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Tuesday May 12, 2009 - 10:20:55 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: European Equity markets shake off weak Chinese exports and lower Indian industrial production

Today 05:59am EST/09:59am GMT

European Market Update: European Equity markets shake off weak Chinese exports and lower Indian industrial production


- (IN) Indian March Industrial Production -2.3% v -0.7%e; largest decline in 16 years

- (BE) Belgium Apr Unemployment Rate: % v 7.3% prior

- (JP) Japan Apr Prelim Machine Tool Orders: -80.4% v -85.2% prior

- (GE) German Apr Final CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.7%e

- (GE) German CPI - EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.7%e

- (GE) Apr Wholesale Price Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -8.1% v -8.2%e

- (FR) Apr Bank of France Bus Sentiment: 75 v 75e

- (FR) France March Central Govt Balance: -€43.7B v -€29.9B prior

- (SP) Spain Mar House Transactions Y/Y: -24.3% v -38.6% prior

- (CZ) Czech April CPI M/M: -0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 2.0%e

- (CZ) Czech Apr Unemployment Rate: 7.9% v 7.8%e

- (CZ) Czech Mar Industrial Output Y/Y: -17.0% v -17.5%e

- (HU) Hungarian Apr Consumer Prices M/M: 0.8% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.4% v 2.9%e

- (NE) Dutch Mar Industrial Production M/M: 0.1% v -2.2% prior; Y/Y: -12.1% v -12.6% prior; Industrial Sales Y/Y: -19.5% v -27.2% prior

- (SW) Swedish Apr CPI- Headline Rate M/M; 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.1%e

- (SW) Swedish Apr CPI - Underlying Inflation M/M: 0.3% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.5%e; CPI Level: 299.3 v 299.4e

- (UK) March Visible Trade Balance: -£6.6B v -£7.2Be; Trade Balance Non EU: -£3.3B v -£4.2Be; Total Trade Balance: -£2.5B v -£3.0Be

- (UK) DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y: -13.6% v -13.0%e

- (UK) Mar Industrial Production M/M: -0.6% v -0.9%e; Y/Y: -12.4% v -12.9%e

- (UK) Mar Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.1% v -0.8%e; Y/Y: -12.9% v -14.0%e


- In equities: Equity markets opened convincingly to the downside following bearish pre-market trading. In themes continuing through from yesterday, risk aversion conversations have made a strong comeback. WSJ stories indicating the potential risk in the European banking sector as compared to the US sector, based on the lack of a comparable 'stress tests' and the failure of European banks to raise capital to the extent seen in the US have added weight to Tier 1 financial names on all three exchanges. Disappointing earnings out of EAD's [EAD.FR], Q-Cells [QCE.GE], Fraport [FRA.GE] and comments regarding debt concerns out of VW [VOW.GE] added to the downside momentum in early equity trading. Better than expected April BRC retail numbers provided lightness to that sector, with Marks and Spencer [MKS.UK] trading higher, but gains remained localized. Bourses dropped to the -1% level by 3:15EST before making a bounce. Markets continued that upward movement with the CAC and DAX recovering all their losses and turning positive by 3:40EST. In that move, banking and financial names recovered, while automotive names in the CAC [UG.FR], [RNO.FR] followed strength out of Fiat [F.IT] in Milan and pushed higher. In the DAX, market chatter regarding Deutsche Telecom [DTE.GE] and continued strength following earnings out of Deutsche Bourse [DB1.GE] rallied that market. European bourses continued their enthusiasm through the first half of 4:00EST, then being aided by better than expected Industrial and Manufacturing data out of the UK past 4:30EST sent markets to their then session highs. Enthusiasm showed some waning past 4:45EST with a slow drift off those post UK data highs. Results in line out of Australia regarding its 2009 budget deficits and GDP forecasts provided little new momentum to European equity markets with a gradually selling continuing through the bourses. By 5:30 the FTSE and CAC had returned to effectively flat on the session with only the DAX holding on to wider gains.

