5%e, Y/Y: -16.1% v -14.6%e

- (FR) French Mar Manufacturing Production M/M: -1.1% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: -17.7% v -16.1%e

- (DE) Danish Mar Current Account: DKK v DKK0.0B prior, Trade Balance X Ship: DKK v DKK1.8B prior

- (DE) Danish Apr CPI M/M: % v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: % v 1.8% prior;

- (DE) Apr CPI EU Harmonized M/M: % v 0.4% prior, Y/Y: % v 1.6% prior

- (IT) Italian Mar Industrial Production M/M: % v -2.0%e; Y/Y: % v -21.0%e ; NSA Y/Y: % v -18.8 expected

- (NO) Norway Apr CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.9% v 2.8%e

- (NO) Norway Apr CPI Underlying M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.6%e

- (NO) Norway Apr PPI (includes oil) M/M: -0.6% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: -4.7% v -0.3% prior


- In equities: Equity markets opened effectively flat following last Fridays gains in erratic and volatile range trading. News flow over the weekend dominated the European pre-market with deals news out Centrica [CAN.UK] and EDF [EDF.FR] and a rival bid entering the Barclays [BARC.UK] iShares sale offer. Capital raise plans from Commerzbank [CBK.GE], Lonmin [LMI.UK] added negative weight to the names in early trading. Continued questions regarding the overall health of the European and global banking system continue to be kicked around by pundits and further weight to the days trading had originated with the return of 'bear market' rally commentary, analyzing the steep rally since early March as potentially over bought and correction prone. By 3:30EST markets continued their heavy tone with the CAC and DAX below the -1% mark. Data out of the UK , including inflation and unemployment later in the trading week being pointed out as potentially down side indicating information on the true level of recovery, or stabilization in global markets. Overall sector performance remained mixed as shares within sectors diverged on news flows and sentiment out of the US. By 4:00EST, markets had found an initial bottom and began paring losses with the CAC and DAX pushing back to above the -1% hurdle. HSBC [HSBA.UK] released its H1 interim trading statement and markets took a brief moment of relief on the positive statements out of the bank. These gains were quickly paired and broad weight returned to the equity environment with the FTSE, CAC and DAX all at or near their worst levels by 5:00EST.

- In individual Equities: HSBC [HSBA.UK] Provides interim statement: Resilient start to year; in line with expectations. Tier 1 cap 9.9%, Core Tier 1 8.6%, Q1 loan impairments charges lower than Q4, Q1 impairments in US slightly lower than planned, Q1 deficit on the asset-backed securities available-for-sale reserve balance reduced by US$0.7B to US$18.0B. Loan impairment charges and other credit risk provisions rose in Q1 2009 in all customer groups and regions. || Barclays [BARC.UK] BC Partners, a private equity firm, has made a £3.5B bid for iShares, which could unravel a deal to sell the unit to CVC Capital Partners for £3B - Sunday Times. Bid comes under the 45 day 'go-shop' provision; CVC Capital is still allowed to match the higher bid. Reminder: On April 9 -Confirms agreement to sell Barclays Global Fund Advisors (iShares unit) to CVC Capital Partners for $4.4B (£3.3B). || Centrica [CAN.UK]Provides Interim Management Statement - sees FY earnings in line with expectations (FY09 Net £1.1Be, EBITDA £2.8Be). £2.3 billion cost of the investment in British Energy will be funded by approximately £1.1 billion in cash and the disposal of Centrica's 51% stake in SPE to EDF for €1.325 billion. || BT Group [BT] Could lower its final dividend to zero - London Telegraph. The company's pretax profit is seen at around £550M, which is a decline from £2B y/y. || Lonmin [LMI.UK] Reports H1 Operating Loss $142M v Loss $54Me, Rev $436M v $434.0Me, announces 2 for 9 rights issue to raise $457M (18.2% of enlarged share capital). || ICAP [IAP.UK] Offers £830M in cash for LCH Clearnet - FT. Company has been rumoured as a bidder for LCH Clearnet as far back as February. || Tui Ag [TUI1.GE] Reports Q1 Adj EBITA Loss €324M v loss €285Me, Rev €3.08B v €3.14Be. Trading since last update remains robust, with volumes in the last eight weeks tracking ahead of the cumulative position. Says remains well placed to meet the board's expectations for the year ended Sept 30, 2009. ||

- Speakers: ECB's Ordonez commented that he saw certain improvements in 'soft' economic indicators and reiterated the view that Q1 GDP in Eurozone was the bottom. Central Banks need to maintain caution on any economic outlook. He reiterated the central bank's view that does not see any big risk of deflation in Eurozone and added that there was also no inflation risk in foreseeable future || Iceland Central Bank commented that Euro adoption is seen as possibility within 4 years, but FX stability remains its priority || Investor George Soros commented that the USD was already weak, and would not likely lose further ground against Euro. Soros believes Germany should no longer reject notion of EU bonds. He saw Asia as the region to recover first from global crisis and that China would replace the US as engine of global growth || French Fin Min Lagarde noted that Q1 GDP figures likely to be bad , to revise its 2009 forecast before. She reiterated that French banks are adequately capitalized || German Econ Min Guttenberg reiterated the view that its economy is seen bottoming towards end of 2009 || Saudi Fin Min: Does not expect drop in USD significance over coming years || BoJ to set aside 15% of profits for reserves purposes from its prior 5% ratio.

- In Currencies: The USD managed to stem its bearish momentum against the European pairs in the session after opening weaker in Asia. Initial reaction among European dealers is that the recent moves in equities, fixed income and currencies might be a little oversubscribed. Some weekend press articles regarding the potential crisis in the financial markets were not over and that US banks won concessions on stress tests data.

- The EUR/USD tested above the 1.3650 level last tested just ahead of the G20 summit on April 2nd. The pair moved below the 1.3590 level as the NY morning approached. The JPY exhibited broad-based strength in the session, gain 80 pips against the USD to test 97.75, and firmer against its European counterparts with EUR/JPY at 133.00 after probing towards 135 area in Asia. GBP/JPY off over 220 pips to trade at 148.00 after being above 150 earlier today. || In recent session the USD had encountered some weakness as global risk appetite rose. The IMM data revealed that speculative accounts have registered a net USD short position for the first time since July

-In Fixed Income: Government bonds are bid in light volumes this morning in Europe, with yield curves experiencing some corrective bull flattening. The yield on the 10y Bund back to 3.41%, the yield on the 10y Gilt is back to 3.67% and the yield on the 10y Note is back below 3.28%, Ahead of the NY Fed's long end repurchase, the Long Bond yield is about 5pbs lower at 4.22% at the time of writing. In corporates, Banco Santander announced plans to issue a €1.5B 5y covered bond whilst UBS is reportedly planning its own Euro

- In Energy: Norway Preliminary April oil production: 1.99M bpd v 2.15M bpd prior month || South Korean Presidential Aide commented that the county might join 5 oil fields exploration in Uzbekistan || Iran OPEC Governor Mohammad Ali Khatibi stated that he e Expected OPEC either to cut or hold output steady during May 28 meeting. He saw OPEC compliance between 85% to 90% ||

*** NOTES ***

- Global Central Bankers cautiously optimistic on economy

- Traders debate ranges on whether equity markets are in bear market rally or if the rebound is for real.

- China Premier Wen said the government's policy response to the economic crisis goes far beyond its CNY4T stimulus package, new measures are seen emerging steadily through the year

- NYT comments on the US credit card market noting that millions of Americans will not be able to pay off their debts.

- WSJ: Banks won concessions on stress tests. Fed switched measurement of bank capital levels and scaled back the size of capital shortfall following 2 weeks of negotiations.

- Looking Ahead:

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Mar New Housing Price Index M/M: -0.5% expected v -0.7% prior

- 10:00 (UK) BOE to repurchase £3.5B Gilts maturing between 2020 - 2032

-11:00 (US) NY Fed to conduct buyback of T-Bonds maturing between 08/15/2026 - 02/15/2039


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