- In individual stocks: EAD's [EAD.FR] Reports Q1 Net €170.0M v €158.0Me, Rev €8.5B v €9.5Be, Backlog €413B v €400B q/q, Expects Airbus to capture up to 300 new gross orders in 2009. Revised industrial plans to complete A400M program could lead to substantial charges in H1 of 2009. || Babcock Intl [BAB.UK] Reports FY09 Op Profit £147.3M v £137Me, Rev £1.9B v £1.9Be, raises FY08 dividend 25% to 14.4p. Order book at £5.7B. Chairman: We anticipate increasing pressure for improved efficiency in public-sector spend will further increase the opportunities available to us. || VW [VOW.GE] Peich: Porsche group must lower debt burden before integrating with VW. CEO: Expect combined group to be world's largest automaker. VW-Porsche combination should not include 3rd party investors. Porsche becoming brand of VW is only 1 option open to the firm. See Fiat's moves to combine Chrysler and OPEL as 'unhealthy,' to fail globally. ||

- Speakers: Australia's Swan released the details to the 2009 budget with the deficit to be A$57.6B (in line with press speculation). Swan saw GDP contracting by 0.5% in 2009-2010 period. Unemployment seen at 8.25 and rising toward 8.5% by 2011 || S&P stated that Australia's sovereign rating unaffected by budget details of higher deficit and higher debt issuance.

- In Currencies: A degree of risk appetite resurfaced during the European morning as traders seemed impressed by US banks' ability to raise capital following the stress test results. Also contributing to the USD's and JPY's soft tone were lingering concerns over the revised US deficit projections issued by the US budget office on Monday. Despite some optimistic economic growth outlook, the Administration widened its deficit projections.

- Dealers noting that Fed's Bernanke talked up USD presumably to help funding the massive budget deficits following the US budget office revisions.

- GBP sentiment helped by its April RICS house price data. GBP/USD held the 1.5075 level for the second day in a row and probed back above the 1.52 handle during the morning. The production data also provided some upward momentum for the pound. GBP/USD tested the 1.5300 level and EUR/GBP cross dipped towards 0.8930 level during the morning.

- Both CAD and AUD related pairs were higher in the session aided by higer energy prices and metals. NYMEX Jun crude futures tested $59.50 and Spot Gold rose back towards the $920/oz area. The AUD did retrace from session highs following the release of the 2009 budget details from Aussy Treasurer official Swan.

-In Fixed Income: With equities and commodities catching a bid, a weaker USD and JPY, Government bonds have been offered in Europe this morning, completing the risk appetite scenario. Dealers noted that the belly bearishly leading the way in the session. The UK sold £2.2B in 2030 Gilts with strong results, and the Netherlands successfully sold €3.3B in 2012 DSL. For debt investors hungry for yield, Australian Government Bond markets are set to re-apprear in a big way with today's budget forecasting total issuance of A$60B in the upcoming fiscal year. ||U.K. government's latest gilt auction attractedsolid demand and the June Gilts recovered from session lows as a result. The bid-to-cover ratio came in at 2.24 times, up from 1.37 at the previous auction of this bond. June Gilts near its best levels for the session at 119.00, but still off 11 ticks from Monday's close.

- In Energy: IEA's Tanaka reiterated his view that it was unlikely to again cut demand forecast for crude further. Comments are in line with his April 25th view. || Iran first nuclear power plant to commence generating electricity by October according to the Iranian press reports. Etemaad reports the plant in the southern city of Bushehr will start producing power by Oct. 23rd and cites Gholam Reza Aghazadeh, head of the Iran's Atomic Energy Organization. Article noted that Iran started test operations at the 1,000-megawatt plant in late February. Tests at the Russian-built site were expected to last between four and seven months ||

*** NOTES ***

- China exports decline by larger amount expected. India Mar Industrial production declines by its largest amount in 16 years.

- Bank of America raises funds by selling stake in China Construction Bank

- Reportedly EU to stress test European banking system by September and tests reportedly not to test individual banks, but rather the systemic nature of system

- Equity markets seem to be the main driver in the session with commodities and currencies following their lead.

- Looking Ahead:

- 7:00 (SA) South African Mar Manufacturing Production: M/M: % v -0.6%e; Y/Y: % v -12.3%e

- 8:20 (US) Fed's Lockhart to speak at conference in Atlanta

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian March International Merchandise Trade: C$0.5B expected v C$0.1B prior

- 8:30 (US) March Trade Balance (last -$26B)

- 8:30 (US) Fed;'s Rosengen to speak in Atlanta

- 8:30 (EU) ECB's Tumpell-Gugerell to speak in Brussels

- 10:00 (US) May IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 51.0 expected v 49.1 prior

- 11:00 (EU) ECB's Weber to speak in Munich

- 11:00 (US) NY Fed to repurchase T-Notes maturing between 05/31/2012 - 08/31/2013


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